Bull Bull Technical Intelligence | Intel earnings announcement is imminent—how should we interpret this make-or-break moment for bulls and bears?

$Intel (INTC.US)$ will be released after market hours onJuly 23.Multiple recent developments have pushed the stock’s pre-earnings movement to a critical juncture.

First is a substantive breakthrough in its foundry business. On July 21,Intel announced a partnership with cybersecurity giant Fortinet,to co-develop Fortinet’s Secure Processor 6 (SP6), marking the first publicly disclosed external customer for Intel’s Intel 4 process node and the most significant business win since CEO Lip-Bu Tan took office.

Next isWorkforce reductions in the Data Center Group.Investors interpreted this as a positive signal that management is proactively focusing on core strengths and reducing operating costs. It is reported that Intel has cut approximately 50,000 positions over the past four years.

Morgan Stanley explicitly stated before Intel's earnings release that its outlook is better than expected; KeyBanc expressed strong support for Intel, believing that the recovery in its server CPU business will be a highlight of Q2 results; RBC also noted that robust server CPU performance will support Intel’s overall revenue.

Intel’s earnings results will directly determine whether the current technical rebound can gain fundamental validation. Below, we analyze the current price structure and key levels from a technical perspective.

Recent stock price movement

The current share price ($105.45) remains below both the 20-day moving average (MA20 at $115.87) and the 50-day moving average (MA50 at $116.86). These two medium-term moving averages are tightly clustered, forming a dual resistance zone against any upward rebound. From the moving average configuration,a bearish alignment is in place, and sustained buying pressure will be needed in the short term to break through this moving average resistance. The stock remains within a downtrend channel overall, and technical conditions for a trend reversal are not yet evident.

Looking at the past 10 days, Intel has traced a complete bottoming-and-recovery path: plunging sharply from a high of $112.54 to a low of $95.04, then posting a high-volume bullish candle on July 21 to rebound to $105.45, forming the early shape of a short-term V-shaped recovery. The small bearish candle on July 20 was entirely engulfed by the bullish candle of July 17, followed by a strong bullish breakout on July 21 with increased volume, confirming the pattern.

However, the current rebound still appears relatively weak: Although a large bullish candle appeared on July 21, the four consecutive bearish candles from July 13 to 16 had already confirmed bearish dominance in the prior decline, and it remains to be seen whether the rebound can be sustained.

Key Technical Indicator Analysis

Moving Averages (MA):MA20 = $115.87, MA50 = $116.86; the two moving averages are closely aligned; price is below both moving averages, confirming a bearish alignment, with the MAs imposing dual resistance on any rebound

RSI:The current reading is 45.31, which lies in the neutral range, showing no clear divergence signal

MACD:The MACD line (-5.11) is below the Signal line (-2.68), confirming a bearish crossover, with momentum in a weakening zone. Given the recent sharp price decline followed by a rebound, if the MACD histogram’s negative values begin to narrow (i.e., absolute value decreases), this could be observed as a marginal weakening of bearish momentum. However, the bearish crossover structure has not yet been resolved.

Bollinger Bands:The stock price is trading between the Bollinger Bands’ middle band ($115.87) and lower band ($88.60). The Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating elevated recent volatility, with the price still moving within a wide-ranging consolidation zone and not yet forming a directional coiling structure following band contraction.

Comprehensive assessment

The key pivot level between bullish and bearish sentiment centers around $101.22,which was the breakout point of the strong bullish candle on July 21 and currently serves as immediate support for the ongoing rebound. A break below this level would imply that yesterday’s bullish momentum failed to sustain, casting doubt on the validity of the rebound,at which point caution is warranted regarding the risk of retesting the $95.04 low;if the $95.04 level is breached again, the recently formed bottoming structure would be invalidated,making the vicinity of the Bollinger Band’s lower band ($88.60) the next level of focus.

Upside resistance levels are clearly defined.The first immediate resistance lies at $106.34 (the high of the upper shadow on July 21),and whether the price can decisively break above and hold above this level will determine if the short-term rebound can continue.Extending toward the $110.49 area (the July 8 high and the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range).Stronger resistance is concentrated in the$115.87 to $116.86 range,where the 20-day and 50-day moving averages converge densely—this is the key threshold for determining whether the medium-term trend can reverse direction.

Overall, the current share price is in a short-term equilibrium zonebetween the $101.22 support level and the $106.34 resistance level; significant price volatility is expected following the earnings release,with a directional breakout imminent.

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