BaiDao Options Opportunity Pool | Tech Earnings Week, Intel Reports—Why 'Strategic Restraint'? US-Iran Tensions Flare Again; Watch the Energy Undercurrent

Hello, fellow investors! Welcome to this week's 'Bai Dao Plays Options' opportunity pool! Each week, we focus on clear market themes and highlight low-barrier options opportunities worth watching. We don't tell get-rich-quick stories of 1,000x returns in a day—we focus on: what’s the logic, is it worth watching, and where’s the risk.

This Week's Market Focus

This week features major tech earnings— $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 、 $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ 、 $Intel (INTC.US)$ The big three are all reporting, with Google and Tesla stepping up first after Wednesday’s market close. Earnings season is usually the most exciting time for options traders, but this time we’re pouring cold water on the hype:Not every earnings event is worth betting on。

Intel’s IV percentile has already shot up to 100%, with the market pricing in ±15% volatility—meaning the options prices have fully baked in a 'big move.' The moment you buy, you’re paying for extreme expectations. To make matters worse, if you consider switching to peers like AMD or ARM, their IVs are equally elevated. So this week, we’re saying 'no' to Intel’s earnings—not out of fear, but in line with Bai Dao Opportunity Pool’s principle:If there’s no suitable setup, don’t force a trade。

Another undercurrent is geopolitics. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are flaring again, but market attention remains relatively muted, and crude oil options’ IV is still moderate. This kind of window—where the event is clear but pricing hasn’t gone crazy—is actually a reasonable time to consider options plays.

This week, we’re focusing on two tickers:Google (GOOGL)——Its first earnings report under the shadow of delays to its flagship AI model;USE——The oil price tug-of-war amid U.S.-Iran tensions.

Target #1: $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$

Google reports earnings after the market close on Wednesday, but this time the focus isn’t just on the numbers—it’s also overshadowed by a lingering concern:Gemini delay controversy。

Last week, reports surfaced that Google had delayed the launch of its most advanced flagship AI model by several months due to underwhelming coding capabilities and falling behind OpenAI.The news triggered a 5% single-day drop in Google’s stock. As a result, this earnings report has turned into a 'vote of confidence'—can management reassure investors during the earnings call? What’s the progress on monetizing its AI business? The answers to these questions will directly shape the stock’s near-term trajectory.

Interestingly, while the market questions Google’s AI progress, another report revealed that Google is now offering its custom TPU chips to external customers—directly challenging NVIDIA’s turf.Warren Buffett recently also made a rare comment, saying Google 'can beat 95% of the stocks recommended by Wall Street.'

It’s worth noting that although Google is also a tech-sector leader, its current implied volatility (IV) isn’t extreme; options prices ahead of earnings haven’t been inflated to unreasonable levels, making entry costs relatively reasonable.

(The design images shown on screen are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or guarantees; market conditions change rapidly, and the displayed option prices do not reflect real-time data. Options shown are filtered around the $1 strike price.)

Bullish rationale:

Earnings Expectation Gap Repricing: The news about Gemini’s delay has already triggered a round of selling, so this negative catalyst may have been partially priced in. If cloud and AI revenue exceed expectations in the earnings report, the market could refocus on fundamentals rather than the short-term delay.

Externalization of TPUs Opens a New Narrative: Google selling TPUs to emerging cloud providers is a development the market has undervalued. If management highlights progress in its foundry business during the earnings call, it could serve as a new catalyst.

Valuation Anchor Provides Support: Although Buffett’s endorsement isn’t a buy signal per se, it indicates that 'smart money' still has confidence in Google’s long-term value, suggesting room for a rebound after recent overselling.

Bearish Thesis:

Shaking of the AI narrative is a major issueGemini's delay isn't just a product issue—it reflects eroding market confidence in whether Google can maintain its lead in the AI race. If the earnings call fails to provide a clear timeline, this uncertainty will continue to weigh on the stock price.

