Emotional companion robots couldn't stop Ubtech Robotics' stock price from falling

(This article was written by Lujium Business Review and published by TMTPost with authorization)

Article by Lu Jiu Business Review

Diversification isn't wrong, but when newcomers redefine the core humanoid robotics segment with lower costs and higher efficiency, Ubtech Robotics’ 'full-stack, full-scenario' strategy has instead become a burden.

On July 2, 2026, a regulatory approval letter from China's Securities Regulatory Commission granted Unitree Technology official entry into an IPO on the STAR Market. The company, founded just ten years ago, is set to become the first A-share listed 'humanoid robotics' firm, with a proposed valuation of RMB 42 billion, annual adjusted net profit of RMB 600 million, and a gross margin of 60%.

Meanwhile, in the Hong Kong market, Ubtech Robotics—the true 'first humanoid robotics stock'—continues trading around HK$78, below its IPO price of HK$90. Its market capitalization stands at roughly HK$56 billion (approximately RMB 50 billion), seemingly comparable to Unitree’s valuation. However, a glance at its financial statements tells a different story: RMB 2.001 billion in revenue and a net loss of RMB 790 million in 2025, with cumulative losses exceeding RMB 4.2 billion over the past four years.

When Unitree Technology’s founder Wang Xingxing rings the opening bell on the STAR Market, Ubtech Robotics’ investors will have to confront a harsh question: If Unitree is worth RMB 42 billion, what should Ubtech be valued at?

In December 2023, Zhou Jian stood at the doorstep of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with Walker S, declaring it 'a new chapter in human history struck by robots.' At that time, Ubtech Robotics was the world’s first humanoid robotics company to enter public markets, and capital markets were willing to pay a premium for a vision of the future.

But as the story has been repeated year after year, the numbers have only grown uglier.

In 2025, Ubtech Robotics delivered 1,079 full-size humanoid robots for the full year, generating revenue of RMB 821 million, a year-over-year increase of 2,203.7%—a staggering figure at first glance, but upon closer inspection, the 2024 base was only three units. In other words, a company that had been operating for 14 years and raised over RMB 5.7 billion sold just three full-size humanoid robots in 2024.

A sharper contrast comes from Unitree. In 2025, Unitree Technology reported revenue of RMB 1.708 billion, net profit excluding non-recurring items of RMB 600 million, shipped 5,500 humanoid robots at an average price of approximately RMB 170,000 per unit, and maintained a gross margin close to 60%.

Place the two companies’ figures side by side:

One sells units at RMB 760,000 and still loses money; the other sells at RMB 170,000 and earns RMB 600 million in profit. This isn’t merely a price war—it’s a fundamental divergence in business models.

Unitree has pursued a strategy of 'radical hardware cost reduction + open-source ecosystem + scaling production.' It independently develops motors, reducers, and controllers, achieving over 90% domestic localization for core components, driving the price of bipedal humanoid robots down from hundreds of thousands of yuan to under 100,000 yuan. Its cost structure is extremely lean—R&D expenses accounted for just 7.7% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, while sales expenses were only 6.5%. The company does almost no marketing, relying instead on organic brand traffic and word-of-mouth.

Ubtech Robotics, by contrast, resembles a 'do-everything' robotics conglomerate. Its product portfolio spans educational robots, logistics robots, consumer smart hardware (including cat litter boxes, robotic lawn mowers, vacuum cleaners, and pool-cleaning robots), as well as its humanoid Walker series. In 2025, revenue from 'other smart hardware devices' reached RMB 499 million, logistics robot revenue declined by 16.9%, and educational robot sales grew by just 13.7%.

On June 30, 2026, Ubtech Robotics held a grand launch event in Shenzhen. Under the spotlight, a row of lifelike humanoid robots with smooth skin and vacant eyes slowly walked onto the stage. This marked the debut of 'UWORLD,' Ubtech’s new consumer brand, with its first product line—the U1 series—positioned as an emotional companion. Pricing ranged from RMB 119,800 to RMB 990,000.

