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COIN and MSTR have released their earnings reports—when will their stock prices rebound?
富途Crypto Sir
joined discussion · Jul 22 18:23 ·

Trump signs the 'crypto regulatory green light'! Bitcoin briefly surged above $66,000—what’s next?

July 21, 2026, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ price surged past the key psychological level of $66,000, rising more than 13% from the early July low of $57,800. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency-related stocks $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ and other U.S.-listed crypto-related stocks posted significant gains.
July 21, 2026, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin’s price strongly broke through the $66,000 psychological level, rising over 13% from the early July low of $57,800. Meanwhile, U.S. crypto-related stocks such as $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ posted significant gains in the U.S. crypto-themed equity sector. After nearly two months of range-bound consolidation, this breakout is not an isolated technical rebound, but rather the result of a confluence of three factors: policy expectations, capital flows, and on-chain structural data. 1. Improved regulatory expectations serve as the key catalyst The immediate driver of this rally is Trump reaching an agreement with the White House on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act.For several months prior, the provision restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto-related activities had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division of responsibilities between the CFTC and the SEC. A clearer regulatory framework would help reduce compliance uncertainty and boost institutional investors’ willingness to allocate capital. It should be noted that the CLARITY Act is currently still in the 'clearing obstacles' phase and has not yet been enacted into law.The revised bill must be voted on by the Senate by the first week of August; if passed, it will then return to the House for further consideration before being sent to the President for signature. In addition to regulation...
Following nearly two months of range-bound trading, this breakout is not an isolated technical rebound, but rather the result of a confluence of three factors: policy expectations, capital flows, and on-chain structural data.
1. Improved regulatory expectations serve as the key catalyst
The immediate driver of this rally was Trump reaching an agreement with the White House on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act.For several months prior, the provision restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto-related activities had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote.
The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division between the CFTC and the SEC. A clearer regulatory framework would help reduce compliance uncertainty and enhance institutional investors' willingness to allocate capital.
It should be noted that the CLARITY Act is currently still in the 'clearing procedural hurdles' stage and has not yet been enacted into law.The revised bill must be voted on by the Senate before the first week of August; if passed, it will need to return to the House for further consideration before being sent to the President for signature.
In addition to improved regulatory expectations, continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided strong buying support for prices.According to sosovalue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $727 million—the longest streak of continuous inflows since early May.Expectations of regulatory clarity and ETF fund inflows together form dual support for the recent rebound.
July 21, 2026, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin’s price strongly broke through the $66,000 psychological level, rising over 13% from the early July low of $57,800. Meanwhile, U.S. crypto-related stocks such as $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ posted significant gains in the U.S. crypto-themed equity sector. After nearly two months of range-bound consolidation, this breakout is not an isolated technical rebound, but rather the result of a confluence of three factors: policy expectations, capital flows, and on-chain structural data. 1. Improved regulatory expectations serve as the key catalyst The immediate driver of this rally is Trump reaching an agreement with the White House on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act.For several months prior, the provision restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto-related activities had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division of responsibilities between the CFTC and the SEC. A clearer regulatory framework would help reduce compliance uncertainty and boost institutional investors’ willingness to allocate capital. It should be noted that the CLARITY Act is currently still in the 'clearing obstacles' phase and has not yet been enacted into law.The revised bill must be voted on by the Senate by the first week of August; if passed, it will then return to the House for further consideration before being sent to the President for signature. In addition to regulation...
On the technical side, short-covering in the near term and Bitcoin’s historically strong seasonal pattern in July have also provided upward momentum.Before Bitcoin hit its recent low in mid-July, the market had accumulated a significant amount of short positions. However, when the price found solid support near $58,000 and began to rebound, a wave of short-covering was quickly triggered. This mechanism generated a notable buying impulse in the short term. According to Coinglass data, over $150 million in short positions were liquidated across the entire market within the past 24 hours as of this writing.
From a calendar-effect perspective, Bitcoin has historically exhibited a notably strong seasonal performance in July.According to Coinglass data, looking back at the 13 years from 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin’s median monthly return in July is approximately +8%, with positive returns occurring in nearly 70% of those months.
