Daily Options Outlook | Palantir earnings after market close; options market pricing in ±11% volatility. Alibaba rises pre-market following the launch of Qwen 3.8-Max.

Today's Options Opportunity Outlook

On the macro front,$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$Up 0.65% pre-market,$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$Up 0.5% pre-market. Divergent tech giant earnings are driving selective market positioning: Microsoft, Google, and Amazon show strong AI business performance, while Apple and Meta face pressure. The U.S. and Japan jointly intervened in currency markets for the first time in 15 years to stabilize financial conditions, supporting a 0.65% rise in the QQQ index. Options data shows QQQ’s put/call volume ratio declined to 1.08 on the previous trading day, with implied volatility (IV) at 25.35%.

On the individual stock front,$Palantir (PLTR.US)$Up 2.23% pre-market. Palantir will release its Q2 earnings after the U.S. market close on August 3. Options data shows the stock’s put/call volume ratio has risen to 0.52, with implied volatility at 70.09%. PLTR has fallen roughly 30% year-to-date, partially relieving valuation pressure, but market expectations have shifted from 'revenue growth' to 'accelerating growth.' Consensus estimates project revenue of approximately $1.81 billion (up ~81% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.34–$0.35. Ultimately, the stock’s direction hinges on the growth rate of U.S. commercial business and full-year guidance. The market expects U.S. commercial revenue to grow by approximately 134%; if growth falls short of this high bar—even if overall results beat expectations—the stock may struggle to sustain gains. Current options pricing implies a ±10.96% post-earnings move.

$Alibaba (BABA.US)$ Up approximately 4.2% pre-market, with Alibaba’s Hong Kong-listed shares一度 rising about 7%. The immediate catalyst is the launch of the Qwen 3.8-Max model, which Alibaba says improves reasoning, coding, agent capabilities, and multimodal performance while reducing inference costs. Market focus isn’t on short-term revenue from a single model launch, but whether lower inference costs can boost developer adoption—thereby driving Alibaba Cloud revenue growth and supporting a re-rating of its AI business.

Given the significant pre-market gap up, tonight’s key observation will be whether the stock holds above the pre-market gap after the open. If volume expands and pullbacks find solid support, bullish spreads could help reduce the cost of chasing the rally. However, if the price quickly drops below the main pre-market trading range shortly after the open, it suggests traders still view the move as sentiment-driven, significantly increasing the risk of a near-term gap fill.

Yesterday’s Options Market Recap

Index Options

On July 31 Eastern Time, trading volume in the U.S. equity index options market declined, with a total of 6.61 million contracts traded. The put/call volume ratio rose to 1.01.

For the upcoming expiration date,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Options volume distribution exhibited the following characteristics: put options volume peaked at the 7,500 strike, while call options volume peaked at the 7,570 strike.

Single-Stock Options

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Amazon rose 15.32%, with 2.6385 million options contracts traded, and the put/call volume ratio dropped to 0.44. Amazon reported 37% year-over-year growth in AWS revenue for Q2, with annualized AI-related revenue reaching $25 billion. Several investment banks raised their price target to $365.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$Apple fell 7.35%, with 2.8442 million options contracts traded, and the put/call volume ratio declined to 0.67. Apple’s Q4 revenue guidance came in below expectations. UBS maintained a neutral rating but lowered its price target to $296.

Options Volume Rankings

Among the top 10 stocks by options volume,$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Micron Technology had the highest put/call volume ratio at 0.89. Micron’s share price dropped 1.5% following news that China’s Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) plans to build a second memory chip fabrication facility.

The highest put/call open interest ratio is$Micron Technology (MU.US)$, reaching 1.23.

Implied Volatility Leaderboard (underlying market cap > $1 billion and options volume > 100,000)

$Fermi (FRMI.US)$Implied volatility was the highest, reaching 144.51%, down 9.43% from the previous trading day. Mizuho maintained a Buy rating on Fermi but lowered its price target from $27 to $11.

$SK hynix (SKHY.US)$Implied volatility increased the most, reaching 120.50%, down 0.29% from the previous trading day. SK Hynix shares fell 8.7% amid a sharp decline in Korea’s KOSPI index, driven by AI valuation concerns and forced liquidations from leveraged positions.

Risk Warning

An option is a contract that grants the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date. Option prices are influenced by multiple factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility.

Implied volatility reflects the market’s expectation of future price fluctuations over a given period. It is derived by reverse-engineering the Black-Scholes option pricing model and is generally viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate greater volatility, they may be willing to pay higher premiums for options to hedge risk, resulting in higher implied volatility.

Traders and investors use implied volatility to assess the attractiveness of option prices, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer
This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, advice, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, you may not be able to avoid losses. Market conditions may prevent the execution of such orders. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet such margin requirements within the stipulated time, your open positions may be liquidated. You remain fully liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Therefore, you should thoroughly research and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully read"Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options"。

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