US CPI data released Wednesday! Combined with major Hong Kong stock earnings reports, what should yo
In the summer of 2026, global stock markets witnessed a bizarre 'sell-the-news' spectacle.
SpaceX released its first earnings report since going public: revenue jumped 92% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA skyrocketed by 191%. SK Hynix followed closely behind: revenue grew by 257%, and operating profit surged by 557%, both setting all-time records. Despite these being the strongest financial results in their histories, both stocks plunged—SpaceX dropped more than 8% in after-hours trading, while SK Hynix tumbled as much as 19% during the session.
This wasn’t accidental—it was a meticulously orchestrated 'expectation gap' harvesting game in an institution-dominated market.
Why did this happen? I believe there are three core reasons:
First,Expectations had been pushed to impossible heights.SK Hynix’s share price had nearly multiplied tenfold before its earnings release, and SpaceX’s market cap briefly approached $3 trillion. The market had already priced in 'explosive earnings growth.' The only real question left was whether the results could surpass those already extremely optimistic expectations. 'Record-breaking but below expectations' is effectively seen by institutions as'bad news'
Second,The seemingly impressive figures don't hold up under closer scrutiny.SK Hynix reported a staggering 1,242% surge in net profit, but 62 trillion Korean won of that came froma one-time gain from the sale of its stake in Kioxia. Sustainable operating profit fell short of expectations. Although SpaceX's revenue is booming, its capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion, and its AI business is burning through over $45 billion annually. At this point, the market is asking: where is the quality and sustainability of growth?
Thirdly,When good news is fully priced in, it becomes the biggest bearish signal.When long-term supply agreements lock out pricing flexibility, when share lock-ups are about to expire, and when the narrative around China’s push for domestic memory self-reliance starts gaining traction, even the slightest flaw gets magnified by panic.
So how should we respond to this kind of 'earnings trap'?
First,Never go all-in betting on earnings results before they’re released.If the stock price has already risen sharply one to two weeks ahead of earnings, consider gradually reducing your position to a level that feels comfortable. If results beat expectations, you’ll still have exposure to capture gains; if they disappoint, you’ll retain enough dry powder to act.
Second.Learn to quickly distinguish between 'real earnings' and 'illusory growth.'Don’t focus on net profit—look at operating profit; don’t fixate on historical data—pay attention to next quarter’s guidance; strip away one-time gains to see the true trend of core operations.
Third,After a sharp drop, respond based on the underlying cause.If it’s a fundamental collapse (e.g., a turning point in the business model), never catch a falling knife. If it’s an emotional overreaction (with strong underlying operational metrics intact), wait until panic selling clears out, then build a position in three tranches using a pyramid strategy.
Fourth,Buy on rumors, sell on news.In an institution-dominated market, earnings reports aren’t 'report cards'—they’re tools for managing expectations. On the day results are released, the safest move is often to reduce exposure and wait on the sidelines until institutions have battled it out; then ride the emerging trend for a modest gain.
Remember: the retail investor’s only edge isn’t speed of information—it’s the freedom to stay out of the market. When you don’t understand what’s happening, holding cash is itself a strategy.
Content Disclosure: Personal opinion
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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