Daily Options Outlook | NBIS earnings imminent, up over 8% in pre-market trading; Super Micro Computer strengthens post-earnings; market awaits July CPI data

Today's Options Opportunity Outlook

On the macro front,$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$Up 0.53% in pre-market trading,$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$Up 0.16% in pre-market trading.U.S. July CPI data will be released at 20:30 Beijing time,The market expects overall CPI to rise 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI rising approximately 0.32% month-over-month. The data will directly impact September interest rate expectations, and high-valuation tech stocks and short-term options may rapidly reprice after the release. Options market data shows the QQQ Put/Call volume ratio from the previous trading session rose to 1.02, with Implied Volatility (IV) reaching 22.19%.

At the individual stock level, $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ The stock rose approximately 9.4% in pre-market trading. The company's adjusted EPS for the fourth fiscal quarter reached $1.70, significantly beating market expectations, while revenue came in at approximately $11.12 billion, slightly below the expected $11.73 billion. The primary drivers of the stock price increase remain margin improvement and growth expectations for the next fiscal year. The company previously disclosed that gross margins are projected to reach 15% to 17%, far exceeding the prior guidance of 8.2% to 8.4%, and stated that new quarterly orders exceeded $60 billion.

The market is reassessing whether Super Micro Computer can convert its massive AI server orders into sustained profits. Recent call option trading has been notably active, and the pre-market rise may include short covering. If trading volume fails to keep pace after the open, the gains could easily narrow. Only if the stock price holds the earnings gap on heavy volume will the logic of margin recovery continue to drive valuation higher.

$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ The company announced its quarterly results before the market open, with the stock rising 8.6% in pre-market trading. The market had previously expected revenue of approximately $592 million and a loss per share of about $0.70. NBIS has experienced significant stock price volatility recently, with market focus centered on annualized revenue, data center commissioning progress, power capacity, and whether capital expenditures can be converted into recognizable revenue.

Options trading and open interest are concentrated around the $200 level, which may serve as a key dividing line post-earnings. Recently, there has been simultaneous buying activity in $230 calls and $165 puts, along with selling pressure in $240-$250 calls, indicating that institutions remain optimistic about upside potential while maintaining significant downside protection. During the previous decline, the proportion of put options actually decreased, suggesting no widespread panic in the market. Today, investors should wait for the full earnings report and management guidance to be released. If revenue growth is accompanied by higher capital expenditures, whether the stock price can rise will depend on when new computing power begins contributing to revenue.

$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Pre-market gains stand at 2.9%. Capital continues to trade on expectations of AI memory demand, tight supply, and sustained high storage prices. Micron previously stated that supply tightness could extend until 2027 and has locked in some demand through long-term agreements, making it a highly elastic target in the AI capital expenditure theme. Options market data shows the stock's Put/Call volume ratio rising to 0.82, with implied volatility reaching 68.59%.

Options trading volume has increased significantly. In terms of unusual options activity, approximately 2,654 near-term call contracts were bought on Tuesday, with a transaction value of about $5.84 million. Simultaneously, there were several million-dollar-sized put trades and call sales, indicating that while capital is betting on upside, it is also hedging against pullbacks caused by the CPI release. Open interest is concentrated around the $1,000 level; although the current stock price still has room to reach this area, high volatility will amplify time value decay. Key observations today include the direction of US Treasury yields after the CPI release and whether MU can maintain its pre-market gains. If yields rise, storage stocks with significant recent cumulative gains may see rapid profit-taking.

Yesterday’s Options Market Recap

Index Options

On August 11 (Eastern Time), trading volume in the US index options market increased, with a total of 5.53 million contracts traded. The Put/Call ratio declined to 0.91.

In the upcoming expiration cycle, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Options volume distribution shows the following characteristics: peak put volume at the 7,700 strike and peak call volume at the 7,800 strike.

Single-Stock Options

$Hertz Global (HTZ.US)$Closed up 15.57%, with 518,000 option contracts traded; the put/call volume ratio rose to 0.32. Hertz Global shares surged 23%; analysts lowered the target price to $2.50, as retail investors focus on high short interest driving a short squeeze.

$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ Closed down 3.93%, with 861,300 option contracts traded; the put/call volume ratio rose to 0.84. Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund disclosed holding $1.2 billion worth of SpaceX shares; Musk stated that AI revenue will surpass other SpaceX businesses in September.

Options Volume Rankings

Among the top 10 stocks by option trading volume, $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ had the highest put/call volume ratio, reaching 1.04. Phillip Securities and Daiwa Securities raised Palantir's target price to $215.

The highest put/call open interest ratio is$Micron Technology (MU.US)$, reaching 1.12. Mizuho analysts reaffirmed Micron's "Outperform" rating with a target price of $1,375, believing that tight supply in the DRAM/NAND market will persist until 2027.

Implied Volatility Leaderboard (underlying market cap > $1 billion and options volume > 100,000)

$Fermi (FRMI.US)$had the highest implied volatility, reaching 120.63%, a decrease of 4.26% from the previous trading day. Fermi signed its first 15-year lease agreement with TensorWave, with total contract revenue of approximately $6.5 billion, and formed a 2.6 GW power strategic alliance with Hillcore.

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$saw the largest increase in implied volatility, reaching 95.53%, an increase of 1.04% from the previous trading day. Super Micro Computer's Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.70 exceeded expectations, and its FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance of $14.5–15.5 billion surpassed market expectations.

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Risk Warning

An option is a contract that grants the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date. Option prices are influenced by multiple factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility.

Implied volatility reflects the market’s expectation of future price fluctuations over a given period. It is derived by reverse-engineering the Black-Scholes option pricing model and is generally viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate greater volatility, they may be willing to pay higher premiums for options to hedge risk, resulting in higher implied volatility.

Traders and investors use implied volatility to assess the attractiveness of option prices, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer
This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, advice, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, you may not be able to avoid losses. Market conditions may prevent the execution of such orders. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet such margin requirements within the stipulated time, your open positions may be liquidated. You remain fully liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Therefore, you should thoroughly research and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully read"Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options"。

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