Simultaneous pressure on the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz drives international oil prices higher

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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump says U.S. military has 100% control of the Strait of Hormuz; oil prices surge, fueling inflation concerns; U.S. equities dip slightly with tech under pressure

Markets are focused on this week’s inflation data, with rate hike expectations still influenced by both employment trends and oil prices.

Following the significantly weaker-than-expected July nonfarm payrolls report, markets have substantially reduced near-term rate hike probabilities.

This week will see the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which will be key to pricing the next policy move.

Oil prices surged sharply due to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially reigniting inflation expectations.

Market ImpactWeakening labor market data and rising oil prices are creating opposing forces, leaving the Fed’s near-term path uncertain and increasing market sensitivity to incoming data.

Trump claimed the U.S. military has 100% control over the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply higher

Trump stated that the only force currently controlling the Strait of Hormuz is the U.S. Navy, whose blockade is 'impregnable,' like a 'steel wall.' The U.S. has swept the entire strait for mines, making it open to non-Iranian vessels—but entry into Iranian ports remains prohibited.

Trump also demanded that Iran compensate for casualties and damages caused by related conflicts, adding a new variable to negotiations over reopening the strait.

Iran, meanwhile, reiterated its conditions for reopening the strait and said it is close to finalizing an agreement with Oman on a new shipping route.

Market ImpactUncertainty over actual navigation through the strait persists, driving a sharp rebound in oil prices and reigniting inflationary pressures and geopolitical risk premiums, intensifying short-term volatility in energy markets.

U.S. stocks pulled back on Monday, with divergence between tech and energy sectors

All three major U.S. equity indices closed slightly lower amid inflation concerns triggered by rising oil prices.

Intel announced it may sell $15 billion worth of stock to support its AI and manufacturing businesses, weighing on its share price.

Stocks like Berkshire Hathaway, which reported better-than-expected earnings, held up relatively well.

Market ImpactGeopolitical tensions and inflation expectations are driving market sentiment, with capital rotating between energy and tech sectors, keeping the overall market cautious.

Spot goldApprox. USD 4,414 per ounce, +0.6%

Spot SilverApprox. USD 65 per ounce, +0.2%

WTI Crude OilApprox. USD 82.2 per barrel, +0.07%

Brent crudeApprox. USD 83.98 per barrel, +0.12%

US Dollar Index (DXY)Approx. 99.75, -0.06%

Driver AnalysisTrump claimed the U.S. military has 100% control over the Strait of Hormuz and will maintain the blockade. Combined with ongoing disagreements over compensation, the outlook for reopening the strait remains uncertain, driving a sharp rise in crude oil prices. Gold is caught between a stronger dollar and safe-haven demand, resulting in relatively restrained performance. The asset linkage logic unfolds as follows: geopolitical deadlock → rising oil prices → higher inflation expectations → support for the dollar, while risk assets come under pressure. Short-term commodity volatility will heavily depend on actual developments regarding strait navigation and this week’s inflation data.

BTCApprox. USD 64,037, -1.55%

ETHApprox. USD 1,874, +2.12%

Total cryptocurrency market capitalizationApprox. USD 2.27 trillion, -0.4%

Market liquidation situation: Total liquidations in the past 24 hours amounted to $205 million, with short positions accounting for $59.25 million

Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Heatmap: Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,950. Dense long-position liquidation levels lie between $63,300 and $63,700; a break below $63,500 could trigger cascading long liquidations. Significant short-position liquidation pressure exists between $64,300 and $65,000; a breakout above $64,400 may further fuel a short squeeze, indicating elevated short-term volatility risk.