At the end of the launch event, Ubtech announced that pre-orders for the U1 series across all channels had exceeded 13,361 units. Based on the lowest-tier configuration, this implies theoretical revenue exceeding RMB 1.5 billion. Founder Zhou Jian stated he was dedicating 50% of his focus to home-use scenarios, declaring, 'Human-robot companionship represents the first ever essential market in human history where emotional value has no upper limit and companionship knows no boundaries.'

However, the market's real reaction proved far more complex than the applause at the launch event.

First is the severe mismatch between product functionality and price.Both the U1 Lite (RMB 119,800) and U1 Pro (RMB 169,800) are either half-body or full-body fixed-base models that cannot walk autonomously or perform household chores—they don’t vacuum, cook, or fetch your packages. Their core function is simply 'chatting with you.' Online commentators aptly summarized it as 'a silicone doll plus Dabao [a popular AI chatbot].'

Second is the cold reception from distribution channels.The author checked major e-commerce platforms and found that the official Tmall flagship store showed only one unit sold, and neither JD.com nor the Tmall official flagship store displayed any customer reviews. This stands in eerie contrast to the grand narrative of '13,000 pre-orders.'

Another issue is the low deposit threshold but high final payment burden.The U1 series requires only a RMB 3,000 deposit for pre-orders, with cancellations allowed at any time before July 15. Although Ubtech Robotics’ management stated in a closed-door meeting that the overall cancellation rate was below 8%, initial deliveries did not begin until September 16—leaving a three-month gap between pre-order and delivery during which public skepticism has been brewing.

A deeper contradiction lies in questioning the authenticity of demand.China indeed has 127 million people living alone, making emotional companionship a genuine pain point. But when a RMB 120,000 robot can only sit by your bedside to chat, lasts just 2–4 hours on a single charge, and requires regular maintenance, is the 'emotional value' sufficient to justify repeat purchases at scale?

An industry analyst offered a sharp assessment: 'The U1 series currently resembles an early attempt to find PMF (product-market fit). The high price point and orders for tens of thousands of units indicate some underlying demand, but an annualized production capacity of only 6,000 units and an adjusted net loss of RMB 690 million reveal significant scaling challenges. At this stage, it’s likely a combination of technical feasibility testing and market education.'

Capital markets reacted with similar nuance. On the day of the product launch, Ubtech Robotics’ stock surged more than 17%, but as product details emerged, the share price quickly retraced, falling 9.92% the next day. Investors cast their votes with real money: they’re not yet fully convinced by this story.

By 2026, China’s humanoid robotics sector has already settled into a three-way rivalry—but the three companies are pursuing distinctly different paths.

Wang Xingxing’s philosophy is simple: drive down costs and scale up production. Unitree’s core competitive advantage lies in its exceptional supply chain control: in-house development of motors, reducers, and force-controlled sensors, with over 90% self-reliance in core components, freeing itself from overseas dependency. In 2025, 16 H1 robots performed yangko at CCTV’s Spring Festival Gala, and Unitree swept four speed-event titles at the World Humanoid Robot Games, maximizing its brand momentum.

Unitree has a clear product portfolio: B-series quadruped robots (industrial-grade) and Go-series (consumer-grade); full-size humanoid robots H1/H2; and small-to-medium-sized humanoids G1/R1. Its pricing ranges from a few thousand to over one hundred thousand RMB, covering research, industrial, and consumer applications. Its open-source ecosystem hosts more than 40 projects on GitHub, with an active developer community.

However, Unitree’s weaknesses are also evident: it has limited experience in embodied intelligence foundation models and deep deployment in industrial scenarios. It resembles an 'extreme hardware company' rather than a platform-oriented 'AI + robotics' enterprise.

Zhou Jian’s ambition is to build a 'human-robot symbiosis' platform. From servo actuators to emotional AI foundation models, and from automotive factories to living rooms, Ubtech aims to cover every possible scenario. By 2025, its Walker S series had already been deployed for training in automotive plants including BYD, Geely, and Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor, with industrial applications accounting for over 80% of its revenue.

Ubtech’s technical depth is genuine: it holds 2,985 globally authorized patents, including 508 overseas patents. The Walker S2, with 52 degrees of freedom, offers a 15kg payload capacity and an autonomous battery-swapping system, and has accumulated over 100 million data points from automotive manufacturing scenarios.

