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Market Maker Decoded: Bitcoin's Current Cycle Bottom May Be Near—Watch These Key Signals

Article author and source: DeepFlow TechFlow

Guest:Eric Krown, former NYSE Arca options market maker and now a full-time crypto trader, founder of the YouTube channel Krown's Crypto Cave

Host:Alessandro, host of Crypto Banter's 'Risk Takers' show

Original title:The Exact Bitcoin Levels That Decide the Next Move | Krown

Broadcast Date:July 19, 2026

Disclosure: Krown has publicly stated that he bought spot Bitcoin slightly above $60,000 and also operates paid trading courses and affiliate links with exchanges (such as ByBit and BloFin). This episode features purely technical analysis and does not promote any specific token projects.

Eric Krown is a former NYSE Arca options market maker with over 15 years of trading experience. He began learning equity options as a teenager at the Pacific Exchange and later served as a Designated Market Maker (MMAT) at NYSE Arca before transitioning full-time into crypto trading several years ago. This marks his fourth appearance on Alessandro’s 'Risk Takers' show—a monthly interview series that continuously tracks one core question:Where exactly is Bitcoin’s macro bottom?

The key new insight in this episode is Krown’s synthesis of all converging monthly chart signals into a comprehensive checklist. These include the 55 EMA reclaim level at $63,735, the stochastic crossover trigger at $64,371, the biweekly MACD histogram pointing to early August based on a 168-day cycle, and a 22.64% price pullback from the strong buy signal issued by the LTI tool in January—closely aligning with the typical 20–22% retracements seen in prior cycles. He explicitly stated that if Bitcoin closes the month above $63,735, he would be 85% confident that a macro bottom is forming. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has remained below 20 for two to three consecutive months, reflecting extreme pessimism, yet price has already staged a primary reversal—a divergence historically observed at every major macro low.

The Psychological Trap of 'Waiting for $50,000'

"Everyone is shouting about $40,000 to $50,000, but if you divide Bitcoin by the M2 money supply, it has already retested the flash crash low from August 2024 at $49,270. The number you’re waiting for—adjusted for inflation—has already been delivered."

Regarding the Monthly 55 EMA

"After Bitcoin broke below the 55 EMA in 2022, it took roughly six months to reclaim it—and once reclaimed, the bull market officially began. In 2018, it only lost two monthly candles before regaining it. Now, we just need a July close above $63,735 to reclaim it."

Regarding the 168-Day Cycle

"In 2018, it took 168 days from the MACD histogram low to the actual price low. In 2022, again, 168 days. This cycle has already been triggered; adding 168 days brings us right to early August—perfectly aligning with the monthly close and stochastic crossover time window."

Regarding Market Sentiment

"The Fear & Greed Index is at 28, having stayed below 20 for two or three consecutive months. Prices have already reversed from the lows, yet sentiment remains in the basement. Looking back at 2015, 2019, and 2022, every macro bottom followed this exact pattern."

Regarding Traditional Market Rotation

"The semiconductor index has risen 300% from April 2025 to now—I called the top in early July. Profits are now rotating into healthcare biotech (IBB) and industrial sectors. However, the SPY chart doesn’t look bearish; I don’t see any signs of a macro peak—at least not before Q4."

On Gold and Copper

"Gold just peaked in January right on its 10-year cycle, and is likely to trade sideways or decline over the next few years. Copper is different—it has just broken out of a 20-year consolidation range, with a target price around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction."

Alessandro: Last month you said Bitcoin would hover around $60,000 until summer and then start looking very attractive—do you still hold that view?

Krown: Yes, and I now have roughly 85% confidence that the monthly close this month will confirm the macro bottom. Let me share a perspective I think is severely overlooked. Everyone is waiting for Bitcoin to drop to $40,000–$50,000; influencers and retail investors alike are calling for that range. But if you look at Bitcoin divided by M2 money supply, the picture is completely different. This chart uses money supply as the denominator, effectively normalizing for inflation.

It was the same situation in 2022. Everyone was shouting for $10,000 or $8,000, but when normalized by M2, Bitcoin had already fallen to the equivalent of $10,000 by November of that year. I mentioned on my channel at the time that if you were waiting for $10,000–$11,000, you’d already reached that level once adjusted for money supply.

The current situation is identical. The sub-$50,000 level you’re waiting for has already been tested after adjusting for M2—the recent retest of the August 2024 flash crash low at $49,270 reflects that. The number you wanted has already been delivered; you just haven’t been measuring it with the right ruler.Since 2020, money supply has increased by 40% to 50%, yet we treat the US dollar as a constant when valuing assets—that in itself is a cognitive bias.

Alessandro: I’ve previously used the Bitcoin/M2 chart to illustrate that Bitcoin is the only asset consistently making higher highs and higher lows relative to money supply. Both the S&P 500 and gold are actually trending lower against M2.

