【This Week’s Market Watch】Cloud giants swinging like elevators! How should you position yourself in the second half of this earnings season? Focus on these market-resilient 'dark horse' stocks.
Recent global markets have undoubtedly given many fellow investors a rollercoaster-like experience. Just days ago, tech stocks underwent a sharp pullback, only to rebound by the end of the week. With heightened market volatility and frequent sector rotation, how can we clearly identify real capital flows and find suitable opportunities amid the turbulence? Today, we’ll break down this week’s key investment takeaways in the simplest and clearest way possible.
Let’s quickly recap the core clues left by last week’s market—in just one minute:
– US equities diverged; AI stocks rebounded sharply at week’s closeLast week, major US indices saw slight gains amid volatility, with SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) rising +1.10% and +0.55% respectively for the week. Earnings reports were mixed: Microsoft and Amazon rallied post-earnings thanks to strong cloud performance, while Meta and Apple plunged due to weak guidance. Capital flows clearly favored 'cloud over hardware' (Microsoft and Amazon surged, but the semiconductor ETF SOXX dropped 4.20%). However, AI-related stocks staged a collective rebound on Thursday and Friday, spurred by news of fund buying interest ahead of Thursday’s market open.
– Hong Kong stocks saw capital inflows returnHong Kong equities performed strongly last week, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rebounding 3.69% and 4.31% respectively for the week, led by Tencent (+9.34%) and Alibaba (+6.36%). This was primarily driven by capital rotating back from previously sold-off AI positions, as fundamentals remained largely unchanged.
– Rate hike concerns persistAlthough the Fed held rates steady at its latest meeting, three FOMC members advocated for a rate hike. As long as oil prices and inflation remain uncontained, policy pressure will continue. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 17.
1. Key Macro Events & Market Opportunities
📌 Event 1: Upcoming July Non-Farm Payrolls data release
According to a Reuters survey, non-farm payrolls for July are expected to increase by approximately 83,000, with the unemployment rate around 4.3%. If the non-farm payroll figure significantly exceeds 100,000—especially if accompanied by stronger-than-expected wage growth—it could easily be interpreted by the market as a hawkish inflation risk.
– Opportunity InsightsFor fellow investors, the ideal scenario would be a 'modest miss'—meaning job gains slightly below expectations, coupled with cooling wage growth and no significant downward revision to prior figures. This would effectively ease pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and calm market concerns about a September rate hike, thereby creating a valuable short-term rebound window for AI, semiconductor, and other high-valuation growth stocks.
– Investor FocusFellow investors may consider maintaining a cautious stance early this week. If the data aligns with expectations of a 'moderate cooldown,' and you remain bullish on the broader U.S. equity market, you could moderately increase your allocation to broad-market U.S. equity ETFs or tech-sector ETFs through dollar-cost averaging or phased buying to mitigate volatility risk from concentrated positions.
Screening criteria: Futubull app > Market > ETFs > Index ETFs > Top 5 by trading volume, as of August 3, 2026, at 15:25
Source: Futubull app > Market > ETFs > Index ETFs, as of August 3, 2026, at 15:25
📌 Event 2: JPY Exchange Rate Volatility and Monetary Policy Shift
The Japanese yen, long used globally as a low-cost funding currency, is losing stability. Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy is gradually nearing its end, and the U.S. has directly intervened in support of the yen for the first time—signaling that disorderly yen volatility is now threatening the stability of U.S. Treasuries and global financial markets.
– Opportunity InsightsThe unwinding of yen carry trades has become an 'invisible driver' behind recent global asset price volatility. As the yen appreciates and funding costs rise, some cross-border capital is being forced out of highly leveraged assets like U.S. equities, triggering temporary corrections. However, this may also redirect capital toward more reasonably valued, defensive safe-haven assets.
– Investor FocusUntil the yen exchange rate stabilizes fully, fellow investors should manage overall portfolio leverage carefully and avoid chasing rallies blindly. Asset allocation should prioritize 'stability and diversification,' with a moderate increase in exposure to defensive sectors (such as high-dividend assets).
