Daily Options Income Strategy | SMCI to Report Earnings After Market Close on August 11—Gross Margin Guidance Doubled! Is the Company Approaching a Profitability Inflection Point?
1. Market Sentiment Indicator
On the previous trading day, the U.S. semiconductor sector showed clear internal divergence, with market sentiment entering a state of high alert ahead of the upcoming earnings season, $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ The high volatility characteristic provides option sellers with a rare premium collection window.
II. Watchlist Highlights
SMCI: Set to report earnings after market close on August 11, with gross margin guidance doubling
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ It closed down 3.10% yesterday (August 6) at $29.38, with a volume ratio of only 0.696, indicating cautious investor participation. The current share price remains nearly halved compared to its early June peak.
From a technical perspective, SMCI is currently exhibiting a classic surge-and-pullback pattern.The stock surged 10.65% in a single day on August 4 to $31.69, but then declined over the next two trading days, nearly erasing all gains from August 4.
The market is currently positioning and adjusting holdings around expectations for the upcoming Q4 earnings report (August 11).The key current market expectation gap stems from the fundamental contradiction revealed in SMCI’s fiscal Q3 2026 earnings: EPS reached $0.72, surging 323.53% year-over-year and far exceeding the market consensus of $0.5157; however, revenue came in at $10.243 billion, below the expected $12.454 billion—a shortfall of approximately 17.8%.
This 'soaring profits yet revenue shortfall' combination reflects SMCI’s rapidly improving profitability driven by economies of scale, though its revenue growth has failed to fully match the market’s optimistic expectations for AI computing demand.
After market close on July 21, Super Micro Computer updated its Q4 guidance for the period ended June 30, 2026, expecting Q4 revenue to be near the lower end of its $11–12.5 billion guidance range,but the GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins—which have drawn the most market attention—were significantly raised from 8.2%–8.4% to 15%–17%,compared to an actual Q3 gross margin of only approximately 10%. Management explicitly stated that this improvement is primarily driven by 'a favorable customer mix and product portfolio,' indicating the company is shifting from low-margin rack integration services toward higher-value AI system solutions. According to Benzinga’s analysis,the gross margin improvement signifies enhanced pricing power and a more sustainable profit pool.
The company also disclosed that new orders during Q4 totaled over $60 billion, which are expected to be delivered over the coming quarters. However, the fact that Q4 revenue guidance is near the low end of the range suggests that structural optimization may temporarily take precedence over volume growth.
Potential downside factors for the stock price:In June, the company raised $7 billion through equity and equity-linked financing transactions, and the share issuance has sparked concerns about shareholder dilution. Additionally, the medium- to long-term moving averages remain in a downtrend, indicating still weak technical conditions in the medium term.
3. Options Premium Collection Strategy
$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ Current implied volatility (IV) stands at 101%, at the 89th percentile historically, meaning option premiums are relatively rich.
1. Cash Secured Put
Sell 1 contract of $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$260904 22P, Estimated margin requirement (for reference only): $2,200
Opportunity Rationale:
For investors who do not yet hold SMCI shares but wish to establish positions on dips, SMCI remains at the core of the AI server segment, with AI infrastructure demand providing long-term support. However, chasing the stock higher ahead of the Q4 earnings release (August 11) carries significant risk. If the stock price remains range-bound or rebounds, option premium income can be collected. Should the stock pull back to this level after earnings, acquiring shares at a $22 cost would represent a deeply discounted entry opportunity.
2. Covered Call
Opportunity Rationale:
For investors already holding shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI), directly selling the stock may cause them to miss out on potential upside from a Q4 earnings beat. In this case, selling out-of-the-money calls allows them to collect substantial option premiums in a high implied volatility (IV) environment, effectively lowering their cost basis. If the stock price remains range-bound or dips slightly after earnings, the premium income can partially offset any drawdown; if the stock surges above $41 due to better-than-expected earnings and the call is exercised, it effectively locks in a阶段性 profit-taking outcome.
IV. Risk Management Advisory
Although seller strategies have a high win rate, investors must still implement proper risk management:
– Position management is everything.: The biggest risk for option sellers lies in black swan events. It is recommended that margin allocated to any single underlying should not exceed 20% of total capital. Never sell options beyond your capacity to absorb losses just for the sake of collecting higher premiums.
– Covered Call and Timely Rolling: When a covered call becomes deeply in-the-money (i.e., the stock price far exceeds the strike price), if you remain bullish on the underlying stock, you should decisively 'roll' the position—buy to close the current option and simultaneously sell a longer-dated call with a higher strike price—to avoid having your shares called away at an unattractive price.
– Cash-secured put options: Beware of 'left-tail risk': For cash-secured puts, if the stock price crashes due to fundamental deterioration (rather than a normal pullback), don’t hold on stubbornly. In such cases, exit with a stop-loss or roll the position down to buy time while waiting for volatility to normalize.
Make good use of the Options Seller Hub to understand income strategies for selling options and earnOption premiums！
Options Risk Disclosure
An option is a contract that gives the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date. Option prices are influenced by multiple factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of future volatility over the life of the option and is derived by back-solving from the Black-Scholes option pricing model. It is commonly viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate higher volatility, they may be willing to pay more for options to hedge their risk, leading to higher implied volatility. Traders and investors use implied volatility to assess the attractiveness of option prices, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.
Disclaimer
This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, advice, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, there is no guarantee they will prevent losses. Market conditions may render such orders unexecutable. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet the required margin within the specified timeframe, your open positions may be liquidated. Nevertheless, you remain fully responsible for any resulting deficit in your account. Therefore, prior to trading options, you should thoroughly study and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading aligns with your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should become familiar with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully read 'Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options' before engaging in any options trading strategy.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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