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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump says US-Iran negotiation window is limited; Apple surpasses NVIDIA to reclaim global market cap crown; US stocks mixed as memory and optical communication sectors under pressure (July 28, 2026)

I. Key Headlines Federal Reserve Updates

Trump pressures for rate cuts as Citadel Securities warns of unexpected hike

Trump praised Fed Chair Waller as outstanding but argued rates should be cut further, stating the US should have the world's lowest interest rates and that costs are falling rapidly.

Citadel Securities expects a surprise 25-basis-point rate hike this week to reinforce anti-inflation credibility and end overreliance on forward guidance.

Morgan Stanley data shows investors have increased long dollar positions ahead of the FOMC meeting. Market impact: Concurrent dovish calls from Trump and hawkish hike warnings heighten uncertainty over the policy path, providing short-term support for the dollar while pressuring risk asset valuations.

Temporary pause in US-Iran tensions drives significant oil price pullback

Trump decided to suspend strikes on Iran to allow time for negotiations, while stressing that strong military action would resume if diplomacy fails—the window is 'running out.'

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has arrived in the United States and is scheduled to meet with Trump on the 28th, intending to present intelligence indicating Iran continues to advance its nuclear facilities and missile reconstruction. Market impact: Geopolitical de-escalation expectations have quickly absorbed prior risk premiums,Crude oilA sharp pullback has eased inflation concerns, but risks of negotiation breakdown remain, keeping market sentiment sensitive.

Tariff impacts are limited, and an AI regulatory framework is imminent,CMELaunch single-stock futures

The U.S. Trade Representative stated that the new Section 301 tariffs will not impose additional economic shocks beyond the current scope, covering the vast majority of imports.

The Trump administration is nearing finalization of a voluntary AI oversight framework, requiring developers to submit frontier models to the government before release, with August 1 as the deadline.

CME has launched cash-settled single-stock futures and micro contracts on 55 U.S. equities, supporting 23-hour trading (including SpaceX, Micron, etc.). Market impact: Policy implementation reduces trade-related uncertainty; the AI regulatory framework may affect model release timelines; extended trading hours for single-stock futures expand leveraged trading opportunities.

SpotGoldApprox. USD 4,052 per ounce, -0.61%

SpotSilverApprox. USD 57.2 per ounce, -2.04%

WTI Crude OilApprox. USD 81.6 per barrel, -1.15%

Brent crudeApprox. USD 81.35 per barrel, +0.78%

US Dollar Index (DXY): Around 101.47 points, down 0.05%

Driver Analysis: Expectations of a pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities and renewed negotiations rapidly reduced the risk premium on crude oil, sending both WTI and Brent sharply lower, easing inflation concerns and supporting risk assets. Gold and silver saw modest pullbacks amid falling oil prices and a relatively firm U.S. dollar, as safe-haven demand cooled slightly. The market linkage is clear: geopolitical de-escalation → lower oil prices → subdued inflation expectations → increased discussion around Federal Reserve policy flexibility. However, Trump’s comment that the 'window is limited' keeps markets cautious, and near-term commodity volatility will continue to hinge on negotiation developments.

BTC: Approximately $63,232, down 2.82%

ETH: Approximately $1,875, down 3.34%

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization: Approximately $2.27 trillion, down 1.5%

Market liquidation situation: Total 24-hour liquidations amounted to approximately $677 million, with long-position liquidations totaling about $533 million

Bitget BTC/USDTLiquidation Map: Near the current price ($63,162), both long and short liquidation pressures are relatively low. However, the $64,400–$66,500 range contains a significant concentration of highly leveraged short liquidation triggers. If prices continue to rise, this could trigger cascading short-covering, further amplifying upward momentum. Cumulative long liquidation leverage below current levels is notably smaller than short-side exposure above (approximately $190 million vs. $620 million), indicating that short positions carry more concentrated risk. Thus, the potential for volatility and short squeeze is higher on an upside breakout than on a downside move in the near term.