Spot ETF net inflows/outflows: Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $91 million over the past 24 hours

Driver Analysis: Rising oil prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty have dampened risk appetite, keeping the crypto market range-bound at elevated levels. Bitcoin is holding above $64,500, while Ethereum shows limited upside elasticity. Continued net inflows into ETFs provide underlying support, and leveraged liquidation volumes remain manageable. On the macro front, weakening labor data offsets upward oil price pressure, suggesting crypto may continue trading in a range in the near term, with focus on this week’s inflation data for its impact on liquidity expectations.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at approximately 53,976 points (-0.1%), posting a slight pullback

S&P 500: Closed at approximately 7,753 points (-0.1%), retreating from a record high

Nasdaq: Closed at approximately 26,605 points (-0.3%), under pressure in the tech sector

NVDA: Approximately $217.55 (-2.86%)

AAPL: Approximately $308.26 (-1.62%)

MSFT: Approximately $506.06 (+1.21%)

GOOGL: Approximately USD 357.52 (+0.91%)

AMZN: Approximately USD 278.09 (+1.32%)

META: Approximately USD 594.92 (+0.48%)

TSLA: Approximately USD 330.88 (+0.70%)

Performance Summary and Driver AnalysisU.S. equities experienced a modest pullback on Monday, with the Nasdaq posting a relatively larger decline. NVIDIA and Apple came under notable pressure, while Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Tesla all posted gains, reflecting continued divergence within the tech sector. A sharp rise in oil prices stoked inflation concerns, partially offsetting prior dovish expectations driven by weak employment data. The market is weighing geopolitical risks against macroeconomic indicators, with capital flowing toward cloud and software names offering higher earnings visibility.

Energy

Representative stocks: Crude oil and energy-related equities broadly strengthened, with select names leading gains.

Key drivers: Trump claimed the U.S. military has '100% control' over the Strait of Hormuz and would maintain its blockade. Coupled with ongoing disagreements over compensation, the actual resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. Markets have repriced in a geopolitical risk premium, pushing oil prices sharply higher and directly boosting the energy sector. Near-term performance remains highly dependent on negotiation progress and the actual restoration of shipping access.

Semiconductor

Representative stocks: NVIDIA (-2.86%), with related semiconductor stocks broadly correcting.

Key drivers: Oil prices rose significantly amid the Hormuz impasse, reigniting market concerns over inflation and thereby impacting expectations for future liquidity and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Although weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll data had previously supported sentiment, the rapid shift in macro narratives triggered profit-taking and position adjustments in high-valuation AI hardware names, weighing on the broader sector.

Tech Software/Cloud

Representative stocks: Microsoft (+1.21%) and Amazon (+1.32%) showed relatively resilient performance.

Driving factors: Amid rising geopolitical and inflation uncertainties, capital is favoring companies that have already monetized revenue and possess clear commercialization pathways. The sustained high growth of Azure and AWS has endowed cloud giants with relatively defensive characteristics, creating a stark contrast with the highly volatile and richly valued hardware sector.

1. NVIDIA (NVDA) – Down nearly 3%, under pressure in the semiconductor space

Event summaryNVIDIA’s stock declined approximately 2.86% to $217.55, making it one of the weaker performers among mega-cap tech stocks. Concerns are mounting that the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices higher, potentially reigniting inflation expectations and thereby affecting future liquidity conditions and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

Market AnalysisPreviously, softer-than-expected nonfarm payroll data had boosted risk appetite and led to a modest recovery in sentiment toward AI hardware. However, the sharp rise in oil prices quickly shifted the macro narrative, prompting investors to reassess interest rate paths and valuation pressures. As a high-valuation, high-beta leader in computing power, NVIDIA tends to be among the first to come under pressure when inflation concerns intensify. While the long-term demand thesis for AI compute remains intact, its share price is highly sensitive in the near term to macro liquidity and interest rate expectations, with profit-taking and position adjustments jointly driving recent moves.

Investment InsightWatch this week’s CPI and PPI data for their impact on inflation expectations, as well as whether major customers’ capital expenditure guidance can continue to support the demand narrative. Volatility may intensify around the data releases.

2. Apple (AAPL) – Down more than 1.6%, lagging behind peers

Event summaryApple’s stock fell approximately 1.62% to $308.26, underperforming most other tech giants and continuing its recent trend of relative weakness.