Krown: Exactly. The S&P 500 only recently broke above its 1999 high—and that also corresponds to a breakout against M2. Everything relates to money supply; nothing operates in a vacuum.

Alessandro: Let’s get into specific price levels. What’s the current status of the monthly 55 EMA you mentioned earlier?

Krown: Let’s start with the simplest point. Historically, the 55 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the monthly chart has been a key moving average for Bitcoin to confirm macro lows. In 2022, Bitcoin broke below it and spent about six months trading underneath; once it reclaimed the level, it marked a major signal, and the bull market began from there. In 2018, Bitcoin only closed below it for two monthly candles before reclaiming it, then surged sharply. Going further back, in 2015 and 2014—though historical data is limited—the 55 EMA similarly served as a foundational support level during market bottoms.

Current situation: If Bitcoin closes this month above $63,735, it will have successfully reclaimed the 55 EMA.We’re currently right around this level. There are still 11 to 12 trading days left in the month, and so far, everything looks on track. This signal is very concrete and easy to monitor. Even if you’re the most die-hard bear, you’d have to acknowledge this at least represents a major low, and Bitcoin is highly likely to rebound above $70,000.

In the short term, I still need to see BTC close abovethe recent high of $65,500. But on the monthly timeframe,$63,735 is the first hard threshold.

Alessandro: What about the monthly MACD?

Krown: The monthly MACD is now showing signs of weakening momentum. July marked the first 'awesome momentum signal,' with the previous one occurring in April. Historically, whenever monthly MACD momentum starts to fade, the low has either already formed or is so close that you might as well just enter the market. That was the case in 2015—the low was already in. In 2019, the reversal happened almost right on that bar. In 2022, despite the extreme FTX collapse that followed, if you had bought when the MACD signal appeared, you would have entered just one month before the ultimate low—and over the long term, you’d be very satisfied.

On the RSI front, the monthly RSI is now roughly at the same level as the 2022 low—possibly even slightly lower—and below all of Bitcoin’s previous macrocycle lows. Multiple momentum oscillators are converging at the same level, corroborating the same narrative.

Now look at the monthly Stochastic Oscillator. It has already dipped into oversold territory below 20, which is a classic low signal. The next confirmation will come when it crosses upward. Every time this crossover occurs, the low has already been established.I’ve tracked data back to 2012, and there hasn’t been a single exception.

Here's a key number: I reverse-engineered it—if BTC closes monthly at64,371 or higher, it would force an upward crossover in the Stochastic Oscillator. So you have two trigger levels within a very narrow range:63,735 to reclaim the 55 EMA, and $64,371 to trigger the Stochastic crossover. If both conditions are met simultaneously—alongside the MACD momentum signal and the low RSI—even the most aggressive bears would have to start considering whether this is the macro bottom.

Alessandro: What about the biweekly MACD histogram trendline you mentioned earlier?

Krown: This was one of the tools I used publicly in 2022 to call the macro low ahead of time. On the biweekly timeframe, you can draw a downtrend line on the MACD histogram starting from 2018. Each time the histogram touches this line, a low forms. Note that the MACD histogram low doesn’t coincide exactly with the price low—they’re separated by a time lag.

But this time lag is extremely consistent. In 2018: 168 days from the MACD histogram low to the actual macro price low. In 2022: again, exactly 168 days—down to the day.

This cycle, the trendline has already been triggered. Count forward 168 days, and you land in early August. This aligns perfectly with the monthly 55 EMA reversion and the stochastic crossover timing window. All signals are converging at the same point in time.

Alessandro: So the signals you're seeing aren't isolated—they're all synchronously pointing to the same conclusion?

Krown: Exactly. That's why I say I have 85% confidence. Any single indicator can be wrong, but when five or six independent signals all trigger within the same week, the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor. It’s the same logic as World Cup betting odds. France might be the top favorite, with their win probability rising from 15% to 40%, but the combined probability of all other teams is still higher than France’s alone. You can have very solid reasons to bet on France, yet you’re still likely to be wrong.

Alessandro: Trading is the same—you never have 100% certainty.

Krown: Never. But when you have a probabilistic edge, just stand on the side of the higher probability. You don’t need to be right every time—in a market like Bitcoin, you only need to be right once on a big move.

Alessandro: What about your LTI (Long-Term Investor) tool? Last time you mentioned it issued a buy signal.

Krown: LTI is a long-term tool that combines volatility, momentum, calendar dates, and other fundamental factors. Each time it issues a strong buy signal, price typically has about 20% further downside to the ultimate low. Let me quickly walk through the history.

