Daily Options Outlook | SanDisk earnings after the bell loom, with options markets pricing in ±15% volatility; SpaceX and AMD beat earnings expectations but dropped sharply post-earnings

Today's Options Opportunity Outlook

On the macro front,$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$Down 0.12% in pre-market,$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$Up 0.26% in pre-market, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit a new all-time high alongside the S&P 500 index. Falling oil prices—driven by Middle East peace talks—lowered inflation expectations, while strong earnings from tech names like Palantir boosted AI investment sentiment. A broad tech sector rebound fueled a fourth consecutive day of gains for U.S. equities. Options market data showed SPY’s put/call volume ratio dropped to 0.72 on the previous trading day, with implied volatility (IV) at 16.22%.

ADP employment data will be released at 8:15 a.m. ET, final services PMI at 9:45 a.m., and ISM Services Index at 10:00 a.m.; market consensus expects ISM to rise from 54.0 to 54.5. If these indicators remain stronger than expected, rate expectations could again weigh on high-valuation tech stocks. Thus, after today’s open, investors should brace for a second wave of volatility driven by macroeconomic data releases.

At the individual stock level, $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ Shares fell 11% in pre-market trading. The company’s first earnings report since going public showed quarterly revenue surged 92% year-over-year to approximately $7.8 billion, with significantly narrowed losses, but capital expenditures for the quarter reached $18.4 billion—higher than expected for AI infrastructure investments. With the post-earnings lock-up expiration window approaching, investor focus quickly shifted to cash burn and potential share supply overhang.

$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ The stock price fell 8.7% in pre-market trading to around $473. AMD reported second-quarter revenue growth of 50% year-over-year, reaching $11.54 billion, with data center revenue surging 107% year-over-year to $6.72 billion. The company provided third-quarter revenue guidance of approximately $13 billion, exceeding market expectations of $12.52 billion.

The stock price remains significantly lower, partly because its year-to-date gain of over 140% had raised the bar for earnings expectations, which still fell short of some aggressive investors’ hopes. Additionally, SpaceX’s shift to NVIDIA AI chips has prompted the market to reassess AMD’s competitive position in high-end AI clusters.

$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ The company will release its annual and fourth-quarter results after the market close today, with the earnings call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET. The options market is currently pricing in an expected move of nearly 15%, making it one of the highest volatility events among large-cap stocks today.

The market will closely watch NAND pricing, data center and enterprise storage demand, supply tightness, and next fiscal year’s margin guidance. SanDisk has seen substantial gains year-to-date but has pulled back significantly from its June highs. Today’s results could determine whether the recent sector-wide correction reflects a cooling of expectations or a fundamental inflection point. Implied volatility is already expensive, with the options market pricing in a ±14.91% move on earnings day. A long straddle would only be profitable if the actual stock move exceeds this implied range; when holding a directional view, using call or put spreads offers relatively lower risk than single-leg options.

Yesterday’s Options Market Recap

Index Options

On August 4 (ET), U.S. equity index options saw elevated volume, with 8.78 million contracts traded. The put/call volume ratio declined to 0.78.

For the upcoming expiration date,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Options volume distribution shows the following characteristics: peak put volume at the 7,700 strike and peak call volume at the 7,800 strike.

Single-Stock Options

$Palantir (PLTR.US)$The stock rose 29.45%, with 2.0189 million options contracts traded, and the put/call volume ratio dropped to 0.48. Palantir reported 'exceptional' second-quarter results, with revenue up 93% year-over-year to $1.9 billion, driving a 29% surge in its share price.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$The stock declined 2.32%, with 991,300 options contracts traded, and the put/call volume ratio rose to 0.51. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy successfully explained the company’s AI spending strategy to Wall Street, while New Jersey filed an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon over control of delivery contractors.

Options Volume Rankings

Among the top 10 stocks by options volume,$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$It recorded the highest put/call volume ratio at 0.88. SpaceX released its first earnings report since its IPO, reporting second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, but investor concerns over $18.4 billion in capital expenditures caused the stock to drop more than 8% in after-hours trading.

The highest put/call open interest ratio is$Micron Technology (MU.US)$, reaching 1.18. Micron Technology’s DRAM market share rose to 25%, closing in on SK Hynix, while also facing competitive pressure from China’s rapidly growing CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies).

Implied Volatility Leaderboard (underlying market cap > $1 billion and options volume > 100,000)

$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$Implied volatility peaked at 141.58%, down 0.80% from the previous trading day. Piper Sandler initiated coverage of NEBIUS with a Neutral rating and a price target of $224.

$SK hynix (SKHY.US)$Implied volatility increased the most, reaching 122.90%, up 2.53% from the previous trading day. SK Hynix received Buy ratings from multiple Wall Street investment banks, with the highest price target at $260.

Risk Warning

An option is a contract that grants the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date. Option prices are influenced by multiple factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility.

Implied volatility reflects the market’s expectation of future price fluctuations over a given period. It is derived by reverse-engineering the Black-Scholes option pricing model and is generally viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate greater volatility, they may be willing to pay higher premiums for options to hedge risk, resulting in higher implied volatility.

Traders and investors use implied volatility to assess the attractiveness of option prices, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer
This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, advice, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, you may not be able to avoid losses. Market conditions may prevent the execution of such orders. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet such margin requirements within the stipulated time, your open positions may be liquidated. You remain fully liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Therefore, you should thoroughly research and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully read"Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options"。

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