Daily Options Income Strategy | SPCX Hits New All-Time Low, Approaching the $100 Mark; Market Cap Wiped Out by Over $1.2 Trillion—How to Navigate This 'Darkest Hour'?

1. Market Sentiment Indicator

The three major U.S. stock indices diverged in the previous trading session. $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ On Monday, the stock price hit an intraday low of $108.66, marking a new all-time low since its IPO. The market is now holding its breath ahead of two key 'stress tests': the company’s first earnings report as a public entity on August 4 and the expiration of the lock-up period on August 6. High implied volatility has created a premium window for options sellers.

2. Key Stocks to Watch

SPCX: Down 50% from its peak, with over $1 trillion wiped off its market cap—the darkest hour for the space giant

$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ The stock closed down 1.36% in the previous session at $113.50, hitting an intraday low of $108.66. From its intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, SPCX shares have declined approximately 50%.Its current market capitalization stands at roughly $1.49 trillion, down over $1.2 trillion from its peak.

Technically, SPCX is now in a clear breakdown of its trend.Since peaking in mid-June, the stock has undergone two waves of accelerated declines, closing higher on only 8 out of the past 30 trading days, with bearish momentum persistently dominating.

On the fundamental side, short-selling pressure and concerns over capital expenditures are the core factors currently weighing on SPCX.Over the past 24 hours, short interest tracking data shows that short positions in SPCX have continued to accumulate, compounded by market concerns over the company's massive capital expenditures—projects such as Starship testing and Starlink expansion continue to burn cash, causing investors to question SpaceX’s near-term profitability path. Economist Peter Schiff has publicly warned that buying into SpaceX at current levels is 'extremely dangerous.' Widely reported figures—such as the over $1.2 trillion wiped off the company’s market value and the stock price halving from its peak—have further amplified panic sentiment, triggering sustained capital outflows.

Starship’s 13th test flight succeeded, but was completely overshadowed by looming lock-up expiration concerns.On July 24, SpaceX successfully completed the 13th Starship test flight, deploying 20 Starlink Gen3 satellites and achieving key validation milestones including in-orbit engine restart and ocean splashdown, marking a significant step toward full reusability of the Starship system. In its latest research report, Morgan Stanley noted that this test flight significantly boosted market confidence, maintaining an 'Overweight' rating and a $300 price target. The firm also stated that if the 14th test flight achieves direct capture of the upper stage by the launch tower, it would serve as the next major catalyst for upward valuation re-rating.

However, the positive impact of this technical breakthrough on the stock price has been entirely overshadowed by the overhang of the upcoming lock-up expiration. Following the Q2 earnings release, insiders may sell up to 20% of their holdings starting from the second full trading day after the earnings announcement.

The market is currently pricing in an expectation gap regarding:SpaceX, as the undisputed leader in the space economy, retains its long-term technological moats—Starship, Starlink, and orbital data centers—without fundamental erosion. However, short sellers are betting on a near-term valuation bubble bursting, given the company's current market cap lacks commensurate earnings support (projected Q1 2026 net loss of $4.276 billion).

Key variables to monitor going forward include the post-market hours of August 4,Whether the Q2 earnings call can deliver better-than-expected updates on commercialization progress and guidance toward a profitability inflection point. If Q2 results continue to show massive losses and commercialization lags behind expectations, the short-selling thesis will strengthen, potentially driving the stock price further downward.

3. Options Premium Collection Strategy

1. Cash Secured Put

Sell 1 contract of $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ 260814 80P, estimated margin requirement (for reference only): $8,000 ($80 × 100)

Opportunity Rationale:

For investors who believe in SpaceX’s long-term commercial spaceflight and Starlink ecosystem value but have not yet established positions, the current share price—depressed by lock-up expiration fears—trades at approximately a 16% discount to the IPO price, approaching the psychologically important $100 level.

Buying shares outright carries the risk of significant price volatility following the lock-up expiration. By selling put options, investors can collect elevated option premiums in this high implied volatility environment if the stock stabilizes or gradually recovers post-lock-up. If sell-off pressure exceeds expectations and drives the stock lower, they may also acquire shares at highly attractive entry prices.

2. Covered Call

Hold 100 shares $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$, sell 1 contract of SPCX Aug 21, 2026 $180 call

Opportunity Rationale:

For investors already holding SPCX and facing significant unrealized losses, the stock price may continue to face limited upside potential in the short term due to selling pressure from a large-scale lock-up expiration on August 6. Investors who remain bullish on SpaceX's long-term value in commercial launches, Starlink, and its 'space + AI' ecosystem—but are concerned about heightened volatility around the lock-up expiration—could consider selling call options.

If the stock consolidates at current low levels, the premium income can gradually lower the holding cost; if subsequent selling pressure from the lock-up expiration is milder than expected or better-than-expected earnings drive a price recovery leading to assignment, this would effectively allow for an exit at a rebound price.

IV. Risk Management Advisory

Although seller strategies have a high win rate, investors must still implement proper risk management:

– Position management is everything.: The biggest risk for option sellers lies in black swan events. It is recommended that margin allocated to any single underlying should not exceed 20% of total capital. Never sell options beyond your capacity to absorb losses just for the sake of collecting higher premiums.

– Covered Call and Timely Rolling: When a covered call becomes deeply in-the-money (i.e., the stock price far exceeds the strike price), if you remain bullish on the underlying stock, you should decisively 'roll' the position—buy to close the current option and simultaneously sell a longer-dated call with a higher strike price—to avoid having your shares called away at an unattractive price.

– Cash-secured put options: Beware of 'left-tail risk': For cash-secured puts, if the stock price crashes due to fundamental deterioration (rather than a normal pullback), don’t hold on stubbornly. In such cases, exit with a stop-loss or roll the position down to buy time while waiting for volatility to normalize.

Make good use of the Options Seller Hub to understand income strategies for selling options and earnOption premiums！

Options Risk Disclosure

An option is a contract that gives the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date. Option prices are influenced by multiple factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of future volatility over the life of the option and is derived by back-solving from the Black-Scholes option pricing model. It is commonly viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate higher volatility, they may be willing to pay more for options to hedge their risk, leading to higher implied volatility. Traders and investors use implied volatility to assess the attractiveness of option prices, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer

This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, advice, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, there is no guarantee they will prevent losses. Market conditions may render such orders unexecutable. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet the required margin within the specified timeframe, your open positions may be liquidated. Nevertheless, you remain fully responsible for any resulting deficit in your account. Therefore, prior to trading options, you should thoroughly study and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading aligns with your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should become familiar with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully read 'Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options' before engaging in any options trading strategy.

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