Spot ETF net inflows/outflows: Recent flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have been mixed, with a single-day net outflow of $240 million last Friday and a 24-hour dynamic net outflow of $2.8 million as of now.

Driver Analysis: Falling oil prices and geopolitical de-escalation have boosted risk appetite, stabilizing the broader crypto market. Ethereum has shown relative strength, signaling capital rotation into higher-beta assets. Liquidations have been dominated by short positions, reflecting short-covering support for prices. ETF fund flows remain volatile, indicating continued institutional caution. On the macro front, the upcoming FOMC meeting and Trump’s calls for rate cuts are creating a tug-of-war. Technically, Bitcoin is holding key support levels, suggesting a mildly bullish bias within a near-term trading range. Market participants will closely monitor negotiation progress and FOMC outcomes for their impact on liquidity.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 52,210 points (+0.51%), boosted by falling oil prices lifting blue chips

S&P 500: Closed at 7,413 points (+0.02%), barely ending a streak of consecutive declines

Nasdaq: Closed at 24,932 points (-0.18%), notably dragged down by semiconductors

NVDA: Approximately $196.5, down 4.99%

AAPL: Approximately $336.9, up 1.17%

MSFT: Approximately $389, up 1.94%

GOOGL: Approximately $326.6, up 2.13%

AMZN: Approximately $231.4, down 0.31%

META: Approximately $593.9, down 0.22%

TSLA: Approximately USD 309.2, down 1.22%

Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: The tech sector showed significant internal divergence. Apple reclaimed the title of the world’s most valuable company from NVIDIA, surpassing it in market cap thanks to its solid performance, while Microsoft and Google also strengthened simultaneously; NVIDIA, however, plunged sharply due to concerns over AI infrastructure costs and competitive pressures, dragging down the Nasdaq.Shopify、PalantirAI application software (e.g., ) continued to outperform, reflecting the market’s preference for monetizable use cases over pure hardware narratives. The overall trend was supported by easing oil prices, yet semiconductors and memory stocks faced pressure, signaling a reassessment of capital expenditure and supply-demand dynamics. Stock-specific drivers varied significantly, warranting nuanced analysis rather than broad generalizations.

Storage conceptplunged sharply

Notable stocks: SanDisk fell more than 11%, SK Hynix dropped over 7%, and Western Digital and Seagate Technology each declined over 4%.

Drivers: Cooling expectations for memory demand and pricing, compounded by broad-based chip selloff sentiment.

AI Application Softwarecontinued to strengthen

Notable gainers: Shopify rose over 11%, Palantir gained 7%,ServiceNowwithAdobeand others rose over 5%

Drivers: Investors favored companies demonstrating strong software execution capabilities and earnings visibility.

Optical Communicationsled the decline

Representative stocks:Lumentumfell nearly 7%,Coherentdropped nearly 4%

Drivers: The segment followed the broader tech selloff, with concerns over capital expenditure spreading.

Event summary: Shopify rose 11.54% to close at USD 126.88, emerging as the standout performer in the tech sector for the day. AI application software stocks broadly strengthened, with Shopify advancing alongside Palantir, ServiceNow, and Adobe, in sharp contrast to the underperformance of semiconductor and memory sectors.Market Analysis: Capital is rotating away from the hardware narrative—characterized by high AI infrastructure investment and uncertain returns—toward software and platforms that already demonstrate commercial adoption and clearer earnings visibility. As a leader in e-commerce infrastructure, Shopify benefits from rising demand for enterprise digitalization and integration of AI tools into business workflows. The market is assigning it a significantly higher premium for growth certainty compared to pure-play compute-related names. This rotation reflects investor preference for cash flow realization amid elevated valuations.Investment InsightSoftware application layers are receiving short-term valuation premiums, but investors should remain cautious about earnings verification pressure at current high valuations. Attention should focus on whether order growth and profitability can meet prevailing expectations.

