US CPI data released Wednesday! Combined with major Hong Kong stock earnings reports, what should yo
HK Stock Warrants & CBBCs Spotlight | Which stocks have reached the critical level where "holding support signals a trade entry, while a breakdown calls for a change in direction"?
I actually quite enjoy this kind of market condition.
Not because the market is rising, but because some stocks have moved to very clear technical levels.
If support holds, you can execute a trading plan; if it breaks, don't fight the trend.
Today I will focus specifically on five stocks: Tencent, SMIC, BYD, Meituan, and HKEX.
Tencent closed today at HK$461.60, with a low of 456.20 yuan。
Down over the past 5 days, 6.22%short-term momentum has clearly weakened.
However, one factor cannot be overlooked: net inflows from major institutional funds today remain around 311 million yuan, marking six consecutive days of net inflows.
Therefore, I would not simply interpret this as a "full-scale capital exodus."
For the short term, the most direct indicator is:
Only if the 456 yuan level holds is there a case for a rebound.
The first resistance level above is today's high of approximately 467 yuan。
If it fails to break through 467, the so-called rebound is merely a weak pullback.
If 456 is breached, do not force a buy just because "Tencent has fallen significantly."
A significant drop is never a reason to buy.
SMIC closed today at 67.40 yuan, up 3.22%, with turnover of approximately 4.494 billion yuan, with net inflow of main force funds reaching approximately 561 million yuan。
Is the market strong today?
Yes, it is.
However, just because a stock is up 3% doesn't mean you should chase it.
Today's high 68.50 yuan。
So the current trading logic is actually very simple:
A breakout is only confirmed if it clears 68.50.
If it keeps hitting resistance near 68, the short-term trend remains confined to the top of the range.
Look for support below, first around 65.3 to 65.4.
Therefore, SMIC is currently a very typical stock for the strategy of "chasing on upside breakout and exiting on downside breakdown."
BYD closed today at 89.60 yuan,with virtually no change.
However, it fell over the past 5 days, 4.48%and also declined over the past 10 days. 4.27%。
Today's high 90.65 yuan,, with a low of and the low was 88.80 yuan.。
This level is actually quite useful.
The area near 90 to 90.7 remains the first short-term resistance zone.
If it fails to hold above 90, the stock price will likely continue to consolidate at lower levels.
Conversely, if 88.8 is broken again, the downward trend may persist.
Therefore, if trading BYD using warrants or CBBCs, I would not rush to enter a position at the midpoint of 89.
It is usually easier to let the market choose its direction than to try to predict it for them.
Meituan closed today at HK$91.65, down 1.50%, with the low reaching 89.80 yuan。
The 90-yuan level is worth noting.
On one hand, it is a round number; on the other, after briefly breaking below it today, the price closed back up at 91.65.
Therefore, the most practical question at hand is:
Was the break below 90 yuan a false breakdown, or will it fail to hold next time?
Upside resistance should first be watched around 92.3 to 93 yuan.
As long as the price remains between 90 and 93, it may not be wise to heavily position for a directional bet too early.
This is particularly important for warrants and CBBCs.
If the underlying stock is trading sideways, buying products sensitive to time decay means you might get the direction right but still lose money due to time erosion.
HKEX closed today at HKD 406.60, up 0.30%, with a low of HKD 400.60。
The market loves to talk about "watching HKEX at the 400 level."
It actually tested that level once today.
But after the test, it closed back at 406.6.
So for now, at least, the HKD 400 support is holding.
The first resistance above is around 407, followed by the previous high zone.
With HKEX moving like this, I prefer to wait for confirmation.
I'll consider upside only if it stabilizes near 400; if it officially breaks below 400, the original support thesis will need to be re-evaluated.
It’s not because 400 is a magic number.
Rather, today’s price action has already told you that there are buyers stepping in at this level.
These five stocks actually share one common trait:
It’s not that they are all bullish.
But rather, each has a relatively clear technical trend line.
When trading structured products like warrants and CBBCs, the biggest fear isn’t getting the direction wrong once.
The real danger is:
Even when the market clearly signals that your original thesis is invalid, you refuse to adjust your stance simply because you’re already holding the position.
The underlying stock is the underlying stock; the derivative product is the derivative product.
It is usually much more logical to first establish a "stop-loss if I'm wrong" rule, and then decide whether to use calls, puts, bull contracts, or bear contracts, rather than picking the product first and then looking for reasons to justify it.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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