Urgent!!! Market divergence intensifies, highlighting structural opportunities! Hong Kong stocks may see major moves today!

Must-read before the market opens | Hong Kong market outlook for August 10: Divergence intensifies, highlighting structural opportunities

I. Data recap from last Friday (August 7)

Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,668 points, down 385.54 points or 1.49%; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 4,858 points, down 2.28%; total turnover on the Main Board reached HK$255.2 billion. The Hang Seng Index breached its 250-day bull-bear demarcation line (25,729 points).

Southbound funds: Net outflow of HK$1.461 billion, as mainland investors opted to take profits on rallies, exacerbating downward pressure on the index.

US stocks (August 8): All three major indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 setting another record high close. The Dow rose 0.28% to 54,036.93; the S&P 500 gained 0.62% to 7,757.64; the Nasdaq climbed 1.3% to 26,690.62. For the week, the Dow gained 2.96%, the S&P 500 rose 3.58%, and the Nasdaq surged 5.19%.

A-shares (August 7): The Shanghai Composite closed at 3,940.04 points, up 1.02%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,311.01 points, up 1.42%.

Commodities: COMEX gold futures rose 2.37% to USD 4,401.3 per ounce, gaining over 7% for the week; WTI crude oil futures settled 1.15% higher, though down nearly 8% for the week.

II. Weekend overseas developments (August 9)

US stocks (August 9): All three major indices pulled back. The Dow fell 0.85% to 53,885.10; the S&P 500 dropped 0.18% to 7,709.96; the Nasdaq declined 0.06% to 26,348.35. Memory chip stocks opened lower but rebounded intraday, though most still ended sharply lower—Western Digital plunged over 13%, SanDisk fell nearly 7%, and SK Hynix dropped close to 5%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.27%.

Policy front: Trump signed an executive order imposing minimum import prices and additional tariffs on imported polysilicon and its derivative products. The Cybersecurity Review Office has launched a cybersecurity review on Palo Alto Networks' products sold in China. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly announced new measures to deepen market cooperation between the two regions, covering seven areas including expedited ETF registration and expansion of RMB-denominated futures.

Geopolitical situation: Trump stated that no agreement has yet been reached on the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. currently participating in negotiations; Iran plans to ban passage by the U.S. and hostile countries. U.S.-Iran talks have yielded no results, and the timing for reopening the strait remains unclear.

Fund flows: Southbound capital recorded a net purchase of HK$9.965 billion this week. Foreign capital continued net inflows, while southbound funds rotated from dividend-paying sectors into internet leaders and the semiconductor supply chain. MINIMAX-W topped southbound purchases with a net inflow of HK$4.922 billion, followed by Alibaba-W at HK$2.682 billion.

III. Sector Outlook

Semiconductors/Chips: GigaDevice surged over 21%, Montage Technology rose more than 19%, and SMIC, Hua Hong Hongli, among others, followed higher. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s ban on copper-cobalt concentrate exports further heightened focus on the supply chain. However, U.S. memory chip stocks continued to slump (Western Digital down over 13%, SanDisk nearly 7% lower), indicating persistent external sentiment headwinds and ongoing sector divergence.

Gold/Nonferrous Metals: COMEX gold surpassed USD 4,400 per ounce, rising over 7% for the week. A weaker U.S. dollar supported precious metal prices, sustaining the bullish case for gold equities. However, significant short-term gains have increased the risk of chasing highs.

Insurance: News about taxation on offshore insurance policies continues to circulate—reports indicate tax authorities have begun levying a 20% individual income tax on returns from offshore policies. AIA declined 5.92% last week. Avoid near-term exposure and await policy clarity.

AI/Large Models: MINIMAX-W surged 41.54% this week as its H3 model was officially open-sourced. Domestic large models have entered a new phase emphasizing both inference efficiency and open-source ecosystem development. DeepSeek plans to raise API service pricing across the board soon, reflecting sustained sector momentum.

Oil/Energy: U.S.-Iran talks ended without agreement, and the timeline for reopening the Strait remains uncertain. Oil prices fell nearly 8% this week; maintain a wait-and-see stance in the short term.

IV. Trading Recommendations

The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,530 points last Friday, while the Hang Seng Index ADRs settled at 25,831.08 points, up 163.05 points or 0.64% from the Hong Kong close. However, U.S. equities pulled back over the weekend, leading to cautious sentiment at today's open. Near-term support stands at 25,300 points, with resistance at 25,800 points.

Specific strategies:

1. Consider semiconductor stocks on dips, as the domestic substitution thesis strengthens, but watch for spillover pressure from sharp declines in U.S. memory stocks;

2. Gold and base metals remain attractive on a medium-term view, but short-term upside chasing carries significant risk—wait for pullbacks;

3. Avoid insurance stocks in the near term due to lingering uncertainty around tax policy;

4. AI and large language models merit attention, as southbound capital continues to increase positions and sector sentiment remains strong;

5. Stay on the sidelines in oil, given recurring geopolitical tensions;

6. Maintain portfolio exposure at 40–50%, and monitor whether the Hang Seng Index can hold above 25,500 points.

@Apple_official @特斯拉 @腾讯公司 @英伟达NVIDIA

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