Concerns over advertising business:Google’s primary revenue source remains advertising, and the rise of AI-powered search is changing user behavior. If the earnings report shows slowing growth in search ad revenue, the market may reassess the moat around its core business.

Competitive pressures are very realNews reports explicitly state that Google is lagging behind OpenAI in coding capabilities—this isn’t baseless speculation. AI is currently a core pillar of Google’s valuation, and any erosion of this foundation amplifies downside risk.

Target #2: $United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)$

U.S.-Iran tensions have flared up again, driving crude oil prices up 15% last week. Interestingly, however, market attention hasn’t been particularly high.

USO is an ETF that tracks crude oil futures and is the most commonly used vehicle for investors to gain exposure to oil price volatility. When geopolitical tensions escalate but aren’t yet fully priced in by the market, options offer relatively better risk-reward value.Of course, the defining feature of geopolitics is its unpredictability—conflict could escalate or de-escalate overnight.

(The design images displayed on screen are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or guarantees; market prices change frequently, and the option prices shown do not reflect actual market conditions. Options were filtered based on a strike price near $1.)

Bullish rationale:

Supply concerns have not yet been fully priced in: Although oil prices rose 15% last week, USO's implied volatility remains relatively moderate, indicating the market hasn't fully entered 'panic mode.' If geopolitical tensions escalate further or concerns intensify over potential disruptions to Strait of Hormuz transit, oil prices still have upside potential.

Trump’s tariff threat is a potential catalyst: News reports mention Trump threatening to impose a 20% tariff on all goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz—a policy uncertainty that could increase oil price volatility.

Seasonal demand peak: Summer is traditionally a peak season for oil demand, providing some fundamental support.

Bearish rationale:

Risk of geopolitical premium unwindingOil prices driven up by geopolitical conflicts often rise quickly and fall just as fast. Once there are signs of easing tensions (Trump’s TACO market has seen this many times), oil prices could rapidly give back their gains.

It already had a big rally last week.A 15% weekly gain means much of the positive news is already priced in. The risk of chasing higher prices with bullish bets is that you might be buying at a short-term peak.

Global demand concerns remain.If economic data weakens, demand-side pressure could outweigh supply-side concerns, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

Why not recommend trading Intel?

Finally, let me explain why we’re not touching Intel’s earnings this time.

Intel reports earnings on Thursday, which should theoretically be a feast for options traders. But here’s the problem:The market has already fully priced in extreme volatility.Intel’s implied volatility (IV) percentile has hit 100% (meaning current implied volatility is higher than at any point in history), and option prices already reflect expectations of a ±15% move.

In this scenario, as a buyer of calls or puts, you typically need the stock price to move more than ±15% to profit. This isn't impossible, but the odds are already stacked against you.

Thinking of switching to a peer company? $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ and $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$ has similarly elevated IV. Although AMD has positive news that Anthropic is testing its GPUs (as the AI giant systematically reduces reliance on NVIDIA), options pricing has already priced in this optimistic expectation.

Rather than gambling in a high-IV environment, it’s better to wait for opportunities with more reasonable pricing.It’s currently earnings season—fellow investors can also refer to the chart below to check the volatility of stocks they’re considering.

Not familiar with options basics? Study up before jumping in.

If, while reading this opportunity list, you're still unclear about concepts like 'What is a Long Call?' or 'How do I interpret strike prices?', don’t rush to place orders—take some time first to solidify your foundation. We’ve compiled practical beginner resources below; consider bookmarking them:

Long Call: Buy a call option

Long Put: Buy a put option

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Disclaimer

This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, there is no assurance that losses will be avoided. Market conditions may prevent these orders from being executed. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to meet the required margin within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. Nevertheless, you remain liable for any deficit balance in your account resulting from such events. Therefore, you should thoroughly research and understand options before trading, and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial condition and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should familiarize yourself with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration.

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