Event summary: SanDisk tumbled 11.02% to USD 1278.23, leading losses in the memory storage segment. Western Digital and Seagate Technology also posted significant pullbacks, while SK Hynix ADRs dropped more than 7%, weighing heavily on the entire memory sector.Market Analysis: After rallying sharply in the first half of the year on expectations of AI server demand, memory stocks have entered a clear phase of profit-taking and expectation adjustment. Investors are now questioning whether AI-driven memory demand can support the previously inflated prices and valuations in the near term, fueling expectations of supply-demand rebalancing. This contrasts sharply with the strength in software stocks, indicating capital is retreating from 'long-dated demand narratives' toward more cautious valuations.Investment InsightMemory cycles are experiencing heightened volatility, with sentiment dominating in the short term. Investors should closely monitor inventory levels, pricing trends, and capital expenditure guidance from major clients, avoiding blind bets on linear AI-driven demand growth.

Event summary: Palantir closed up 7% at USD 131.53, joining Shopify in driving strength across the AI application software sector.Market AnalysisCommercial and government-side AI deployment progress has gained recognition from capital markets, with investors now more willing to pay a premium for 'deployed AI solutions' rather than those still focused on compute infrastructure build-out. Palantir’s clear commercialization path and contract visibility have allowed it to stand out amid the recent chip sector pullback, highlighting a pronounced divergence between software and hardware.Investment InsightThe monetization thesis for AI software has strengthened, though valuations remain elevated; continued monitoring of large-client order conversion and margin improvement is warranted.

Event summaryAMD fell 5.17% to $494.95, dragging down the semiconductor sector alongside NVIDIA and weighing on the Nasdaq.Market AnalysisUncertainty around the return timeline on AI infrastructure capital expenditures is being repriced, tempering market optimism about the pace of future capex growth by hyperscale tech firms. As a key player in GPUs and data center chips, AMD has been directly impacted by this shift in sentiment. The internal sector divergence—hardware under pressure while software strengthens—has become even more pronounced.Investment InsightThe long-term thesis for AI compute demand remains intact, but near-term valuations and spending cadence require more rigorous validation; volatility is likely to remain higher than that of software application names.

Event summaryLumentum dropped approximately 6.7%–7%, dragging down the broader optical communications sector, with Coherent also falling over 4%.Market AnalysisDemand for optical modules and high-speed interconnects is highly dependent on AI data center capital spending. When market confidence in the pace of AI infrastructure investment wavers, optical communications—as a sensitive upstream segment—comes under immediate pressure. The sector’s performance has resonated with trends in memory and chips, signaling that the entire AI hardware chain has entered an expectation-revision phase.Investment Insight: The sector is highly correlated with AI infrastructure, and short-term price action is clearly driven by sentiment. Investors should monitor the visibility of future capital expenditure guidance from cloud providers and equipment vendors.

Event summaryApple’s market capitalization rose to approximately $4.95 trillion, surpassing NVIDIA’s $4.77 trillion, reclaiming the title of the world’s most valuable company for the first time since April 2025. Its shares gained about 1.17% to $336.91 ahead of its earnings release this week.Market AnalysisAmid heightened volatility in the AI narrative, investors are once again assigning higher premiums to companies with robust cash flows and consistently growing services businesses. The market-cap switch between Apple and NVIDIA fundamentally reflects a rebalancing from ‘high growth but high uncertainty’ toward ‘certainty and earnings quality.’Investment Insight: This market-cap rotation reflects a phase-driven shift in risk appetite, and Apple’s upcoming earnings report will serve as a critical test of resilience in consumer electronics and services growth.

Event summaryNVIDIA fell approximately 4.99% to $196.51, with its market capitalization shrinking to about $4.77 trillion, as the AI chip sector broadly weakened.Market AnalysisInvestors are raising more questions about the payback period of large-scale capital expenditures, competitive dynamics, and the sustainability of client spending. The previously highly priced narrative of a 'long-term boom in AI infrastructure' is undergoing a cyclical correction. This contrasts sharply with Apple overtaking it in market cap, reflecting investors’ preference for assets with greater certainty.Investment Insight: The long-term AI demand thesis remains intact, but valuations and spending timelines are now under more rigorous scrutiny, likely resulting in above-average short-term volatility.

