Daily Options Income Strategy | SpaceX Falls Below IPO Price for the First Time! Starship’s 13th Test Flight—Golden Pit or Further Decline Ahead?

I. Market Barometer

The three major U.S. equity indices all closed higher in the previous trading session, signaling a recovery in market risk appetite; however, $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ the stock continued its downward trend, briefly dipping below its $135 IPO price during the session and ultimately closing at $135.27, with its market capitalization down roughly $860 billion from its peak. Facing a 'break-IPO' crisis just one month after listing, the heightened volatility has created a premium window for options sellers.

II. Watchlist Highlights

SPCX: Dips Below IPO Price for the First Time—Institutional Bullishness vs. Approaching Lock-Up Expiry Pressure

$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ On the previous trading day (July 15), the stock fell 0.60% to close at $135.27. It reached an intraday high of $139.34 and a low of $132.15, briefly breaking below its $135 IPO price and hitting a new low since listing. Its current market cap stands at approximately $1.8 trillion.

From a technical perspective, the stock is currently in a sharp downtrend phase. Since its closing high on June 16, the share price has declined by roughly one-third, wiping out approximately $860 billion in market value. The $135 IPO price is viewed as a key psychological support level; if decisively breached, there would be no clear technical support levels beneath it. Resistance lies near $140, an area where recent rebounds have repeatedly stalled.

Implied volatility in options remains elevated, reflecting significant market uncertainty over near-term direction. The put/call ratio continues to rise, indicating increased positioning for further downside.

The core driver behind this sustained decline stems from a confluence of multiple pressures:

First, dual pressures from valuation and supply.SpaceX currently trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of over 30x, ranking among the highest in the Nasdaq 100 index. Meanwhile, insider shares will be unlocked in tranches over the coming months and flood the market. This sustained supply of stock is expected to exert long-term downward pressure on the share price, and it remains uncertain whether the market can absorb this influx effectively. The scarcity of freely tradable shares—less than 5% at IPO—has been central to supporting its high valuation, and the lock-up expiration will directly end this condition.

- Phase One:Performance-triggered small-scale unlockings (starting August 2026):Following the Q2 earnings release (expected around August 6), insiders may sell up to 20% of their holdings starting on the second full trading day after the report. Additional shares can be unlocked if SPCX closes above $175.50 (130% of the $135 IPO price) on at least five out of any ten consecutive trading days, triggering an extra 10% unlock.

- Phase Two:Staggered monthly lock-up expirations:Starting on day 70 after listing, shares will be unlocked in five tranches—on August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 24—with 7% released each time, totaling 35%, ensuring a steady supply of tradable shares.

- Phase Three:Large-scale concentrated unlock (November–December 2026):Following the Q3 earnings release (expected in November), the single largest unlock event will occur, releasing 28% of shares. Around mid-December, the standard 180-day lock-up period expires, unlocking all remaining eligible Class A shares and marking the point at which the majority of shares become freely tradable.

- Phase Four:Long-term lock-up for core shareholders (June 2027):CEO Elon Musk and other major shareholders are subject to a 366-day lock-up period, meaning their shares cannot be sold until at least June 2027.

Second is the sharp divergence between Wall Street and the market.Just as the stock price approached its IPO price, several top-tier investment banks initiated coverage with highly optimistic ratings. Morgan Stanley set a $300 price target, Needham raised its target from $200 to $250, and Deutsche Bank assigned a $255 target. Nearly 80% of analysts are bullish, with an average price target of approximately $244—more than 70% above the current share price.

The near-term catalyst window is approaching.The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has approved SpaceX for the 13th test flight of its Starship, scheduled as early as July 16. This mission will deploy 20 next-generation Starlink satellites for the first time and validate critical technologies such as in-orbit reignition of Raptor engines, making it a key near-term catalyst for the stock price.

3. Options Premium Collection Strategy

1. Cash Secured Put

Sell 1 contract of $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ 260731 113P, estimated margin requirement (for reference only): $3,847

Opportunity Rationale:

For investors who believe in SpaceX’s long-term narrative around commercial spaceflight and AI-enabled space infrastructure but have not yet established a position, the current share price has briefly dipped below the IPO offering price and sits in the lowest range since listing, reflecting extreme short-term pessimism. However, over 80% of Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating, arguing that the market has undervalued the cost revolution enabled by Starship reusability and the long-term potential of its space-based computing business.

By selling put options, investors can collect premium income in this high-volatility environment if the stock stabilizes near the IPO price or rebounds on the back of the Starship test flight catalyst. If the share price declines further toward $113 due to lockup expiration pressure, they may also gain the opportunity to establish a position at a lower effective cost basis.

2. Covered Call

Hold 100 shares $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$, sell 1 contract of SPCX 260724 150C

Opportunity Rationale:

For investors already holding SPCX and facing significant unrealized losses, the stock has been trading sideways near the IPO price in the short term, and ongoing insider lockup expirations continue to exert supply-side pressure that limits near-term upside.

If investors remain confident in the company’s long-term vision but worry that the lockup expiration wave and short-term sentiment will keep weighing on the stock, they could consider selling call options. If the stock consolidates around current levels, the option premium would gradually reduce their cost basis; if the price later rebounds to around $150 and the option is exercised, it effectively achieves a staged profit-taking at a technical resistance level.

IV. Risk Management Advisory

Although seller strategies have a high win rate, investors must still implement proper risk management:

– Position sizing is key:The biggest risk of option selling strategies lies in black swan events. It is recommended that the margin allocated to any single underlying asset should not exceed 20% of total capital. Never sell options beyond your risk tolerance just for the sake of collecting premium.

– Timely rolling of covered calls:If a covered call becomes deeply in-the-money (i.e., the stock price significantly exceeds the strike price) and you remain bullish on the underlying stock, promptly 'roll' the position—close the current option by buying it back and simultaneously sell a new call with a later expiration and a higher strike price—to avoid having your shares called away at an unfavorable price.

– Beware of 'left-tail risk' with cash-secured puts:For cash-secured puts, if the stock price crashes due to fundamental deterioration (rather than normal pullbacks), do not hold on stubbornly. In such cases, exit with a stop-loss or 'roll down' the position to buy time and wait for volatility to normalize.

Make good use of the Option Seller Hub to understand potential income strategies for selling options,Earn option premiums!

Options Risk Disclosure

An option is a contract that grants the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a fixed price on or before a specified date. The price of an option is influenced by various factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of future price fluctuations over the life of the option; it is derived by reverse-engineering the option’s price using the Black-Scholes pricing model and is commonly viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. When investors anticipate greater volatility, they may be willing to pay higher premiums for options to hedge their risk, leading to higher implied volatility. Traders and investors use implied volatility to assess the attractiveness of option prices, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer

This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, advice, opinion, or any guarantee regarding any securities, financial products, or instruments. Trading options involves substantial risk of loss. In certain circumstances, your losses may exceed the initial margin deposit. Even if you place contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, you may not necessarily avoid losses, as market conditions may prevent these orders from being executed. You may be required to deposit additional margin on short notice. If you fail to provide the required amount within the stipulated time, your open positions may be liquidated. Nevertheless, you remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Therefore, you should thoroughly research and understand options and carefully consider whether trading them is suitable for you based on your financial condition and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should familiarize yourself with the procedures for exercising options and handling expiration, as well as your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiration. Options trading entails very high risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Investors should carefully read the document 'Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options' before engaging in any options trading strategy.

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