港股窩輪Jenny

wrote a column ·

US equity-linked warrants: PLTR surges, chip stocks diverge—it's no longer about 'which stock is strongest,' but rather 'which warrant terms still offer trading value'

Among US equities today, Palantir was undoubtedly the standout—but true trading value lies not just in one surging stock.

Based on charts and product terms, they can currently be grouped into three categories:

1. PLTR$Palantir (PLTR.US)$Gap-up breakout on earnings, but the call warrant's strike price is already very aggressive

2. NVIDIA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$and AMD $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Both are AI chips, but their technological positioning and product strategies are entirely different

3. Tesla$Tesla (TSLA.US)$and Amazon $Amazon (AMZN.US)$One is still in a weak rebound, while the other has broken out and needs to consolidate its gains

PLTR: surged nearly 30% in a day, showing the strongest momentum, but higher leverage isn't always better for call warrants

PLTR surged 29.45% post-earnings, closing at $162.66 with volume of approximately 175 million shares—more than four times its average daily volume. The stock has reclaimed multiple key moving averages, and its RSI rose to 72.8, technically shifting from a rebound to a gap-up breakout, though it has now entered overbought territory in the short term.

This kind of price action most easily leads to two common mistakes:

– Seeing a sharp rise in the stock price, buying deep out-of-the-money call warrants to chase the next leg up;

– Feeling the stock has risen too much, immediately buying put warrants to bet against the trend.

The current Palantir (PLTR) call warrants have a strike price of approximately $200. Based on the underlying stock price of $144.08 shown in the product table, they are about 38.8% out-of-the-money. They expire in October 2026, with an effective leverage of around 8x, a delta of only about 14.5%, and an implied volatility close to 66%.

The biggest issue with these terms isn't that the stock 'definitely won’t rise,' but rather that the market has already priced in significant volatility through the high implied volatility.

The stock price would need to rise from $144 to nearly $200 before the intrinsic value improves noticeably. Until then, the warrant’s price heavily depends on:

– The underlying stock continuing to surge sharply;

– High implied volatility remaining elevated;

– Sufficient remaining time value to provide support.

After earnings announcements, a common risk is that the underlying stock consolidates at high levels while implied volatility declines. In such cases, even if PLTR doesn’t drop significantly, the out-of-the-money call warrants may come under pressure due to the dual erosion of volatility and time value.

Relatively speaking, PLTR put warrants with a strike price around $140 are slightly out-of-the-money, expiring at the end of December, featuring an effective leverage of approximately 2.6x, a delta of about 37%, and an implied volatility of roughly 66%.

The terms of these put warrants are relatively close to the underlying stock, but the issue lies in direction: the share price has just broken out upward on massive volume, and taking a bearish stance immediately now exposes one to the risk of further short squeeze in this strong momentum stock.

A more reasonable trading approach would be:

– Bulls should avoid chasing maximum leverage right after a single-day sharp rally; instead, they should wait to see if the stock holds support near the top of the breakout gap or around $150;

– Call warrant positions would only become viable if the stock establishes support between $150 and $155;

– Bears should at least wait for the price to retrace back into the gap zone or break below near-term support before considering put warrants;

– Simply buying puts due to an overbought RSI may not be sufficient to counter strong earnings-driven momentum.

PLTR still offers trading opportunities, but the primary risk has shifted from 'unclear direction' to 'overpriced warrant terms.'

NVIDIA: exhibiting a healthier price trend; call warrants are actually easier to manage than chasing PLTR

NVIDIA closed at $211.94, up 2.56%, and rose further in after-hours trading to around $216.50. The stock trades above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, with an RSI of approximately 56.9—not yet in extreme overbought territory. Technically, it is rebounding from support near $190 and currently testing resistance in the $215–$220 range in the near term.

Compared to PLTR, NVIDIA’s current technical setup is more suitable for warrant deployment:

– Uptrend intact;

– No single-day extreme gaps observed;

– RSI remains in neutral-to-strong territory;

– Support and invalidation levels are easier to define.

The current call warrants have a strike price of approximately $275, about 32.2% above the underlying stock’s reference price of $208.05, expire at the end of December, and feature an effective leverage of around 6.8x, a delta of approximately 22.8%, and an implied volatility of about 46%.

These warrants are still out-of-the-money but in better shape than PLTR call warrants:

– Smaller degree of being out-of-the-money;

– Longer time to expiration;

– Lower implied volatility compared to PLTR.

– Higher delta offers better participation when the underlying stock rises.

However, the $275 strike price is still not suitable for capturing modest gains of just a dollar or two. If NVIDIA consolidates only within the $205–$220 range, time decay will gradually erode value.

These products are better suited for scenarios where the stock price decisively breaks above $220 and moves toward the $230–$236 resistance zone. For short-term rebounds of just a few percentage points, at-the-money or slightly out-of-the-money call warrants would be more appropriate—though currently available products may not offer sufficient choices.

For put warrants, the strike price is around $168 (approximately 19% out-of-the-money), with an effective leverage of about 4.8x, delta of roughly 19%, and implied volatility of approximately 52%.

The main drawback of this put series is clear: the strike price is far from the current stock price, and sensitivity will only improve meaningfully if the stock drops significantly below $190. It’s unlikely to effectively capture minor pullbacks near $215.

Therefore, the conclusion on NVIDIA products is:

– Bullish positions are currently better supported than bearish ones;

– $220 is the key level determining whether call warrants shift from 'rebound trades' to 'breakout trades';

– Only if the price falls below approximately $195–$200 should the bullish outlook be reassessed;

– Out-of-the-money puts are only suitable for betting on deep corrections, not for capturing ordinary pullbacks.

