HK Stock Market Barometer | HK stocks edged lower in August! What to invest in this golden September
On Wednesday, August 12, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ will announce its 2026 interim results.As the tech stock with the highest weighting in the Hang Seng Index and Hong Kong’s long-standing ‘buyback king,’ Tencent’s earnings report has never been just about the company itself—market sentiment toward tech stocks often hinges on it:
If results beat expectations, the entire Hong Kong tech sector may rally; if they fall short, negative sentiment quickly spreads to other tech stocks. That’s why, whenever Tencent reports earnings, many investors feel both anxious and confused: with so much data, what should they actually focus on?
Using Tencent’s upcoming results as a case study, this article will walk you through, from scratch, how to properly analyze an earnings report.We’ll break it down into four steps: first, dissect the core business segments to understand where the money comes from; second, examine shareholder returns to see how the company treats its shareholders; third, compare results against market expectations to judge whether they’re ‘good’ or ‘bad’; and finally, learn how to fully leverage Futubull throughout every stage—before, during, and after earnings.

Core Business Segments: How to Break Down the Three Pillars?
The first step to understanding a company is always to 'break down its revenue'—where exactly is the money coming from?
Open Tencent’s page on Futubull, go to 'Company' → 'Financials,' and under 'Revenue Breakdown,' you can instantly switch between three dimensions—business segments, products, and regions—to view the revenue structure.
Taking full-year 2025 as an example: Value-added Services account for 49.12%, FinTech and Business Services for 30.52%, Marketing Services for 19.28%, and Others for 1.07%. Clearly understanding these segments is the first step to grasping Tencent’s business.Note that Tencent updates its revenue breakdown on a semi-annual basis, so we’ll get the latest segment data following the upcoming interim earnings release.

(1) Value-added Services (Gaming + Social Networks) — the 'Core Foundation'
This is Tencent’s largest revenue source, contributing nearly half of total income.At its heart is gaming:Domestic games (such as Honor of Kings, Peacekeeper Elite, Teamfight Tactics, and other evergreen titles) plus international games. Since 2025, Tencent has clearly articulated its 'evergreen games' strategy—not relying on hit-driven bets, but instead focusing on sustained operation and monetization of existing titles to steadily generate cash flow. Social networks include online music, live-streaming tips, mini-game platforms, and more—all of which are also 'cash cows.'
(2) Marketing Services (Advertising) — the 'Growth Engine'
Simply put, it’s about selling ads:Video Channels ads, Mini Program ads, WeChat Search ads, and e-commerce ads from WeChat Stores. This segment has seen the fastest growth over the past two years. The core driver is that AI-powered advertising has significantly improved advertisers’ conversion efficiency, naturally leading them to spend more. Additionally, there’s still room to expand available ad inventory on Video Channels. The market expects marketing services revenue in Q2 2026 to become the fastest-growing among the three major segments.
(3) FinTech and Business Services (Payments + Cloud + AI) — 'Highest in tech content and most closely watched'
Many people find this segment confusing, but it actually consists of two parts:First is FinTech, primarily comprising transaction fees from WeChat Pay, wealth management, and lending;Second is business services, centered on Tencent Cloud and AI.
What does Tencent Cloud do? In one sentence: it packages and sells 'infrastructure'—such as computing power, databases, and large models—to enterprises.
This can be viewed across three layers: the foundational IaaS (servers, storage, networking), the middle PaaS layer (databases, development platforms), and the top SaaS layer (applications for office work, meetings, etc.),Plus the hottest trend in recent years—MaaS ('Model-as-a-Service'), where enterprises directly call large model APIs and pay based on token consumption.Tencent Cloud has long been an industry leader in vertical segments like gaming cloud, audio-video cloud, and financial cloud. Over the past year, it has partnered with more than 11,000 collaborators, and its AI large model product revenue has grown over 50-fold in two years.
AI is precisely Tencent Cloud's 'second growth curve':In Q1 2026, Tencent Cloud's revenue grew by over 40% year-over-year, with cloud business gross margin rising above 35%, and AI-related high-margin services accounting for 25% to 30% of that segment.The underlying logic is simple: surging demand for AI inference computing power and tight supply of high-end GPUs have shifted the entire industry from 'price wars' to 'computing power price hikes,' fundamentally improving cloud providers' profitability.
On a product level, the market’s recent focus—on the 'model capability ecosystem'—falls squarely within this trajectory:HunYuan large model (Hy3, whose token usage volume has grown more than tenfold since its launch in April this year compared to the previous generation), TokenHub—an upgraded MaaS platform from Tencent Cloud that bills based on token consumption and is projected to exceed 50 trillion tokens consumed by 2027—WorkBuddy, a desktop AI-powered office assistant currently leading daily active users among domestic peers, and the WeChat Agent currently in gray-scale testing.In other words, to gauge how well Tencent is telling its AI story, keep a close eye on the 'FinTech and Business Services' segment.
However, a caveat is warranted: payment services are being affected by broader consumer spending trends—retail sales growth slowed to just +0.2% in April and -0.6% in May 2026, so the market expects overall FinTech and Business Services growth to decelerate to around +8%. This illustrates the value of 'analyzing segments separately': beyond total revenue, it becomes immediately clear which parts are accelerating and which are slowing down.
Shareholder Returns: Buybacks Are Tencent's 'Second Report Card'
For mature giants like Tencent, shareholder returns matter just as much as financial performance—and perhaps increasingly so.
Tencent's shareholder returns primarily rely on two strategies: dividends + share buybacks. In 2025, Tencent repurchased approximately 153 million shares at a total cost of about HK$80 billion, with all repurchased shares canceled (in 2024, the amount was even higher at HK$112 billion, making it the 'buyback king' of the Hong Kong stock market for multiple consecutive years). The buybacks continue into 2026: as of July 9, the company has already repurchased around 36.07 million shares year-to-date, maintaining a pace of roughly HK$500 million per day.
This leads to a common point of confusion for newcomers: why does Tencent sometimes suddenly 'pause' its buybacks? The answer isn’t that the company is short on cash—it’s due to HKEX rules.—Listed companies are prohibited from repurchasing shares during the one-month period prior to the release of their financial results. This 'buyback blackout period' aims to prevent insider trading and ensure market fairness.
Tencent paused its buybacks after repurchasing HK$5.01 billion on July 9 this year precisely because it is scheduled to announce earnings on August 12;By convention, buybacks resume immediately once the earnings are released.Therefore, a 'buyback pause' is actually transparent and not bad news—each resumption after a pause is the company reaffirming its confidence with real money.