July 21, 2026, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin’s price strongly broke through the $66,000 psychological level, rising over 13% from the early July low of $57,800. Meanwhile, U.S. crypto-related stocks such as $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ posted significant gains in the U.S. crypto-themed equity sector. After nearly two months of range-bound consolidation, this breakout is not an isolated technical rebound, but rather the result of a confluence of three factors: policy expectations, capital flows, and on-chain structural data. 1. Improved regulatory expectations serve as the key catalyst The immediate driver of this rally is Trump reaching an agreement with the White House on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act.For several months prior, the provision restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto-related activities had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division of responsibilities between the CFTC and the SEC. A clearer regulatory framework would help reduce compliance uncertainty and boost institutional investors’ willingness to allocate capital. It should be noted that the CLARITY Act is currently still in the 'clearing obstacles' phase and has not yet been enacted into law.The revised bill must be voted on by the Senate by the first week of August; if passed, it will then return to the House for further consideration before being sent to the President for signature. In addition to regulation...
II. On-chain Data: The MVRV Indicator Points to Historical Bottom Territory
From an on-chain valuation perspective, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s MVRV percentile has dropped to approximately 5%, meaning this indicator has been higher than the current level about 95% of the time historically.This reading typically corresponds to long-term bottom zones, suggesting that the current price is significantly undervalued relative to its historical valuation distribution. It should be emphasized that undervaluation does not guarantee a short-term price rally, but it does offer meaningful insight into the medium- to long-term risk-reward profile.
July 21, 2026, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin’s price strongly broke through the $66,000 psychological level, rising over 13% from the early July low of $57,800. Meanwhile, U.S. crypto-related stocks such as $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ posted significant gains in the U.S. crypto-themed equity sector. After nearly two months of range-bound consolidation, this breakout is not an isolated technical rebound, but rather the result of a confluence of three factors: policy expectations, capital flows, and on-chain structural data. 1. Improved regulatory expectations serve as the key catalyst The immediate driver of this rally is Trump reaching an agreement with the White House on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act.For several months prior, the provision restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto-related activities had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division of responsibilities between the CFTC and the SEC. A clearer regulatory framework would help reduce compliance uncertainty and boost institutional investors’ willingness to allocate capital. It should be noted that the CLARITY Act is currently still in the 'clearing obstacles' phase and has not yet been enacted into law.The revised bill must be voted on by the Senate by the first week of August; if passed, it will then return to the House for further consideration before being sent to the President for signature. In addition to regulation...
Regarding coin distribution, analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin has established a critical support zone between $59,000 and $70,000—one of the most densely defended price ranges in Bitcoin’s history. More notably, 50% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply has already changed hands above $59,000; this percentage would be even higher if the several million BTC widely considered permanently lost were excluded.This is also a key reason why the market views the late-June low near $59,000 as a structurally significant reference level.
July 21, 2026, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin’s price strongly broke through the $66,000 psychological level, rising over 13% from the early July low of $57,800. Meanwhile, U.S. crypto-related stocks such as $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ posted significant gains in the U.S. crypto-themed equity sector. After nearly two months of range-bound consolidation, this breakout is not an isolated technical rebound, but rather the result of a confluence of three factors: policy expectations, capital flows, and on-chain structural data. 1. Improved regulatory expectations serve as the key catalyst The immediate driver of this rally is Trump reaching an agreement with the White House on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act.For several months prior, the provision restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto-related activities had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division of responsibilities between the CFTC and the SEC. A clearer regulatory framework would help reduce compliance uncertainty and boost institutional investors’ willingness to allocate capital. It should be noted that the CLARITY Act is currently still in the 'clearing obstacles' phase and has not yet been enacted into law.The revised bill must be voted on by the Senate by the first week of August; if passed, it will then return to the House for further consideration before being sent to the President for signature. In addition to regulation...
