Daily Options Outlook | Super Micro Computer’s margin surprises by doubling, surging nearly 17% in pre-market; Google and Tesla face critical earnings tests after hours as AI trades enter a pivotal validation phase

Today's Options Opportunity Preview

On a macro level,$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$Down 0.7% in pre-market,$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$Down 0.26% in pre-market; Trump prepares to impose new tariffs on dozens of countries, large institutional investors open a $68.2 million long position in the Nasdaq-100, and Citi warns that the U.S. equity deleveraging process remains incomplete. Options market data shows QQQ’s put/call volume ratio rose to 1.44 on the previous trading day,Implied volatility(Implied Volatility) reached 26.91%.

At the individual stock level, $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ The stock price rose approximately 16.9% in pre-market trading. The company expects its gross margin for the fourth fiscal quarter to reach 15%–17%, nearly double the previous guidance of 8.2%–8.4%. This positive outlook was further supported by the disclosure of over $60 billion in new orders during the quarter and a record backlog, offsetting concerns that revenue might land at the low end of guidance.

The core of market trading has shifted to a sudden improvement in earnings quality: earlier concerns about low gross margins and dilution from financing, which had weighed on valuation, have temporarily eased, refocusing attention on the company’s ability to convert orders into revenue. Both implied volatility (IV) rank and IV percentile have hit 100, reaching extreme highs over the past year, indicating that buying single-leg options now carries significant risk of volatility contraction. Recently, large bullish orders and protective put orders have appeared simultaneously, reflecting divergent market sentiment. Fund flow data shows institutional investors had net outflows for six consecutive days previously; thus, if the pre-market gain quickly narrows after the open, traders should be cautious of profit-taking on the high open. Only if the stock sustains the gap with strong volume would it signal that the market genuinely accepts the narrative of margin recovery.

$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ The stock price rose approximately 0.7% in pre-market trading. The company will report earnings after market close. Analysts expect quarterly revenue of approximately $116.9–117.0 billion, up about 21% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $2.87–2.90. Market focus centers on the resilience of search advertising, Google Cloud’s growth pace, AI-related capital expenditures, and progress in commercializing Gemini.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The stock price declined approximately 0.2% in pre-market trading. The company will report quarterly earnings after market close. Consensus expectations call for revenue of about $26.4 billion and earnings per share of approximately $0.54. Previously disclosed data showed a 25% year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries for the quarter, so the key points of divergence in the upcoming earnings report center on automotive gross margins, pricing strategy, cash flow, and the pace of autonomous driving fleet expansion.

Review of yesterday's options market

Index Options

On July 21 Eastern Time, U.S. equity index options market volume increased, with a total of 5.82 million contracts traded. The put/call volume ratio declined to 1.01.

In the upcoming expiration cycle,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Options volume distribution exhibited the following characteristics: peak put option volume occurred at the 7,425 strike, while peak call option volume was at the 7,510 strike.

Individual stock options

$Micron Technology (MU.US)$The stock closed up 12.17%, with 975,900 options contracts traded, and the put/call volume ratio rose to 1.21. Morgan Stanley forecasts memory chip prices will rise 25% over the next quarter, and AI data center supply shortages will persist through 2028.

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The stock closed down 1.13%, with 387,700 options contracts traded, and the put/call volume ratio fell to 0.33. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating on Microsoft with a $600 price target, arguing that growth from Azure and Copilot is underappreciated. Microsoft also signed a multi-billion-dollar partnership agreement with French AI firm Mistral to expand its AI infrastructure investments in Europe.

Top Option Volume Rankings

Among the top 10 stocks by option volume,$Micron Technology (MU.US)$had the highest put/call volume ratio, reaching 1.21.

The highest put/call open interest ratio belongs to$Micron Technology (MU.US)$, reaching 1.25.

Implied Volatility Rankings (underlying market cap > $1 billion and option volume > 100,000 contracts)

$Bloom Energy (BE.US)$Implied volatility peaked at 184.29%, down 1.00% from the previous trading day. JPMorgan maintained its overweight rating on Bloom Energy and raised its price target from $267 to $346.

$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$Implied volatility rose the most, reaching 117.84%, up 1.61% from the previous trading day. AST SpaceMobile completed a $1.15 billion private placement of convertible notes.

Risk Warning

An option is a contract that gives the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a fixed price on or before a specific date. The price of an option is influenced by multiple factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility.

Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of future price fluctuations over the life of an option. It is derived by back-solving from the Black-Scholes option pricing model and is generally viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate greater volatility, they may be willing to pay higher prices for options to hedge risk, leading to elevated implied volatility.

Traders and investors use implied volatility to assessOption priceto enhance attractiveness, identify potential mispricing, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer
This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, advice, opinion, or any form of guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit you made. Even if you place contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, there is no assurance these will prevent losses. Market conditions may render such orders unexecutable. You may be required to deposit additional margin funds on very short notice. If you fail to meet such a margin call within the specified timeframe, your open positions may be liquidated. Nevertheless, you remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Therefore, you should thoroughly research and understand options before trading and carefully consider whether such transactions are suitable for you based on your financial condition and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and handling expirations, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Investors should carefully read"Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options"。

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