Tech earnings script leaked: a charlatan, a lapdog, and an invisible man

A new week, a new ‘exam season.’

Wall Street’s casino is once again hosting its most classic recurring show—earnings reports as mystery boxes. This time, the spotlight falls on three dramatic performers: a ‘big data mystic’ who makes a living telling the government’s fortune (Palantir), a ‘perpetual runner-up’ forever waiting under Jensen Huang’s table for scraps (AMD), and an ‘ultimate background character’ you use every day but never remember the name of (SanDisk).

Let’s dissect them one by one.

First up: Palantir. $Palantir (PLTR.US)$

Don’t listen to this company’s earnings call like it’s financial news—treat it like a fantasy film. The CEO sits down and immediately declares, ‘We’ve empowered the foundational operating system of human civilization with AI.’ Translation: We built the Department of Defense an outrageously expensive Excel spreadsheet. Tomorrow’s earnings report isn’t really about revenue; it’s about whether Palantir can conjure up commercial clients sexier than government contracts on its AI stage. If it fails, the mystic has lost his magic; if it succeeds, Gandalf has landed a new job.

The key to the earnings report isn’t how much money it made, but ratherAre non-government clients still breathing? If all its growth relies on Uncle Sam’s checkbook, then its AI-powered commercial narrative is pure performance art. Keep a close eye on the ‘commercial customer revenue growth rate.’ If it’s below 15%, it’s not selling AI philosophy—it’s peddling an AI horror story. Time to bail.

Now back to AMD. $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$

In the brutal battleground of semiconductors, NVIDIA is sitting at the head table feasting on premium Wagyu beef, while AMD is crouched nearby gnawing on bones. But this dog enjoys every bite with gusto—and maintains impeccable posture. Every earnings call, it conveys one clear message: 'I may not beat Jensen Huang, but I’m cheap!' This time around, we’re watching its AI chip business closely. If it can’t even get a hot bite of those bones, then it truly becomes nothing more than a tragic supporting character in tech—working out furiously just to impress itself.

Whenever Jensen Huang so much as coughs, AMD comes down with a fever. Every time NVIDIA surges to levels that make investors balk, the market glances back at AMD and says, 'Oh look, there’s still a cheap backup option.' That’s AMD’s core value proposition—the budget-friendly alternative in the AI sector. With this earnings report, don’t fall for management’s talk about gross margins—that stuff is like toothpaste; squeeze hard enough and something always comes out. We’re laser-focused on one metric:Has data center GPU revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter? NVIDIA next door is doubling every quarter. You, AMD, wield the 'MI300X'—a supposed game-changer. If you only sell 20% more than last quarter, you’re basically starving in the wind. The market can accept you as number two, but it won’t tolerate you failing to even sip warm wash water from NVIDIA’s feet. If AI chip sales don’t surge when the earnings drop, then it’s not AMD—it’s TMD (Totally Missing the Dot).

Finally, let’s talk about SanDisk. $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$

One word describes this company: invisible. Its memory cards are everywhere—in your phone, camera, laptop—but you barely register it as anything more than 'a brand.' It’s like that quiet classmate who always ranked middling academically, rarely spoke up, and vanished after graduation. This earnings report will answer a fundamental question: Are global consumers still buying electronic junk? If yes, it survives; if not, it instantly becomes an electronic ghost. There’s no middle ground.

This earnings season, watch inventory levels. If days of inventory on hand keep declining, it means downstream demand is finally unblocking—so the party can keep going. But if inventory starts piling up again, well, that exposes the 'false recovery' narrative in consumer electronics for the lie it is, and SanDisk will have to stand outside the warehouse crying in each other’s arms with its old partner Western Digital.

To sum up the relationship among these three companies:

Palantir is on stage performing rain-summoning rituals, AMD is flexing its muscles and scrambling for seats in the audience, while SanDisk crouches in the corner counting how much gear everyone has dropped. And we? We’re just the spectators. Is the show any good? Hard to say. But how much did your ticket cost? That depends on your position size.

A brutal thought for today:

Earnings 'season' isn’t a trend—it’s a reckoning. Every company’s earnings report is like a flush toilet: once the data goes down the drain, you finally see who’s been swimming naked and who’s wearing the emperor’s new clothes. Tomorrow, these three toilets—excuse me, these three companies—flush first. May none of you in the audience get splashed.

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