However, the cost of trying to 'do everything' is resource fragmentation. In 2025, Ubtech spent RMB 507 million on R&D, representing an R&D expense ratio of 25.36%—far higher than Unitree’s 7.73%. This heavy investment has not translated into a clear technological lead but has instead continuously eroded profitability. More troubling is its accounts receivable: by the end of 2025, the balance stood at RMB 13.02 billion, with delayed payments from government-related clients resulting in credit impairment losses of RMB 1.51 billion.

As one of the highest-valued companies in the sector (approximately RMB 18 billion), Agibot has chosen a more 'AI-native' path. Rather than pursuing a single blockbuster product, it is building a complete infrastructure encompassing a 'multi-robot family, data platform, simulation training, and overseas channels.' In 2025, it shipped 5,168 units, ranking first globally according to Omdia data.

Agibot's strategy is 'mass production first, data closed-loop.' It entered China's A-share market indirectly through the acquisition of Shangwei New Materials and officially announced in July 2026 that it had initiated the Hong Kong IPO process, demonstrating exceptional capital market execution capabilities. Its strengths lie in integrating large models with embodied intelligence and exploring a Robotics-as-a-Service (RaaS) business model.

However, Agibot was founded only three years ago, and whether its technological depth and supply chain control can support its ambitious platform narrative remains to be validated over time.

Following Unitree’s listing, the entire embodied intelligence sector will undergo a significant valuation reassessment. If Ubtech Robotics fails to provide clear answers on the following dimensions, valuation pressure will only intensify.

First, scalable delivery capability in industrial settings.

This is currently Ubtech Robotics’ clearest competitive moat. As of 2025, the Walker series has nearly RMB 1.4 billion in confirmed orders. The S3 model is scheduled for mass production in 2026, with a starting price reduced to RMB 180,000 and an annual shipment target of 5,000 units. If humanoid robots can transition from ‘training pilots’ to ‘consistently generating value’ in automotive factories, Ubtech Robotics will prove it’s not just capable of building robots—but of making money from them.

Yet the challenge lies in Unitree also accelerating its penetration into industrial applications. Once Unitree deploys sub-RMB-100,000 humanoid robots into factories, how much of Ubtech’s customer base can its RMB 760,000 Walker retain?

Second, validation of a profitable consumer business model.

The U1 series represents Ubtech Robotics’ critical leap from B2B to B2C. However, the ‘emotional companionship’ segment is essentially selling a ‘non-essential luxury.’ With an entry price of RMB 119,800—approaching the cost of a family car—and limited functionality coupled with unproven market reception, real user feedback, return rates, and repurchase rates from early adopters will determine whether this narrative can continue.

A more realistic scenario may be that, in the short term, the U1 series functions as a ‘premium toy’ or ‘commercial display unit’ rather than a true household necessity. Ubtech Robotics must answer this question: once the novelty wears off, will users still be willing to pay high maintenance costs for a ‘chatty machine that doesn’t do chores’?

Third, balancing cost reduction with gross margin.

Ubtech Robotics' gross margin in 2025 is projected at 37.7%, an improvement from 28.7% in 2024, yet still significantly below Unitree’s 60%. The Walker S3 aims to reduce its unit price from RMB 760,000 to RMB 180,000, which means gross margin must rise in tandem to sustain profitability. This requires Ubtech Robotics to achieve greater breakthroughs in supply chain integration—its acquisition of a 29.99% stake in Zhejiang Fenglong Electric is precisely aimed at strengthening in-house control over core components such as servo motors.

Fourth, shifting the narrative from 'story-driven' to 'profit-driven.'

Hong Kong’s market is becoming less tolerant of loss-making tech companies. Ubtech Robotics has accumulated losses exceeding RMB 4.2 billion over four years. Although its adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to RMB 438 million in 2025, it remains far from breakeven. Unitree’s listing will provide a clear valuation benchmark: what P/E multiple should a profitable humanoid robotics company command? And what about unprofitable ones?

A remark by an investor is worth pondering: 'When no company has a clear lead in embodied intelligence technology, capital strength becomes more critical for firms. Even if a listed robotics company remains unprofitable and its products or technology aren’t industry-leading, it can still maintain a market cap in the tens of billions of dollars and won’t lack funding.'

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