In December 2014, the first strong buy signal appeared—price fell 22.90% from the signal to the next closing low. In 2018, it was 20.61% from signal to low. In June 2022, the signal appeared, and price dropped 20.65% to the macro closing low.In this cycle, a strong buy signal emerged as early as January 2026. From that signal to the current closing low, the market has already dropped 22.64%.Four signals showed declines ranging between 20% and 23%, strikingly consistent.

My assessment of the macro bottom hinges on one prerequisite: the weekly trend must formally reverse. Currently, all higher timeframes remain in a downtrend—that’s a fact. However, if the monthly close settles above the levels previously mentioned, my confidence would increase from 80% to 85%. This doesn’t rule out Bitcoin first rallying to $75,000 before falling back to $65,000, but the bottoming structure is taking shape.

Alessandro: What’s your view on market sentiment?

Krown: The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 28, after spending two or three consecutive months below 20. According to my YouTube analytics, audience interest has also declined significantly. However, those who remain are extremely pessimistic.

There’s a classic divergence here: market sentiment is in the basement, yet price has already completed its primary reversal from the lows. This setup appeared at every macro bottom in 2015, 2019, and 2022.People think they’re acting against the crowd, but in reality, they *are* the crowd. The crowd is bearish—and highly confident about it.

Even if the macro bottom hasn’t been reached yet, I don’t believe there’s much more downside left. At worst, we’re looking at a multi-month rally. $60,000 is my critical level—a confluence of psychological and technical significance. As long as Bitcoin stays above this level, I’ll treat it as a primary low, possibly even the macro bottom. A weekly or biweekly close below $60,000 would invalidate many structural setups.

Alessandro: So your invalidation point is a biweekly or 10-day close below $60,000?

Krown: Yes, technically speaking, you’d need to see the biweekly or at least the 10-day closing price drop below $60,000 before those signals start breaking down. Below that level, a lot of things fall apart. But I haven’t seen any signs of that yet.

Alessandro: What about the four-year cycle? Do you think this low will come earlier than October?

Krown: Honestly, I’ve stopped caring about the four-year cycle narrative. Everyone’s reading on YouTube that 'Bitcoin bottoms one year after peaking, so the low must be in October.' But how do you define the peak? If you look at Bitcoin versus M2, the timing of the high shifts. I’ll act when I see bottoming signals—I don’t care what the history textbooks say about the exact date.

Alessandro: But it’s only July now. If the bottom is happening right now or within the next month or two, you’d have to admit the four-year cycle was right again.

Krown: Exactly. July is just three months away from October—it’s close enough that you could tip your hat and say, 'Alright, it was right again.' I don’t need pinpoint accuracy down to October 16. In this market, you don’t need perfection to make a fortune. But if Bitcoin hits a new low in October, I’d seriously question whether that’s truly the bottom, because it would mean technicals have suffered deeper damage.

Alessandro: You mentioned rotation is happening in traditional markets—can you elaborate?

Krown: Semiconductors are the biggest story. NVIDIA, Intel, Micron—I publicly called the top in early July. The semiconductor index has risen over 300% since April 2025; just holding the index would have tripled your money. People are taking profits, which is completely understandable.

But I’m not bearish on traditional markets. Rotation doesn’t equal a bear market.Capital flowing out of semiconductors is now moving into healthcare biotechnology. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has just completed a daily chart breakout, and I believe it will continue rising through year-end. There may be a short-term pullback toward 180, offering a buying opportunity. The industrial sector is also strengthening.

The SPY chart isn't bearish. It might see a short-term pullback toward 7200, but the overall outlook remains bullish into Q4. I don’t see any macro signs of a top forming yet—at least not before October or November. QQQ is weaker in the short term, and there could be another sharp selloff around early August (as has happened over the past few years), but it should resume its upward trend afterward.

Alessandro: The memory ETF has given back about half its gains, yet the broader index hasn’t been significantly affected. Apple is once again the world’s largest company—that’s insane.

Krown: Apple’s chart looks very strong, with room to run for at least another three to six months. This is how the market works: when one sector tops out, capital rotates into the next, and the index keeps climbing. This pattern has held since 2008. People love calling macro tops—probably because they watched 'The Big Short' and idolize those guys. But honestly, going long has been far easier than shorting in these markets.

Alessandro: Lastly, what about gold and copper?

Krown: I remain extremely bearish on gold and silver. Gold peaked in January, right on its 10-year cycle, and is likely to trade sideways to lower over the coming years, with occasional rallies that offer shorting opportunities. If you’re holding long positions during this rally, consider it a gift from God to sell.

Copper tells a completely different story. It has just broken out of a 20-year consolidation range that began in 2006, with a price target around $8.Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction, as these facilities require massive amounts of copper.As long as copper trades above $560, the technical picture remains objectively bullish. I don’t trade copper often, but purely from a technical standpoint, the breakout appears genuine and there’s still upside potential.

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