Event summaryASML dropped about 5.8%, tracking the broader weakness in semiconductor equipment and chip stocks.Market AnalysisAs a key supplier of advanced lithography systems, ASML’s order visibility is closely tied to its clients’ capital expenditure plans. When markets grow skeptical about the pace of AI-related capex growth, equipment makers often reflect this shift in sentiment first. Its price action has moved in tandem with AMD and NVIDIA, reinforcing signals of broad-based pressure across the hardware supply chain.Investment InsightLong-term support remains from ongoing process-node advancements and demand for leading-edge technologies, but in the near term, the stock is heavily influenced by sentiment in the tech sector and expectations around capital spending. Close monitoring of guidance from major clients is essential.

1、ARKAccording to data from Invest.com, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest bought 124,543 shares of SpaceX on Monday,SPCXworth approximately $14.14 million; and purchased 27,864 shares ofTeslaTesla (TSLA), valued at around $8.62 million.

2. Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at this week’s meeting—an unexpected move that would bolster Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s credibility in fighting inflation. In a report, Frank Flight, the firm’s head of macro strategy, wrote that a 25-basis-point rate hike announced Wednesday would reinforce Warsh’s repeated commitment to restoring price stability and signal that policymakers are no longer relying on forward guidance to telegraph policy moves. 'Markets may once again be underestimating the extent of the Fed’s hawkish pivot,' Flight said. 'A rate hike this week would definitively mark the end of the era of forward guidance and underscore the Fed’s independence.' He added that acting this week, rather than waiting until September, would have a greater impact by reshaping market expectations about how the Fed responds to inflation.

3. SK Hynix’s (SKHY.O) American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) hit a record low since listing on Monday. The stock had debuted earlier this month in a USD 26.5 billion offering, but has since declined sharply as investors continue to exit high-valuation semiconductor names. During Monday’s session, it plunged as much as 10% to USD 139.01—well below its USD 149 IPO price—before closing at USD 143.02.

4. According to research data released by Grayscale, based on asset market value weighting,HYPEETF inflows are accelerating, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), andSOLandXRPGrayscale noted that Bitcoin saw the most consistently steady inflows, Ethereum experienced sharp peaks, Solana and XRP showed healthy inflows in their early stages, and HYPE demonstrated stronger launch performance than Bitcoin, Solana, and XRP at the same point in their lifecycle.

5. Since peaking at USD 225.64 in June, SpaceX has lost over USD 1.2 trillion in market value—nearly equivalent to the market cap of Tesla, another company founded by Elon Musk. On Monday, SpaceX declined for the 13th time in the past 16 trading days, closing at USD 113.50, down more than 1%. In options markets, retail investors continue to buy deeply out-of-the-money call options, betting on a rapid rebound. SpaceX will release its first earnings report next week, and lock-up restrictions on approximately 911.5 million insider shares—about 20% of total outstanding shares—will begin expiring starting August 6. Traders believe the expiration may not be as disruptive as feared, but it is unlikely to provide any support to the share price.

6. On Monday local time, Apple overtook NVIDIA to reclaim the title of the world’s most valuable company for the first time since April 2025. NVIDIA’s stock dropped nearly 5% on the day, pushing its market cap down to USD 4.77 trillion, as investors voiced concerns over the massive costs associated with AI infrastructure build-outs, dragging down the entire AI chip sector. Meanwhile, Apple rose 1%, reaching a market cap of USD 4.95 trillion ahead of its highly anticipated earnings report scheduled for Thursday after market close. NVIDIA had held the top spot since taking it from Microsoft in June 2025, briefly touching a USD 5 trillion valuation last October. So far in 2026, NVIDIA’s stock is up just 4%, while Apple has gained 24%. Apple’s outperformance stems from its cautious approach to AI-related capital expenditures, preferring to lease computing power rather than build its own infrastructure—a strategy well received by investors.

