Daily Options Outlook | Microsoft validates monetization, up over 8% in pre-market; Lam Research beats earnings expectations, rises over 6% in pre-market; Apple and Amazon earnings to be tested tonight

Today's Options Opportunity Outlook

On the macro front,$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$Up 0.75% in pre-market; the Fed holds rates steady, while a tech sell-off triggers a technical correction in the Nasdaq 100 Index. $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ Semiconductor stocks faced heavy selling pressure. The options market shows QQQ’s put/call volume ratio dropped to 1.02 on the previous trading day, with implied volatility (IV) reaching 30.51%.

At the individual stock level, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ shares rose 8.62% in pre-market, while $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ shares fell 8.98% in pre-market. Microsoft reported fourth-quarter revenue of $90 billion, with Azure growth accelerating to 43%. The company expects Azure to grow approximately 45% next quarter, and Copilot paid users have surpassed 30 million.The market had previously priced in about 6.6% earnings-related volatility via options; the current pre-market gain has already exceeded that level, indicating that the fundamental improvement from earnings surpassed prior options market pricing.

It should be clarified that Microsoft has not materially scaled back its AI investments.The company maintains its capital expenditure plan of approximately $175 billion for fiscal 2026, with some numerical changes stemming from accounting reclassifications related to data center leases. This rally is truly driven by Azure’s re-acceleration, improved visibility into AI revenue, and Microsoft generating approximately $19.6 billion in free cash flow despite high investment levels.

Tonight is better suited for trading the post-earnings trend continuation rather than chasing expensive calls right at the open. If the stock holds its pre-market gains after the initial profit-taking and then resumes upward momentum on higher volume, bullish spreads offer better risk-reward; if the stock spikes at the open but quickly falls back within the range implied by pre-earnings options, it suggests the move is overextended and a short-term gap-fill may follow.

$Lam Research (LRCX.US)$ shares rose 6.99% in pre-market trading. Lam Research reported quarterly revenue of $6.72 billion, up 30% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $1.82—both beating market expectations. More importantly, the company guided for next quarter’s revenue of approximately $8.1 billion and adjusted EPS of around $2.15, significantly above prior consensus estimates of $7.09 billion and $1.83, representing an earnings beat accompanied by raised forward guidance.

The core of market trading revolves around AI servers, advanced processes, HBM, and memory capacity expansion, which are still transmitting demand to equipment orders. The recent sharp correction in the semiconductor sector is primarily due to overcrowding and concerns over capital expenditure returns. Lam Research’s (LRCX) guidance suggests that, at least on the equipment delivery side, the order cycle has not yet significantly cooled down. However, rising long-end U.S. Treasury yields will continue to pressure high-valuation tech stocks. Watch whether LRCX can hold its gap-up opening and simultaneously drive AMAT, KLAC, and NVDA higher; if LRCX opens strong but sells off intraday and equipment stocks fail to follow, the market is still pricing in sector de-rating, making direct call buying less favorable in terms of risk-reward.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$ and$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Apple will report earnings after market close tonight, serving as a critical validation point for the 'light-capex AI' strategy. Its stock price previously breached a $5 trillion market cap, indicating the market has already priced in high expectations for the device replacement cycle, services revenue, and AI product launches. Key metrics to watch include the sustainability of iPhone demand, the impact of memory costs on gross margins, the timing of AI feature rollouts, and whether Apple can maintain its free cash flow advantage despite limited capital expenditures.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ AWS is the most important indicator tonight. The market is focused on whether its growth rate can accelerate further from last quarter’s 28%, while also assessing the pressure that the company’s roughly $200 billion annual capital expenditure plan places on free cash flow.

Amazon will serve as a third validation point between Microsoft and Meta. If AWS growth approaches or exceeds 30%, margins remain stable, and capital expenditures do not see another significant upward revision, the market may categorize Amazon into Microsoft’s camp—'high investment with returns now materializing'—making bullish spreads more appropriate. Conversely, if AWS growth misses expectations, capital expenditures are further revised upward, and free cash flow comes under pressure, the stock is more likely to follow Meta’s trajectory downward, increasing the conviction for bearish spreads.

Yesterday’s Options Market Recap

Index Options

On July 29 Eastern Time, U.S. equity index options saw elevated trading volume, with a total of 6.46 million contracts traded. The put/call volume ratio rose to 1.14.

For the upcoming expiration date,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Options volume distribution showed the following characteristics: peak put volume occurred at the 7,300 strike, while peak call volume was at the 7,400 strike.

Single-Stock Options

$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Closed up 0.90%, with 582,700 options contracts traded; the put/call volume ratio declined to 0.35. Alphabet raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance from $18–19 billion to $19.5–20.5 billion.

$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Closed down 9.94%, with 1,295,200 options contracts traded; the put/call volume ratio dropped to 0.69. Micron Technology CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold $37.3 million worth of shares last week, and the company’s stock has fallen 34% from its June high.

Options Volume Rankings

Among the top 10 stocks by options volume,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Tesla had the highest put/call volume ratio, reaching 0.99. Tesla’s stock has declined for five consecutive days, with second-quarter results missing expectations, putting its trillion-dollar market cap status at risk.

The highest put/call open interest ratio is$Micron Technology (MU.US)$, reaching 1.24.

Implied Volatility Leaderboard (underlying market cap > $1 billion and options volume > 100,000)

$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$Implied volatility peaked at 153.53%, down 1.97% from the previous trading day. NEBIUS shares plunged more than 10% for two consecutive days, impacted by the sell-off in AI infrastructure stocks and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.

$Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR.US)$Implied volatility rose the most, reaching 131.69%, up 5.13% from the previous trading day. KBW analysts lowered their price target for Bitdeer Technologies Group from $17 to $14, maintaining a Hold rating.

Risk Warning

An option is a contract that grants the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date. Option prices are influenced by multiple factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility.

Implied volatility reflects the market’s expectation of future price fluctuations over a given period. It is derived by reverse-engineering the Black-Scholes option pricing model and is generally viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate greater volatility, they may be willing to pay higher premiums for options to hedge risk, resulting in higher implied volatility.

Traders and investors use implied volatility to assess the attractiveness of option prices, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer
This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, advice, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, you may not be able to avoid losses. Market conditions may prevent the execution of such orders. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet such margin requirements within the stipulated time, your open positions may be liquidated. You remain fully liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Therefore, you should thoroughly research and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully read"Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options"。

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