2. Key Industry Events and Market Opportunities
📌 Event 1: Earnings Season Continues with Key Tech Names (AMD, Palantir, etc. reporting this week)
Although earnings reports from major cloud giants have largely been released, the heat of this week’s U.S. earnings season remains strong. After-market Monday features the highly anticipated Palantir (PLTR); AMD and SPCX will report earnings after market close on Tuesday; and SanDisk and Western Digital (WDC) will follow on Wednesday after the bell.
– Opportunity InsightsThis week’s reporting companies are mostly positioned in the midstream and application segments of the AI supply chain. For example, AMD’s results and guidance will directly reflect the market’s actual demand for AI chips beyond NVIDIA, while PLTR represents the monetization progress of enterprise AI software applications. These earnings reports will serve as key catalysts to validate whether the 'AI narrative' can solidify its footing.
– Investor Focus：
• Clients with higher risk tolerance may consider the underlying stocks and related options strategies.
• Clients with lower risk tolerance may consider holding a basket of industry ETFs that include these leading companies (e.g., semiconductor or tech ETFs), which allows them to capture the benefits of sector innovation while mitigating the risk of a post-earnings plunge in any single stock through diversification.
Semiconductor ETFs:
Source: Futubull App > Market > ETFs > Thematic ETFs > Top 5 by Trading Volume, as of August 3, 2026, 3:25 PM
Source: Futubull App > Market > ETFs > Thematic ETFs, as of August 3, 2026, 3:25 PM
AI ETFs:
Source: Futubull App > Market > ETFs > Thematic ETFs > Top 5 by Trading Volume, as of August 3, 2026, 3:25 PM
Source: Futubull App > Market > ETFs > Thematic ETFs, as of August 3, 2026, 3:25 PM
📌 Event #2: Earnings from non-tech blue-chip leaders (CAT and LLY to report this week)
In addition to tech stocks, two companies with relatively low market buzz but extremely high market capitalization and sector representation will report earnings this week: Caterpillar (CAT) after the market close on Tuesday, and Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) after the market close on Wednesday.
– Opportunity InsightsIndustrial giant Caterpillar’s (CAT) order performance serves as a 'barometer' for global infrastructure spending and real-economy sentiment; meanwhile, pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly and Co’s (LLY) sales growth in the weight-loss drug segment reflects the growth momentum of the biotech and healthcare sector. Against a backdrop of elevated tech valuations and market rotation into other sectors, better-than-expected results from these non-tech blue chips could attract more defensive capital into their respective sectors.
◦ Clients who are directly bullish on such opportunities,
◦ Clients with higher risk tolerance may consider the underlying stocks and related options strategies
◦ Clients with lower risk tolerance may focus on sector ETFs that hold these leading companies, which allows them to capture the benefits of industry innovation while mitigating the risk of post-earnings plunges in individual stocks through diversification.
– Investor Focus：
For investors seeking a balanced portfolio, allocating modestly to sectors like healthcare and high-quality industrial stocks—while maintaining exposure to tech—can effectively reduce portfolio volatility and truly help you 'sleep well at night.'
3. Dividend Opportunities: Selected High-Yield Hong Kong Stocks Going Ex-Dividend This Week
In a volatile market environment, stable dividend payouts provide a degree of defensive cushion for our portfolios.
Below is a curated list of high-yield Hong Kong-listed stocks going ex-dividend this week:
⚠️ Investor Reminder:
1. Meaning of the Ex-dividend Date: To be eligible for this dividend payment, investors must hold the stock beforethe ex-dividend dateBuy and hold this stock. Shares purchased on or after the ex-dividend date will not be eligible for the upcoming dividend.
2. Take a rational view of high dividend yields：Some stocks (such as Topsports and Midea Real Estate) show double-digit, exceptionally high dividend yields, which may include one-time special dividends or be influenced by prior share price adjustments.When allocating capital, fellow investors should avoid blindly buying solely based on high dividend yields. Instead, they should conduct a comprehensive assessment incorporating the company's core fundamentals to avoid falling into the trap of 'gaining dividends but losing principal.'
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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