7. Bitcoin held steady near USD 65,000 on Monday, having risen about 4% over the past few days, while Ethereum hit a nearly two-month high. Meanwhile, AI-related tech stocks came under pressure. Analysts say this week’s Fed policy decision, inflation data, and earnings reports from major tech firms will determine whether Bitcoin breaks out of its months-long trading range or retreats toward June lows.

Market strategists at LMAX Group noted that the resilience of the crypto market during periods of volatility in traditional markets is encouraging, supporting the view that digital assets are beginning to decouple from traditional risk assets. Technically, Bitcoin needs to break above $67,300 to exit the consolidation range it has been in since June, while Ethereum faces key resistance at $2,000. Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine, pointed out that the ETH/BTC ratio has risen to a three-month high, signaling bullish sentiment. However, a senior research analyst at Nansen believes the recent rebound lacks strong buying support, citing declining Bitcoin futures open interest and order book data indicating net selling pressure. They still expect a potential pullback to the $52,000–$58,000 range unless market conditions improve. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and core PCE data will be key catalysts this week.

This Wednesday

United States

Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision meeting

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Pre-market / After-hours

United States

Earnings reports from Corning, Coca-Cola, etc.

⭐⭐⭐⭐

July 28 (Tuesday)

U.S. releases weekly data through July 11ADPChange in nonfarm payrolls

Boeing, Corning, and Coca-Cola to release earnings before the market opens

★★★ Bloom Energy, KLA Corp, Seagate Technology,Visa,to release earnings after market close (watch for AI/storage and payment demand)

July 29 (Wednesday)

★★★★★ Microsoft and Meta to release earnings after market close (market focus: ROI on AI capex, cloud revenue growth, and ad recovery)

★★★★ Qualcomm, Arm,RobinhoodAfter-hours earnings release

★★★★★ SK Hynix reports Q2 earnings (key validation point for AI memory/HBM)

July 30 (Thursday)

★★★★★ The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision; markets expect no change. Chair Powell holds a press conference afterward—watch for guidance on future rate path and potential for a September rate hike restart; current inflation pressures coexist with tariff-related uncertainty

★★★★★ US releases June core PCE price index, Q2 preliminary annualized real GDP growth rate, and weekly initial jobless claims

★★★★★ Apple and Amazon release earnings reports, testing the commercial viability of AI

★★★★ Samsung Electronics releases full Q2 earnings report (memory and AI chips)

★★★ Coinbase and Strategy release earnings reports after market close

Friday, July 31

★★★★ Kioxia releases earnings report (concluding results from Japan and Korea's memory trio)

US releases July Chicago PMI and final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

*This week, core themes in U.S. equities revolve around signals from the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, tariff uncertainty, PCE inflation data, and earnings reports from AI heavyweights such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon—likely fueling heightened market volatility.

Analysts broadly agree that the temporary halt in U.S.-Iran strikes has driven a sharp decline in oil prices, significantly easing inflation concerns and providing breathing room for risk assets, benefiting the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, firms like Citadel Securities caution that the Fed could deliver a surprise rate hike this week, warning that markets may be underestimating the risk of a hawkish pivot. Tech stocks are showing increased divergence: Apple’s market cap overtaking others reflects rising investor preference for certainty, while NVIDIA’s pullback highlights concerns over the return on AI-related capital expenditures. The crypto market stabilized amid easing oil prices, with Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin—a sign of sector rotation—though volatile ETF flows and the approaching FOMC meeting warrant near-term caution. The overall consensus is that geopolitical de-escalation supports short-term sentiment, but policy shifts and negotiation uncertainties will dominate market volatility.

Disclaimer: The content above has been compiled by AI search, with human verification for publishing purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice. Data mentioned in the text may inevitably contain biases; please refer to real-time market data for accuracy.

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