How can you see all this clearly in the app? Open Tencent’s page on Futubull, go to 'Company' → 'Dividends,' where you’ll find a 'Buybacks' section listing every repurchase with date and amount clearly displayed (for example, the most recent repurchase before earnings was HK$5.01 billion on July 9).You can review this yourself: was the month when buybacks paused exactly the earnings blackout period?
Financial expectations: First, see what the market thinks
Whether earnings are good or bad shouldn’t be judged solely by absolute figures, but by how they compare to expectations. The market aggregates analysts’ forecasts into a 'consensus estimate.' If actual results exceed this, it’s a 'beat'; if they fall short, it’s a 'miss.' Stock price reactions reflect this 'expectation gap,' not the raw numbers themselves.There are countless examples in the market where companies reported doubled earnings yet saw their stock prices plunge because results fell short of expectations—fellow investors have likely felt this acutely recently.
What were market expectations for Tencent’s latest earnings?
According to pre-earnings analyst estimates from Futubull, revenue was projected at approximately RMB 202.458 billion (up 9.73% year-over-year), and earnings per share (EPS) were forecast at RMB 6.259 (up 4.38% year-over-year).Among 43 analysts, 79.07% issued 'Strong Buy' ratings and 20.93% gave 'Buy' ratings—essentially unanimous bullish sentiment.

The average target price is HK$679.81, with a high of HK$794.73 and a low of HK$510.00. With the current share price still below HK$500, there’s nearly 40% upside potential to reach the average target. Some institutions project Q2 2026 Non-IFRS net profit at around RMB 65.6 billion (up 4.0% year-over-year), with gross margin remaining around 57%, driven primarily by marketing services and gaming segments.
But beginners should remember: analyst expectations ≠ reality. Slowing revenue growth and significantly higher AI-related capital expenditures (with the market expecting AI investment to double again this year) could suppress profit growth and push up expense ratios—these are all underlying concerns.Expectations are just a reference point; what truly matters is the direction of the 'expectation gap' when actual results are released.
Where can you find visual charts? Right on Futubull: go to 'Company' → 'Financials'.There, you’ll find combined bar charts and year-over-year growth trend lines for the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement—making trends instantly visible. The 'Financial Forecasts' section consolidates analyst projections for revenue, net profit, EPS, and EBIT. These figures are updated immediately once earnings are released.

Futubull covers you before, during, and after earnings season!
Use your tools well, and you won’t get lost during earnings season.
Pre-earnings: From now until August 12, first review the consensus estimates—revenue/EPS forecasts, overall ratings, and target prices—all on one page—to build your own 'expectations' reference framework. Then use the 'Earnings Calendar' to mark earnings release dates and plan ahead. Finally, sign up for 'Earnings Live Streams,' which offer live coverage plus 'Earnings Flash Reports' that deliver professional insights immediately after results are released.
During Earnings: On the day of the release, follow along with the live earnings stream and pay close attention to management’s commentary on AI investment pacing, share repurchase plans, and outlooks for each business segment—these 'guidances' often matter more for stock price direction than the current quarter’s numbers. (If you can’t make it live, replays are available.)

After earnings announcement: Once actual figures are fully updated, immediately compare 'Actual vs. Consensus Estimates' to determine whether it’s a Beat or a Miss. Then check the 'Revenue Breakdown' to see which segments outperformed and which lagged. Finally, review the 'Repurchase' records to confirm whether buybacks have resumed as promised.
Lastly, here’s ageneral pre-earnings action guidefor beginner investors—just remember these three points:
Beforehand: Mark the date, don’t bet on earnings—add August 12 to your calendar. Earnings outcomes are highly uncertain; going all-in on a single position is the riskiest move. Reduce positions beforehand and decide what to do afterward.
Post-earnings: First assess the earnings surprise, then listen to management guidance—Immediately compare 'actual vs. consensus estimates.' Management's outlook on AI investments and share buybacks often matters more than a single quarter’s profit in shaping the medium-term direction.
Mindset: Let the dust settle—Sharp post-earnings moves (up or down) are common. Don’t rush to chase gains or cut losses—wait for sentiment to stabilize before making a call.
Tencent’s latest earnings report serves as the perfect 'teaching material' for investors: break down revenue to understand core operations, read share buybacks as a signal of shareholder returns, calculate the earnings surprise against expectations, and use tools to walk through the entire process. Remember this: earnings reflect the past—it’s the earnings surprise and forward guidance that shape the future. Master this framework, and you’ll never get lost analyzing any company’s results again~
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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