US CPI data released Wednesday! Combined with major Hong Kong stock earnings reports, what should yo
【This Week's Market Watch】Tencent and U.S. optical communication stocks are about to report earnings—we’ve prepared a practical 'offense-and-defense strategy' for you
Hello, fellow investors!
After the heart-pounding 'rollercoaster' ride in global financial markets in early August, last week finally brought a long-awaited breath of fresh air. Seeing your account net value rebound, many of you likely breathed a small sigh of relief. Yet, in the ever-changing world of finance, is this short-term bounce merely a fleeting 'dead cat bounce' designed to lure buyers in—or the clarion call heralding a new upswing?
To see the path ahead clearly, we must first piece together the subtle clues left by last week’s market action. Next, we’ll provide an in-depth analysis of two major macro storms and two pivotal industry shifts set to ignite the markets this week, along with practical trading guidance to help you navigate volatility and secure consistent gains.
Last Week’s Market Recap
Looking back at last week, global markets staged a compelling 'risk-on recovery play.'
U.S. tech and AI stocks led the rally (QQQ +5.09%, SOXX +7.6%), with NVIDIA (NVDA) rebounding 11.56%, driven by easing geopolitical tensions, declining rate expectations, and the release of forced selling pressure.
On the macro front, the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000, further dampening rate hike expectations; this dovish signal, combined with a sharp drop in oil prices, fueled a strong rebound in gold (GLD +7.25%) and silver (SLV +9.82%).
In terms of sectors, memory stocks (SNDK, WDC) faced post-earnings selling pressure as investor focus shifted toward earnings sustainability; export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo pushed copper mining stocks (COPX) up 11.63%; memory leaders saw notable post-earnings sell-offs, reflecting a market pivot from 'whether earnings are growing' to 'how long current high margins can last'; meanwhile, Hong Kong-listed innovative drug companies (e.g., WuXi AppTec group) delivered solid order books and tangible earnings, driving a standout independent rally.
These developments have effectively laid the groundwork for this week’s market direction.
II. Key Macro Events and Market Opportunities
Event 1: U.S. July CPI data is about to be released—'weak employment' and 'rate cut expectations' face their ultimate test
This week’s most globally anticipated macroeconomic event is undoubtedly the upcoming release of the U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI). Markets are currently immersed in an optimistic narrative that ‘weaker employment data → imminent Fed rate cuts,’ and this inflation report will serve as the ‘verdict’ determining whether this logic can continue.
– Opportunity Insights：
If core CPI remains moderate or even comes in below expectations, it would pave the way for a September rate cut, potentially driving U.S. long-end yields and real rates further downward. This would directly and materially benefit gold, high-duration biotech stocks, and growth-oriented tech equities.Conversely, if inflation data surprises with a rebound, market optimism around rate cuts would be severely undermined, and some of last week’s gains in tech stocks and precious metals could quickly reverse in the short term.
– Investor Focus：
◦ Investors should closely monitor real interest rate movements during this period. If inflation remains mild, they could consider allocating togold ETFs or U.S. Treasury ETFsto hedge against volatility. Additionally, pay attention to next week’s PPI and retail sales data releases to see if market sentiment shifts from the current ‘bad news = rate cut bullishness’ to a more pessimistic ‘bad news = economic recession and earnings downgrades’ outlook.
Screening criteria: As of Hong Kong market close on August 10, 2026, Futubull app → Market → ETFs → U.S. → Thematic ETFs → Top 5 by AUM
Screening criteria: As of Hong Kong market close on August 10, 2026, Futubull app → Market → ETFs → U.S. → Thematic ETFs → Top 5 by AUM
Event 2: The Japanese yen experiences wide-ranging volatility—beware of a second wave of global carry trade unwinds
Last week’s rare joint intervention by U.S. and Japanese authorities has clearly capped the upside potential of the USD/JPY exchange rate. Although a devastating wave of unwinding carry trades has not yet erupted, the yen—the 'beast'—is clearly not fully tamed.
– Opportunity Insights：
The yen acts as a hidden liquidity tap for global financial markets. Should the yen experience another bout of irrational, rapid appreciation in the near term, it would force numerous offshore hedge funds—which borrowed cheap yen to invest in high-beta U.S. equities and cryptocurrencies—to deleverage and unwind positions. This spillover effect would subject richly valued U.S. tech stocks to indiscriminate short-term selling pressure.
– Investor Focus：
◦ Investor Focus: Investors are advised to remain cautious and treatUSD/JPYexchange rate volatility as a key risk monitoring indicator. When trading U.S.-listed AI leaders, highly elastic tech stocks, or crypto assets, ensure sufficient margin of safety and avoid chasing prices too aggressively in assets with extremely high capital concentration.