Crypto market analyst gaah cited CryptoQuant data, stating, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ The share of supply held by long-term holders (LTH) versus short-term holders (STH) has reached a 30-month high. The analysis notes that such extreme highs in this metric typically occur not at euphoric market tops, but during re-accumulation phases. Currently, with Bitcoin trading roughly 50% below its previous all-time high, long-term holders continue to absorb coins from the circulating supply.
July 21, 2026, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin’s price strongly broke through the $66,000 psychological level, rising over 13% from the early July low of $57,800. Meanwhile, U.S. crypto-related stocks such as $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ posted significant gains in the U.S. crypto-themed equity sector. After nearly two months of range-bound consolidation, this breakout is not an isolated technical rebound, but rather the result of a confluence of three factors: policy expectations, capital flows, and on-chain structural data. 1. Improved regulatory expectations serve as the key catalyst The immediate driver of this rally is Trump reaching an agreement with the White House on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act.For several months prior, the provision restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto-related activities had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division of responsibilities between the CFTC and the SEC. A clearer regulatory framework would help reduce compliance uncertainty and boost institutional investors’ willingness to allocate capital. It should be noted that the CLARITY Act is currently still in the 'clearing obstacles' phase and has not yet been enacted into law.The revised bill must be voted on by the Senate by the first week of August; if passed, it will then return to the House for further consideration before being sent to the President for signature. In addition to regulation...
III. Institutional and Market Outlook: Short-Term Sentiment Improves, but Macro Factors and Liquidity Remain Key for the Long Term
As prices rebound, market sentiment toward Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory has improved.
Renowned crypto trader Doctor Profit recently stated,The market widely expects Bitcoin to bottom out between September and October, following its typical four-year cycle; however, such a high degree of consensus on timing and price itself may act as a contrarian signal. A traditional 'calendar-based bottom' may not materialize as expected, and the probability of Bitcoin falling below $50,000 is relatively low.
In June, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research stated that Bitcoin may have already formed a cycle bottom at around $59,000 and believes the current 'crypto winter' has ended.Kendrick attributed the previous market decline to outflows from spot ETFs, reduced purchasing power from digital asset treasury firms like Strategy, and investor capital rotating into AI-related assets. Standard Chartered maintains its target of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026.
On July 1, Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000,primarily due to continued outflows from spot ETFs, stalled progress on U.S. crypto legislation, and weakening investor demand.
On July 14, Wintermute released a market analysis stating thatdespite multiple geopolitical shocks—including U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—Bitcoin held firmly above the key support level of $62,000, demonstrating notable market resilience.Additionally, the market reacted indifferently to Strategy’s recent Bitcoin sales, in stark contrast to two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns over potential selling pressure have significantly diminished.Currently, Bitcoin is exhibiting classic bottoming characteristics—failing to decline despite negative news—but the market still awaits further confirmation.
IV. Options Signals for Crypto-Related Equities
Accompanied by $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ price gains, most stocks rose on the previous trading day, $Crypto (LIST20010.US)$ with $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ surging nearly 10%, $Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ rising over 7%, $Circle (CRCL.US)$ climbing over 8%, $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ Increased over 4%, $Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ and gaining nearly 4%; $Crypto Mining (LIST23921.US)$ also mostly advanced, with $Cipher Digital (CIFR.US)$ jumping over 11%, $IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ and rising nearly 3%, $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ Up nearly 5%.
July 21, 2026, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin’s price strongly broke through the $66,000 psychological level, rising over 13% from the early July low of $57,800. Meanwhile, U.S. crypto-related stocks such as $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ posted significant gains in the U.S. crypto-themed equity sector. After nearly two months of range-bound consolidation, this breakout is not an isolated technical rebound, but rather the result of a confluence of three factors: policy expectations, capital flows, and on-chain structural data. 1. Improved regulatory expectations serve as the key catalyst The immediate driver of this rally is Trump reaching an agreement with the White House on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act.For several months prior, the provision restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto-related activities had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division of responsibilities between the CFTC and the SEC. A clearer regulatory framework would help reduce compliance uncertainty and boost institutional investors’ willingness to allocate capital. It should be noted that the CLARITY Act is currently still in the 'clearing obstacles' phase and has not yet been enacted into law.The revised bill must be voted on by the Senate by the first week of August; if passed, it will then return to the House for further consideration before being sent to the President for signature. In addition to regulation...
