What's Hot in US Stocks | Entering 'Data Week'! How to Handle the Onslaught of Reports?

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$100 Options Opportunity Pool | Hedge ahead of NFP? SpaceX’s first earnings report! How to position 'smarter'

Hello, fellow investors! Welcome to this week’s BaiDao Options Opportunity Pool! Each week, we focus on clear market themes and highlight low-barrier options opportunities worth watching. We don’t chase tales of 1,000x returns in a day—instead, we focus on: what’s the logic, is it worth your attention, and where lies the risk?

This Week’s Market Focus

This week, market attention is being pulled along two main threads:Friday’s macro NFP dataas well asand company-specific $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$first earnings report since listing。

The U.S. will release its July non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, August 7—the most closely watched macro data point in the near term.Notably, the current market consensus does not expect a rate cut; instead, the Fed may hold rates steady for longer—or even consider hiking again—in response to disruptions from U.S.-Iran tensions.

If the jobs data comes in significantly stronger than expected, it could reinforce this outlook and weigh on the broader market; only if the data shows clear weakness might the market reprice in the possibility of a rate cut. This scenario—high uncertainty ahead of the release, with direction clarity only emerging afterward—is precisely where options shine: using limited capital (the premium) to express a directional view, whether bullish or bearish.

On the other hand, SpaceX (SPCX) will release itsfirst earnings report since going publicafter market close on August 4, followed byLock-up Expiry Waveon August 6. With these two events overlapping, volatility has already been priced in by the market, and implied volatility (IV) is currently elevated—meaning options are 'expensive,' but also suggesting IV could drop sharply after the earnings release (a phenomenon known as 'IV crush,' where option prices deflate as uncertainty dissipates).

We need to give fellow investors a heads-up here: getting excited and rushing in right after seeing an earnings report is often the most common mistake made by options beginners.We’ll explain in detail in the SPCX section why now (Monday) may not be an ideal time to establish a position.

These two main themes—one suitsPlan aheadconservative strategies,Patiently wait for the right opportunitywhile the other requires aggressive tactics. Let’s break them down one by one.

Target #1: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$

Friday’s nonfarm payroll data is the week’s top macro event, and SPY—the ETF tracking the S&P 500—is the most direct instrument for expressing views on overall market direction. Ahead of the nonfarm payroll release, markets often remain cautious; this uncertainty itself pushes up implied volatility on options, creating 'room to play' for both calls and puts.

It is worth noting thatSPY and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$other major indices all offer zero days-to-expiration (0DTE) options, providing extremely high flexibility.If you prefer to focus on the tech sector, consider QQQ—it tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, whose components are primarily tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla, and it is more sensitive to interest rate expectations than SPY.

In this article, we’ll use SPY as our primary example; the trading logic for QQQ is similar, so fellow investors can choose based on their own judgment.

(The design images shown on screen are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or guarantees; market conditions change rapidly, and the displayed option prices do not reflect real-time data. Options shown are filtered around the $1 strike price.)

Bullish rationale:

Employment data could be 'neither good nor bad': If nonfarm payroll data shows a moderate slowdown without collapsing, the market may interpret this as 'the economy remains resilient but not overheating,' alleviating concerns about rate hikes and potentially driving SPY higher.

Earnings season has exceeded expectations: Tech giants have generally delivered better-than-expected earnings this reporting season, supporting the broader market with solid fundamentals. If macro data doesn’t drag performance down, SPY still has room to rise.

Capital may position early: Some capital may front-run ahead of the data release, betting on a post-announcement rally—this expectation gap itself can drive short-term price action.

Bearish Thesis:

Stronger-than-expected data have reinforced expectations of interest-rate hikes.If nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, the market may worry that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September, which would be a direct negative for the stock market.

Capital spending by tech giants is raising concerns.: Although earnings in this quarter's reporting season exceeded expectations, the capital expenditures of tech giants have risen to such a level that free cash flow is under significant pressure. Last week, four of the "Big Seven" U.S. stocks released their results, with two posting sharp gains ($Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 、 $Amazon (AMZN.US)$) Two stocks plummeted ($Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 、 $Apple (AAPL.US)$), market skepticism about AI investments has yet to subside entirely, and if macroeconomic data turn bearish, it could trigger profit-taking.

Risk-aversion demand is rising.Before the release of non-farm payrolls, markets typically lean toward reducing positions and adopting a wait-and-see approach; holding put options can serve as a hedge for existing long positions.

Additionally, for traders who wish to more precisely time their positions around the release of non-farm payrolls data,Futu currently supports$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Pre-market options for index options.Pre-market options trade during the U.S. pre-market session, allowing you to act ahead of major economic data releases on the same day—unlike ETFs, which require positioning at least one day in advance. (Non-farm payroll data is typically released one hour before the U.S. market opens.)

This is especially useful for events like the non-farm payroll report, where the market direction becomes clear immediately upon release—You can express your view within the shortest possible time window, rather than waiting until the market opens and the news is already priced in.However, there are a few points to keep in mind:

Lower liquidity: Trading volume is typically low during pre-market hours, and bid-ask spreads can be significantly wider than during regular hours, which may result in less favorable execution prices.

