Wuxi Bio | Has already risen for seven consecutive days, yet bear warrant open interest has surged by 133%—who exactly is betting on a top?

Wuxi Bio $WUXI BIO (02269.HK)$ It only rose today by 0.57%, and if judged solely by the gain, it’s actually quite unremarkable amid today’s rising market.

But in fact, it has already risen for seven consecutive days, hitting a new high in over two years. Even more interestingly, as of August 7, bull warrant open interest dropped 30.09% in a single day, while bear warrant open interest surged 133.68%, and has been increasing for five consecutive days.

This is certainly worth discussing.

As the share price keeps rising, why did the market previously see more investors buying bears?

Don't rush to answer 'because retail investors are calling the top.'

The price itself remains relatively strong.

Today's product overview gives Wuxi Bio a short-term risk-reward ratio of 64.7 points, indicating an upward bias.。

Current price is HK$46.12, with first support at HK$45.62 and second support at HK$41.02; the first and second resistance levels both sit at 48.78。

In other words, the current structure is very clear:

As long as HK$45.62 holds, the uptrend remains intact; HK$48.78 is the next real test.

Therefore, even if bear warrant street inventory suddenly increases by 133%, as long as the underlying stock continues to hold above support, you can't conclude 'Wuxi Bio has topped out' based solely on street inventory.

This point is crucial.

The street inventory data is from August 7, while the underlying stock’s price action is from August 10.

In other words, that 133% increase in bear warrants actually represents a group of earlier-established short or hedging positions. We don’t know how many of these positions were still held as of August 10 or whether they’ve already cut their losses.

Therefore, the most reasonable interpretation is:

Some traders started betting on a pullback during the rally, but the stock price so far has not proven them right.

The concentration zones are even more interesting.

Wuxi Bio’s bear warrant concentration zone is located between 52 and 52.95,while the bull warrant concentration zone is much lower, between 27 and 27.98.。

Current price: 46.12.

The market's bearish warrants aren't actually all clustered right around the current price; instead, a more noticeable concentration of positions has formed above the HK$50 level.

This also means that if HK$48.78 is truly broken through, the next upward move won’t just be an ordinary technical breakout—it will gradually approach the dense bearish warrant zone near HK$52.

That’s when the story starts getting interesting.

But until it actually breaks above HK$48.78, there's no need to get ahead of yourself fantasizing about 'killing bears.'

If you're bullish, the three types of call warrants actually represent three completely different mindsets.

In today’s product overview, Wuxi Bio has three representative call warrants that are ideal for comparison.

The first type consists of products with a **strike price around HK$39.9, already in-the-money by approximately 13.5%, an effective gearing of about 3.6x, and implied volatility (IV) of roughly 59.1%**. These products aren’t the most exciting, but because they’re already in-the-money, their response to movements in the underlying stock is relatively direct. If your view is simply that 'as long as HK$45.62 holds, the uptrend can continue,' this category offers a simpler logic.

The second type isStrike price around HK$50, out-of-the-money by approximately 8.4%, gearing of about 3.9x, and IV around 63.9%. This option more closely reflects the belief that 'I think HK$48.78 will be broken, and there will still be further upside afterward.' It’s not extremely out-of-the-money, but if the underlying stock merely trades sideways between HK$46 and HK$48, time decay will start becoming uncomfortable.

The third type has a strike price around HK$52.69, about 14.2% out-of-the-money, leverage of approximately 4x, IV around 62.5%This type is clearly much more aggressive and also carries a higher premium.

Some retail investors, seeing that three call warrants have similar leverage, might think: 'Then I should obviously pick the out-of-the-money one—it’ll explode when the price rises.'

But this is exactly where one can easily fall into a trap.

The leverage among the three warrants only differs from 3.6x to 4x—not enough to justify ignoring how far out-of-the-money they are.Chasing slightly higher leverage by moving from 13.5% in-the-money to 14.2% out-of-the-money may not be a worthwhile trade-off.

What about bear warrants?

The product overview also includes bear warrants with a recall price of approximately HK$52, about 12.75% away from the current price, with leverage of approximately 6.6x, for bearish or hedging reference.

This strike isn't particularly close; indeed, it's safer than chasing the closest-to-the-money bear warrant.

But the issue isn't whether the product itself is usable—it'swhether there's currently sufficient reason to take a short position.。

If the price hasn't yet tested 48.78 and hasn't broken below 45.62, simply buying a bear warrant because 'it’s already had seven consecutive gains' is essentially trying to call the top.

Of course, it feels great if you're right.

However, in derivative trading, what hurts most is often the rationale of 'it’s risen a lot, so it should fall now.'

How would I view the next move?

Very simple.

45.62 is the defensive level, and 48.78 is the breakout level.

If the price holds above 45.62 and then breaks through 48.78, I’ll continue respecting the bullish bias indicated by the 64.7-point structure; at that point, comparing slightly in-the-money calls with calls around HK$50 would be more reasonable than chasing a 14% out-of-the-money product right now.

Conversely, if the price breaks below 45.62, that would be the first genuine signal of weakening after seven consecutive gains, at which point bear warrants or put options would start to have more practical deployment rationale.

As for the 133.68% increase in street float of bear warrants, I’d regard it as today’s most noteworthy 'market contradiction,' but not the answer.

The market can anticipate a top early, but price is the ultimate judge.

Do you feel Wuxi Bio’s seven-day rally has already been too rapid, or as long as 45.62 holds, it’s still too early to side with bear warrants?

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