Taking $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ as an example, the put/call open interest ratio in its options market has recently shown a significant decline.
July 21, 2026, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin’s price strongly broke through the $66,000 psychological level, rising over 13% from the early July low of $57,800. Meanwhile, U.S. crypto-related stocks such as $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ posted significant gains in the U.S. crypto-themed equity sector. After nearly two months of range-bound consolidation, this breakout is not an isolated technical rebound, but rather the result of a confluence of three factors: policy expectations, capital flows, and on-chain structural data. 1. Improved regulatory expectations serve as the key catalyst The immediate driver of this rally is Trump reaching an agreement with the White House on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act.For several months prior, the provision restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto-related activities had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division of responsibilities between the CFTC and the SEC. A clearer regulatory framework would help reduce compliance uncertainty and boost institutional investors’ willingness to allocate capital. It should be noted that the CLARITY Act is currently still in the 'clearing obstacles' phase and has not yet been enacted into law.The revised bill must be voted on by the Senate by the first week of August; if passed, it will then return to the House for further consideration before being sent to the President for signature. In addition to regulation...
This indicator shift sends a clear signal: market participants’ hedging demand against downside risk in crypto-related stock COIN is rapidly diminishing, while willingness to position for upside moves is simultaneously rebounding.However, it should be noted that this options signal applies only to $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ ， $Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ . Although its options trading structure shows bullish dominance, the put/call open interest ratio continues to rise slightly. Given differing fundamentals among crypto-related stocks, analysis should be conducted on a case-by-case basis.
Moreover, options signals are both leading and volatile;if the final legislative text falls short of expectations or the legislative process encounters further delays, these related stocks could experience larger corrections than spot Bitcoin. Therefore, options structures are better used as indicators for observing shifts in sentiment and positioning, rather than as a sole basis for trading decisions.
Outlook and Key Monitoring Variables
Overall, the current rally is jointly driven by improved regulatory expectations, ETF fund inflows, on-chain valuation recovery, and short-covering in derivatives markets. In nature, it more closely resembles an ‘expectation-driven corrective rebound’ and is not yet sufficient to confirm a definitive reversal of the one-sided trend.
Three key variables warrant close monitoring going forward:
First, the actual pace at which legislative progress is implemented. The final voting and signing timeline of the CLARITY Act will represent the most critical policy observation window in Q3. If the legislation passes smoothly, its psychological boost to institutional capital inflows will far outweigh any short-term price reaction.
Second, whether net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs can be sustained.Unlike one-off policy-driven impulses, daily ETF inflows represent a trend-driven force.
Third, the degree of alignment with the macroeconomic environment.The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path and fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields will continue to influence cryptocurrency allocation through risk-parity models.
Fellow investors, what do you think BTC will do next?
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July 21, 2026, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ Bitcoin’s price strongly broke through the $66,000 psychological level, rising over 13% from the early July low of $57,800. Meanwhile, U.S. crypto-related stocks such as $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ posted significant gains in the U.S. crypto-themed equity sector. After nearly two months of range-bound consolidation, this breakout is not an isolated technical rebound, but rather the result of a confluence of three factors: policy expectations, capital flows, and on-chain structural data. 1. Improved regulatory expectations serve as the key catalyst The immediate driver of this rally is Trump reaching an agreement with the White House on the ethics provisions of the CLARITY Act.For several months prior, the provision restricting the U.S. President, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto-related activities had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the regulatory division of responsibilities between the CFTC and the SEC. A clearer regulatory framework would help reduce compliance uncertainty and boost institutional investors’ willingness to allocate capital. It should be noted that the CLARITY Act is currently still in the 'clearing obstacles' phase and has not yet been enacted into law.The revised bill must be voted on by the Senate by the first week of August; if passed, it will then return to the House for further consideration before being sent to the President for signature. In addition to regulation...
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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