High volatility: In the pre-market session following major data releases, price swings can be extremely sharp—prices may jump significantly within just a few seconds, posing challenges for both trade execution and emotional discipline.

Beginners are advised to observe firstIf you're new to options, we recommend starting with standard options on ETFs like SPY.Once you're familiar with how options work, you can then try advanced strategies like pre-market options.In simple terms, index pre-market options are primarily a 'precision strike' tool designed for experienced traders.

Target #2: $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$

This is the most watched stock-level event this week: SpaceX willrelease its first earnings report since going public after market close on August 4, followed closely bya lock-up expiration on August 6. With these two events coinciding, market sentiment has already priced in expectations—SPCX’s current share price is down roughly 50% from its post-listing high, and implied volatility remains elevated.

However, our advice is: don’t rush into positions now, and don’t jump in immediately after seeing the earnings report.

This is one of the most common pitfalls for options beginners: getting excited about big-company earnings and thinking, 'With such major news, it’d be a shame not to buy some options and take a shot.'But in reality, buying options ahead of earnings is often 'buying at the most expensive time.'

The reason is simple: current implied volatility (IV) has already been fully priced in due to earnings expectations, making options 'expensive.' After earnings are released—regardless of whether results are good or bad—the removal of uncertainty typically causes IV to drop sharply (known as 'IV Crush'). Even if your directional call is correct, the option’s price may not deliver the expected profit due to the decline in volatility. In worse cases, you could be right on direction but still lose money—because the stock’s price gain isn’t enough to offset the price erosion caused by the drop in IV.

We already illustrated this last Friday in our brief recap using Meta as a real-life example where investors were right on direction but still lost money. Fellow investors interested in this can revisit that analysis.

$100 Options Quick Recap | Storage Stocks Stage a Massive Rally—10x Gains in a Day! Meta Got the Direction Right but Still Lost Money? The Two Faces of Options

A smarter approach is: wait until after the August 4 earnings release, when IV has dropped, then observe the stock’s price action and market reaction before positioning. This way, option prices are 'cheaper' and offer better value. In short:Let the bullet fly for a while。

Below, we still outline bullish and bearish frameworks for fellow investors to reference after earnings and the subsequent IV drop:

Bullish rationale (for post-earnings observation and positioning):

If the first earnings report beats expectations, it could reshape the valuation narrative: the market currently lacks concrete data to anchor SpaceX’s profitability. If the debut report shows strong Starlink revenue or rocket launch business gross margins exceeding expectations, it could trigger a valuation re-rating.

Once lock-up expiration pressure is released, the stock may actually move forward with less baggage: the August 6 lock-up expiration is a known headwind. If selling pressure on that day is limited and the share price stabilizes, it would instead signal healthy ownership structure and could serve as a buy signal.

The long-term narrative remains intact: Institutions like Bernstein believe SpaceX's long-term valuation hinges on strategic initiatives such as orbital data centers and Starlink's global coverage, and short-term earnings volatility does not alter this core thesis.

Bearish rationale (suitable for post-earnings observation and positioning):

The first earnings report could expose profitability pressures: SpaceX currently has a negative P/E ratio (operating at a loss). If the report shows losses wider than expected or slowing Starlink subscriber growth, the share price could decline further.

Actual selling pressure from lock-up expiration: Early investors and employees holding shares may seek to monetize their positions after the lock-up period ends, increasing near-term supply and weighing on the stock price.

Valuation debate remains unresolved: The market is divided on long-term visions such as 'AI data centers in space.' If near-term results fail to support this narrative, the high valuation could face downward revision.

Important Notice

Options are instruments with expiration dates: If the stock price hasn’t reached the strike price by expiration, the option may expire worthless, and you’ll lose the entire premium paid. This is the key difference between options and stocks—stocks can rebound after a drop, but options cease to exist upon expiration.

SPY and QQQ exhibit strong correlation: Both are heavily influenced by non-farm payroll data and show highly correlated price movements. Taking directional options positions in both simultaneously essentially doubles your bet on the same event, doubling your risk as well.

Timing matters significantly for SPCXImplied volatility (IV) is elevated ahead of earnings, making options less attractive; IV typically drops after earnings, offering a better entry window. Patience is more important than impulsive action.

Entry Timing ReferenceFor non-farm payroll–related tickers (e.g., SPY), if you plan to trade, position ahead of the data release (Friday at 20:30 Beijing time); for SPCX, it’s better to wait until August 5 or 6—after earnings have been digested—before reassessing.

That’s all for this week—see you in Friday’s recap!

Not familiar with options basics? Study up before jumping in.

If, while reading this opportunity list, you're still unclear about concepts like 'What is a Long Call?' or 'How do I interpret strike prices?', don’t rush to place orders—take some time first to solidify your foundation. We’ve compiled practical beginner resources below; consider bookmarking them:

Long Call: Buy a call option

Long Put: Buy a put option

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Disclaimer

This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, there is no assurance that losses will be avoided. Market conditions may prevent these orders from being executed. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet the required margin within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. Nevertheless, you remain liable for any deficit balance in your account resulting from such events. Therefore, you should thoroughly research and understand options before trading, and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial condition and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should familiarize yourself with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration.

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