Market AnalysisDuring periods when risk appetite narrows and capital flows toward cloud and software names, consumer electronics and hardware companies typically see limited upside elasticity. Although Apple maintains robust cash flows and a strong services moat, the market is currently focused on marginal changes in hardware demand and whether the rollout of AI features will meaningfully accelerate the upgrade cycle. Compared with companies already delivering tangible cloud revenue growth, Apple has received comparatively less investor favor in the current macro environment.

Investment InsightContinued monitoring is needed on upcoming product cycles, the sustainability of services growth, and the actual impact of Apple Intelligence and other AI features on user upgrade intentions.

3. Microsoft (MSFT) – Up over 1%, relatively resilient

Event summaryMicrosoft’s share price rose approximately 1.21% to USD 506.06, demonstrating resilience amid a broad tech sector pullback and emerging as one of the relatively defensive large-cap tech stocks.

Market AnalysisMicrosoft is viewed by investors as a high-conviction play within the tech sector, supported by Azure cloud business consistently exceeding expectations and tangible progress in AI commercialization. In an environment marked by rising oil prices, inflation concerns, and declining risk appetite, cloud and software giants with clear revenue realization pathways tend to command a relative premium—sharply contrasting with hardware names under pressure due to valuation and macro sensitivity.

Investment InsightEarnings delivery capability remains the core criterion for market pricing at present. Key focus areas going forward include whether cloud revenue growth can continue to offset capital expenditures and how visible AI-related revenue contributions become.

4. Amazon (AMZN) – Up over 1.3%, following the cloud narrative

Event summaryAmazon’s share price increased approximately 1.32% to USD 278.09, significantly outperforming the hardware segment and continuing its relative strength driven by cloud business momentum.

Market AnalysisThe long-term thesis of AWS’s strong growth and AI infrastructure investments continues to underpin the stock. Amid escalating geopolitical and inflation uncertainties, capital is favoring names with already-realized revenues and clear commercialization roadmaps. Amazon thus exhibits strong defensive growth characteristics, diverging from highly volatile, richly valued hardware stocks.

Investment InsightKey focus areas include whether AWS growth can continue to justify elevated capital expenditures and the resilience of retail and advertising segments amid macro volatility. The alignment between cloud capabilities and AI monetization remains central to medium- to long-term valuation.

5. Tesla (TSLA) – Modest gain

Event summaryTesla’s share price rose approximately 0.70% to USD 330.88, showing relative stability without significant volatility.

Market AnalysisTesla embodies multiple narratives—electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and humanoid robotics—and its high-beta nature makes it particularly responsive during rapid rebounds in risk appetite. However, its upside tends to be constrained when risk sentiment weakens or macro uncertainty rises. With markets cautious amid rising oil prices and inflation worries, Tesla has avoided a notable pullback but also failed to extend its prior strength. The long-term story remains intact, though near-term pricing is increasingly driven by sentiment and macro liquidity conditions.

Investment InsightThe stock price exhibits high volatility, requiring continuous monitoring of actual delivery data, progress in autonomous driving, and the pace of Optimus commercialization to validate the realization of its long-term narrative.

1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold an open meeting at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on August 14 to consider whether to issue a new proposed rule that would create a tailored offering framework for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets.

2. A whale transferred 1,275 BTC (USD 81.5 million): 500 BTC (USD 32 million) to FalconX, 274 BTC (USD 17.5 million) to Cumberland’s OTC desk, and 500 BTC (USD 32 million) to a new address (potentially destined for Galaxy Digital).

3. Futures whale 'First Set 10 Big Goals' (@jasonleo) posted that his medium- to long-term outlook remains unchanged—he still considers the current price range a阶段性 bottom. Absent an extreme structural collapse, he maintains his view that Bitcoin’s bottom for this cycle is around USD 58,000. He noted that reducing two-thirds of his position near his cost basis of approximately USD 64,000 was not a directional shift but a proactive risk management move to preserve capacity for extreme scenarios. If market developments align with expectations, he plans to gradually buy back the previously reduced positions.

4. Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, stated the company has adjusted its strategy and now holds USD 4.75 billion in cash, sufficient to cover about 2.7 years of preferred dividend payments. Le said he initially believed investors would highly value Bitcoin for its liquidity and long-term appreciation potential, but institutional investors prioritize cash—prompting the strategic shift. Le positions Strategy as a financial platform built around Bitcoin, not merely a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, with the ambition to become the 'JPMorgan of digital finance.' He envisions an ecosystem akin to Apple’s iPhone, where other firms can build financial products atop Strategy’s infrastructure. Le added that DeFi could expand this ecosystem and ultimately channel more capital into Bitcoin. The company currently holds approximately 840,000 BTC (about 4% of Bitcoin’s ultimate supply), and Le remarked, 'We are now the bellwether—the central bank of Bitcoin.'

5. Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, stated that Circle is undervalued by the market as the stablecoin sector scales toward the multi-trillion-dollar range. Rasmussen forecasts the stablecoin market will grow from roughly USD 300 billion to between USD 3–5 trillion. He believes Circle holds a first-mover advantage due to its existing market share amid the emerging U.S. regulatory framework for stablecoins. Rasmussen sees Circle evolving not only into a stablecoin giant but also a payments powerhouse—its developing payment infrastructure will play a pivotal role in a stablecoin-driven financial system, though investors remain overly focused on its reserve management business.

6. Robert Mitchnick, Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, noted that Bitcoin market sentiment has shown clear but subtle improvement over the past month, and its correlation with U.S. equities is weakening—a healthy sign for Bitcoin’s thesis as a portfolio diversifier and tail-risk hedge. He pointed out that Bitcoin significantly outperformed during July’s sharp AI sector correction, illustrating this decoupling. Despite Bitcoin being down nearly 30% year-to-date and about 50% from a year ago, ETF investors continue to buy: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded USD 853.5 million in inflows last week, their best weekly performance since mid-April. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed USD 693.7 million (over 80%), and Fidelity’s FBTC added USD 116.4 million. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas observed that multiple funds saw daily net inflows following the Coldcard vulnerability disclosure, saying, 'It’s hard not to see a causal relationship.'

7. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that OpenAI has completed an employee share sale transaction worth approximately USD 7 billion as the company considers a Wall Street listing. Two informed sources said the ChatGPT developer did not bring in external investors for this tender offer but instead repurchased shares directly from current and former employees. They added the transaction valued OpenAI at USD 85.2 billion, consistent with its most recent funding round. Large private AI firms periodically allow insiders to sell portions of their holdings. Previously, OpenAI had facilitated secondary transactions with investors like Thrive Capital and SoftBank Group purchasing shares from employees.

This week

United States

CPI and PPI inflation data

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focus on

global

Progress on Hormuz Strait navigation

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Note: After last week’s surprise 23K payroll decline cooled rate hike expectations, further softening in CPI/core CPI combined with resilient consumption could extend the soft-landing trade and support growth stocks; conversely, hotter prints may reignite tightening pricing and pressure high-valuation segments. Market volatility is expected to intensify, with particular attention to how prices react to data and AI guidance that beat or miss expectations.

Analysts widely note that Trump’s claim that US forces have 100% control over the Strait of Hormuz and will maintain the blockade leaves the outlook for reopening unclear, driving a sharp rise in oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns. This partially offsets earlier dovish sentiment from weak jobs data. US equities edged lower, with continued divergence within tech—cloud and software holding up relatively well while hardware faced pressure. Crypto markets remained range-bound at elevated levels, supported by ETF inflows. The consensus view is that geopolitics and inflation data will dominate the near-term narrative, likely amplifying market volatility.

Disclaimer: The above content has been compiled by AI-powered search and verified only by human review prior to publication. It does not constitute any form of investment advice. Data presented herein may inevitably contain inaccuracies; please refer to real-time market data for accuracy.

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