AMD: plummeted sharply after-hours following earnings; the biggest enemy for call warrants is declining volatility

AMD closed at $518.58 during regular trading, up 7%, but fell to around $472.94 in after-hours trading following its earnings release—a decline of nearly 9%. The daily chart shows the stock previously found support near $450, with clear resistance between approximately $550 and $585. The RSI is around 52, not in overbought territory, but the post-earnings gap down has suddenly weakened the short-term structure.

Existing AMD call warrants have a strike price of about $700. With the underlying stock trading around $497.56, they are roughly 40.7% out-of-the-money, expiring in late December, with an effective leverage of approximately 3.8x, a delta of about 35%, and an implied volatility close to 80%.

On the surface, a delta of 35% isn’t particularly low; however, an implied volatility nearing 80% indicates that the product’s price already embeds extremely high expected volatility.

Following the earnings announcement and the subsequent after-hours drop in the underlying stock, the call warrants may face the following headwinds at market open the next day:

1. Decline in the underlying stock price;

2. A drop in implied volatility after the earnings event concludes;

3. The $700 strike price remains very far out-of-the-money.

This is a classic case of 'adverse moves in both direction and volatility.'

Even if investors believe AMD will benefit in the long run from AI data center growth, it doesn't necessarily mean they should immediately buy these deeply out-of-the-money call warrants with high implied volatility. A more reasonable approach is to monitor:

– Whether the stock price can hold above $450–$470;

– Whether the post-earnings gap closes quickly;

– Whether warrant prices become reasonable again after implied volatility subsides.

AMD still has potential for a rebound, butthe warrant terms require any rebound to be both rapid and substantial.This is a different matter from simply being bullish on the company’s long-term prospects.

Tesla: The stock remains below all major moving averages; put warrants are more aligned with current market realities than extremely deep out-of-the-money calls.

Tesla closed at $327.35, up 1.64%, yet still trading below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages by approximately 7.9%, 15.4%, and 20.3%, respectively. The RSI stands at around 39, indicating a rebound from oversold territory, though the medium-term downtrend has not yet reversed.

On the chart, $300–$310 represents near-term support; to the upside, the stock must first reclaim the $340–$350 zone before challenging higher moving average levels.

There are currently Tesla call warrants with a strike price of around $490, approximately 51% higher than the reference price of $324.37, expiring in early October, offering an effective leverage of about 9.7x, but with a delta of only around 6.9% and an implied volatility of roughly 62%.

Although these products are inexpensive and offer attractive leverage figures, their delta is below 7%, meaning their actual response may be quite limited even if the underlying stock experiences a modest rebound.

For these call warrants to truly perform well, Tesla needs not just a rebound—but a sharp upward move within a very short timeframe. This is a low-probability, high-reward strategy and should not be entered into merely because the underlying stock has declined significantly.

There are two groups of Tesla put warrants worth noting:

These two put warrant groups have strike prices close to the current share price and deltas significantly higher than those of the call warrants. If Tesla breaks below $310–$300, these products would react more directly.

However, the stock’s RSI is already at a relatively low level, so chasing puts also carries the risk of a technical rebound. A more ideal approach would be:

– Wait for the stock price to rally to $340–$350 and encounter resistance before considering bearish positions;

– Or wait for confirmation of a breakdown below $300 before following the downward move;

– Currently, directly chasing puts near $327 offers lower reward-to-risk potential compared to waiting for either resistance confirmation or a clear breakdown.

Amazon: A pullback after a breakout does not necessarily signal the end of the trend, but deep-in-the-money calls may not be the most efficient choice.

Amazon closed at $277.42, down 2.32% on the day, yet still trading above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages by approximately 12%, 12%, and 18%, respectively; the RSI stands at around 67, indicating continued strength, though profit-taking emerged after the stock approached its recent high near $287.

Technically, the first short-term support level is around $270, with the next key support zone between $255 and $260; resistance lies initially at $287, and only a breakout above this level would confirm further upside potential.

The existing Amazon call warrants have a strike price of approximately $245, with the underlying stock trading around $279.70—placing them about 12.4% in-the-money, expiring in September, offering an effective leverage of roughly 5.8x, a delta of approximately 83%, and an implied volatility of about 43%.

The advantages of this call warrant are clear:

– Already in-the-money;

– High delta;

– Direct participation in upward moves of the underlying stock;

– Less reliant on significant increases in implied volatility.

However, the drawback is its relatively near expiration—only a little over a month remains. If Amazon trades sideways between $270 and $285, time decay will continue to erode its value daily.

Therefore, it is better suited not for medium-term holding, but rather for capturing:

– $270 provides support for a rebound;

– or a short-term continuation after breaking above $287.

The put warrant has a strike price around $180, approximately 35.6% out-of-the-money, with a delta of only about 5%. Despite its leverage of roughly 6.8x, it remains a deeply out-of-the-money product. Unless Amazon experiences a very sharp and deep pullback, the product’s sensitivity will remain limited.

Therefore, Amazon’s current warrant selection clearly favors calls, but entry level is more important than direction. Chasing above $280 versus waiting near the $270 support level entails vastly different risk profiles.

Comparison of terms across five stocks

In one sentence:The most tradable warrant right now may not be the one with the highest single-day gain, but rather the product whose technical positioning, strike price, delta, implied volatility, and expiry date align well together.

Warrants carry leverage, and their prices are also affected by time decay and implied volatility; being right on direction does not guarantee the chosen warrant terms are optimal.

58K Views