In-Depth Analysis of Apple Stock: Mass Sell-offs by Giants ≠ Bearish Outlook; Retail Investors Should Avoid Blindly Copying Big Players

Apple's share price has repeatedly hit new all-time highs, yet Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Duan Yongping have been steadily trimming their Apple positions in batches. This contrarian move draws a clear investment red line for ordinary US stock investors: the timing, holding periods, and capital scale of these big players are nearly impossible for retail investors to replicate—do not blindly follow their trades.

I. Reviewing the complete investment journeys of two investing titans in Apple

1. Duan Yongping: A 15-year long-term position—spoke up during market lows with no followers, gradually realized gains at elevated levels

In 2011, following Steve Jobs’ passing and widespread market pessimism about Apple’s future prospects, Duan Yongping heavily accumulated Apple shares within the bottom price range. Over subsequent years, he consistently added to his position during major market sell-offs. Holding a single-account position for 14 years, his peak return approached 19x, with an overall long-term portfolio return estimated between 50x and 100x.

During market troughs, he faced universal skepticism and had no followers willing to join his position. Now that Apple has reached the top of global market capitalization and trades at historically high valuations, Duan has been steadily reducing his stake over multiple consecutive quarters—trimming his Apple allocation from a peak of 95% (an extremely concentrated position) down to roughly 36%. His selling is not a rejection of Apple’s fundamentals but rather part of optimizing his asset allocation, locking in massive unrealized gains, and reallocating capital to other opportunities.

Many retail investors only notice that he’s selling now but couldn’t endure the volatility of holding for over a decade or withstand deep bear-market drawdowns—and thus naturally missed out on commensurate returns.

Additional background: Duan Yongping was an early founding investor in both OPPO and vivo. After the two companies split, he retained approximately 10% of OPPO and less than 20% of vivo. With decades of deep experience in the consumer electronics industry, his understanding of smartphone hardware, consumer psychology, and brand premium far exceeds that of most ordinary investors. Judging Apple’s value purely based on short-term price movements fundamentally overestimates one’s own depth of industry insight.

2. Buffett: Apple became a legendary holding; large-scale trimming at highs driven primarily by position risk control and capital reallocation

Berkshire Hathaway once held Apple as its top equity position, with the stake peaking at over 40% of its stock portfolio—making it one of the most successful investments in Buffett’s career. Since 2024, Berkshire has executed substantial, continuous reductions, shrinking its Apple holdings by more than 70%. The core rationale rests on two points:

1. After significant price appreciation, the position had become overly concentrated, necessitating portfolio diversification to manage risk;

2. In the current high-valuation phase of the U.S. stock market, attractive low-priced investment opportunities are scarce; selling Apple generates liquidity aligned with Berkshire’s internal capital deployment needs.

Even with continued减持, Apple remains Berkshire’s top holding, and the underlying long-term valuation conviction has not wavered.

Second, Apple’s moat remains solid—its '50 million high-end paying users' underpin a perpetual 'Apple tax.'

Apple’s recent share price reaching new highs is never rooted in short-term speculative capital—it stems from a closed-loop, extremely hard-to-disrupt business moat:

1. Hardware brand moat + exceptionally high user stickiness

Apple boasts a vast global base of high-net-worth loyal users, whose device replacement cycle has stretched to over 3.6 years. Premium iPhone models consistently command significant pricing premiums, and Apple has long captured the lion’s share of profits in the global premium smartphone market. The switching cost for users migrating to Android ecosystems is extremely high, and user retention rates have remained above 90% for years.

2. A closed-loop ecosystem continuously collects the 'Apple tax,' generating stable, recurring cash flows

Leveraging over 2.5 billion active Apple devices worldwide, App Store commissions, iCloud, Apple Music, AppleCare, and AI subscription services form a steady pipeline of cash flow. More than 50 million high-spending paying users globally consistently pay for Apple’s service ecosystem. This passive monetization model is largely insulated from hardware sales cycles and serves as Apple’s core resilience through economic downturns.

There’s no doubt Apple is a high-quality asset—but a good asset does not mean it’s suitable to buy and hold at any price. Realizing paper gains during periods of valuation bubbles is standard practice for disciplined value investors.

Third, the most practical advice for ordinary US equity investors: don’t mimic the trading moves of investment titans.

1. Opportunity costs are entirely asymmetrical

Major investors command capital on the scale of tens of billions, enabling them to endure over a decade of long-term dormancy and deploy diversified assets to hedge against volatility. In contrast, most individual investors face liquidity constraints tied to living expenses and cannot withstand multi-year sideways movements or drawdowns. The same holding strategy yields compound growth for major players but traps retail investors' capital.

2. Reducing holdings does not imply bearishness on the company

Duan Yongping and Buffett merely took profits, rebalanced their portfolios, and diversified risk—they did not fully exit Apple. Ordinary investors often oversimplify this as 'big players fleeing' or 'Apple topping out,' leading them to recklessly sell at a loss or blindly short the stock, which frequently results in poor judgment.

3. The cognitive gap cannot be bridged

Duan Yongping, deeply rooted in consumer electronics manufacturing, and Buffett, who has spent a lifetime mastering consumer business models, base every buy and sell decision on rigorous analysis of underlying business models, valuation, and cash flows. Most retail investors trade based on market sentiment or news headlines, creating an inherent information and cognitive divide.

Summary

Apple’s deep economic moat offers long-term investment appeal, but blindly piling into the stock at new highs is unwise. The seemingly simple approach of major investors—accumulating at lows and taking profits incrementally at highs—is underpinned by decades of industry insight, massive capital capacity, and exceptional holding discipline. When investing in U.S. equities, align your strategy with your own capital time horizon and risk tolerance; there’s no need to mimic top investors’ timing. Staying within your circle of competence matters far more than copying trades.

Risk Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis of industry logic and does not constitute any investment advice regarding U.S. equities.

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