II. Key Industry Developments and Market Opportunities
Event 1: Intensive Validation Across the AI Supply Chain – Taiwan Semiconductor Revenue, CoreWeave Earnings, and Optical Communications Sector Reports
AI remains the core engine driving this tech rally. On August 10, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Taiwan Semiconductor will release its July revenue figures, and the popular U.S.-listed stock $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ and $NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ CoreWeave will also report earnings; additionally, $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ 、 $Coherent (COHR.US)$ leading optical communications companies will successively announce their results.
– Opportunity Insights：
Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue will directly reveal the true strength of demand for AI chips and advanced-node processes. CoreWeave’s earnings focus lies in how quickly its backlog converts into revenue and the scale of its capital expenditures. This will validate whether AI hardware demand can smoothly extend beyond GPUs alone to midstream segments such as optical communications, advanced packaging, and semiconductor equipment. If results beat expectations, it could reignite bullish momentum across the AI supply chain.
– Investor Focus：
◦ Equity / Options Trading：
After recent corrections, leading AI stocks have seen some relief in selling pressure, but during earnings and revenue announcements, they remain exposed to the risk of 'high volatility amid elevated expectations.'
For investors who are bullish on AI’s medium- to long-term outlook but concerned about short-term volatility, a Covered Call strategy may be suitable—holding the underlying stock while simultaneously selling slightly out-of-the-money call options. This approach generates premium income and provides modest downside protection for the stock position.
◦ Low-Barrier Opportunities
- ETFs: If the capital requirement for individual AI tech stocks is too high for you,semiconductor index ETFs offer a low-cost alternative. With just a fraction of the capital needed for a single stock, you can gain instant diversified exposure to dozens of global semiconductor leaders like Taiwan Semiconductor, NVIDIA, and Broadcom. This not only reduces 'black swan' risk from any single stock but also offers high liquidity and tight bid-ask spreads.
Screening criteria: As of the Hong Kong market close on August 10, 2026, via Futubull app > Market > ETFs > U.S. > Thematic ETFs > Top 5 by Assets Under Management
Event 2: A Key Indicator for Hong Kong Stocks — $Tencent (TCEHY.US)$$TENCENT-R (80700.HK)$ Q2 Earnings Release to Guide the Direction of the Hang Seng Tech Index
As the undisputed heavyweight leader of the Hong Kong stock market, Tencent’s upcoming second-quarter earnings report will play a decisive role in shaping the direction of the entire Hang Seng Tech Index.
– Opportunity InsightsThe market will focus on the growth rates of Tencent’s gaming, online advertising, fintech, and cloud businesses. More importantly, investors will closely assess whether its AI investments—particularly in large-model development and computing infrastructure—are beginning to translate into tangible revenue and profit growth. Given that Hong Kong stocks did not experience a broad-based rally last week, Tencent’s earnings performance will serve as a crucial barometer for re-rating the tech sector and attracting foreign capital back into the market.
– Investor Focus：
For investors focused on the Hong Kong market, Tencent’s earnings carry significant directional implications. If results surpass expectations and demonstrate strong shareholder returns—such as sustained share buyback activity—it would provide solid support for the bottom of the Hang Seng Tech Index.
Additionally, within the Hong Kong innovative drug sector, investors may consider a 'separating the wheat from the chaff' strategy—prioritizing CXO companies and commercialization leaders with confirmed orders and realized profits, while avoiding small-cap names whose valuations rely purely on early-stage pipeline concepts. If bullish on Tencent, investors can trade the underlying stock directly or search for call option strategies on the stock’s detail page.
Maintain a Rational Investment Mindset and Practice Risk Control
At this critical juncture—marked by major macroeconomic data releases and earnings reports—investors should not only precisely identify opportunities but also strictly adhere to disciplined investment principles.
1. Manage Leverage and Mitigate Event RiskDuring earnings season and CPI release periods, daily market volatility often widens significantly. While options buyers benefit from limited downside and theoretically unlimited upside, option values are highly susceptible to time decay. Investors should avoid allocating an excessive portion of their capital to short-term, directional option purchases, as sideways market movement could cause the option value to expire worthless.
2. Leverage ETFs for long-term asset allocation: Investing is a marathon. If you don’t want to monitor the market daily or stress over short-term earnings fluctuations of individual stocks, it’s advisable to allocate the 'core' portion of your capital into low-cost, highly transparent global broad-market ETFs. Use a dollar-cost averaging (monthly contribution) approach to smooth out volatility over time and capture the long-term benefits of global economic growth.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
Comments
to post a comment
5
13