ASML Holding and Taiwan Semiconductor both reported strong earnings—when will the semiconductor sell
台积电2026Q2业绩直播
Key Takeaways (AI-Generated)
财务表现
- 第二季度营收超过402亿美元，达到指引高端
- 毛利率67.7%，环比增长150个基点，略超指引
- 先进制程（7纳米及以下）占晶圆营收77%
- 2纳米制程贡献3%营收，3纳米、5纳米、7纳米分别占30%、33%、11%
业务进展
- 宣布在亚利桑那州追加1000亿美元投资，建设多个2纳米及以下制程晶圆厂
- A14技术开发进展顺利，内部产品验证显示接近90%器件性能和良率
- A14预计2027年开始试产，2028年量产
- 全球扩张计划执行良好，在台湾、亚利桑那和日本各增加一个3纳米晶圆厂
下一季度业绩指引
- 第三季度营收指引446-458亿美元，环比增长12%，同比增长37%
- 毛利率指引65.5-67%，环比下降1.7个百分点
- 2026年全年营收增长预期略高于40%
- 2026年资本支出预算上调至600-640亿美元，较此前大幅提升
机会
- A14技术家族将成为比3纳米更大、更持久的节点
- 代理AI兴起推动CPU在AI数据中心的需求复苏
- 与美国客户和政府密切合作，获得强力支持进行亚利桑那投资
- 利用制造卓越性提高晶圆产出，推动跨节点产能优化
风险
- 面临三星foundry和英特尔的竞争压力
- 消费者和价格敏感市场受到元器件价格上涨影响
- 海外晶圆厂扩张预计在未来几年造成2-4%毛利率稀释
- 通胀导致设备采购成本上升，影响资本支出
Full Transcript (AI-Generated)
苏志凯
世界级媒体的朋友们，大家午安，我是台积电法人关系处的苏志凯。欢迎您参加台积公司2026年第二季的法人说明会。由于本法说会是向全球投资人同时连线转播，所以我们会全程使用英文，请您见见谅。
Jeff SU
Good afternoon everyone and welcome to TSMC Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference and Conference Call. This is Jeff SU, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today. Today's event is being webcast live through TSMC's website at triplew.tsmc.com where you can also download the earnings release materials.
If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial in lines are in listen only mode. The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2026, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2026.
Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO Doctor CC Wei will join you, provide the company's key messages. Then we will open both the floor and the line for the question and answer session. As usual, I'd like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ maturity from those contained in the forward-looking statements.
Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears in our press release. And now I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.
Wendell Huang
Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the second quarter of 2026. After that, I will provide the guidance for the third quarter of 2026.
Now let's move on to revenue by technology. Two nanometer process technology contributed 3% of wafer revenue in the second quarter. 3 nanometer, 5 nanometer and seven nanometer accounted for 30 percent, 33% and 11% respectively. Advanced technology, defined as 7 nanometer and below, accounted for 77% of wafer revenue.
Moving on to revenue contribution by platform, HPC increased 20% quarter over quarter to account for 66% of our second quarter revenue. Smartphone decreased 4% to account for 22%. IoT increased 4% to account for 5%. Automotive increased 15% to account for 4%. DCE increased 5% to account for 1%.
Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of 3.5 trillion NT or 110 billion U.S. dollars. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by 144 billion NT quarter over quarter, mainly due to the increase of 58 billion in accounts payable and the increase of 4048 billion in accrued liabilities and others.
In terms of financial ratios, accounts receivable days increased by three days to 29 days. Inventory days increased 7 days to 87 days primarily due to the ramp of N 2 technology. Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the second quarter, we generated about 783 billion NT in cash from operations, spent 496 billion in CapEx and distributed 156 billion for third quarter 2025 cash dividend.
Overall, our cash balance increased 99 billion NT to 3.1 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our second quarter capital expenditures total 15.7 billion. I finished my financial summary, now let me let's turn to the current quarter guidance.
Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third quarter revenue to be between 44.6 billion and 45.8 billion U.S. Dollars, which represents a 12% sequential increase or a 37% year over year increase at the midpoint based on the exchange rate assumption of one U.S. dollar to 32 NT. Gross margin is expected to be between 65.5 and 67% operating margin between 56 and 58%.
This concludes by financial presentation. Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by talking about our second quarter 26 and third quarter 26 profitability. Compared to the first quarter, our second quarter gross margin increased by 150 basis point sequentially to a 67.7%, slightly ahead of our guidance, primarily due to cost improvement efforts and the slightly higher overall capacity utilization rate, partially offset by dilution from our overseas fabs.
We have just guided our third quarter gross margin to decreased by 1.7 percentage point to 66% at the midpoint, primarily as we expect the steep ramp up of our two nanometer technology to dilute our gross margin by about 3 to 4 percentage points. This dilution is expected to be partially offset by very strong demand for our leading edge technologies and continue cost improvement efforts including productivity gains and across no capacity optimization.
Looking at the second-half of the year, given the six factors that determine our profitability, there are a few puts and takes that I would like to share. First, we expect a steep ramp up of our two nanometers to dilute our gross margin by above 3 to 4 percentage points in the second-half of the year.
Furthermore, as the scale of our overseas expansion grows, we continue to forecast the gross margin dilution from the ramp up of overseas fabs in the next several years to be 2 to 3% in the early stages and widen to 3 to 4% in the latter stages. On the other hand, demand for our leading edge technologies is very strong.
In addition, we continue to leverage our manufacturing excellence to generate more wafer output and drive greater across node capacity optimization in our fab operations to support our profitability. Finally, we have no control over the foreign exchange rate, but that may be another factor.
Next, let me talk about our 2026 capital budget at TSMC. Higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated to higher growth opportunities in the following years. With our strong technology leadership and differentiation, we are well positioned to capture the multi year structural demand from the industry mega trends of 5G and HPC.
Given the continued strong structural demand from our customers including the newly emerging agentic AI market, we have decided to raise our full year 2026 capital budget to be between 60 and 64 billion U.S. dollars. As we continue to invest heavily to support our customers growth, we always collaborate closely with the two suppliers well in advance to prepare the capacity, whether it is a strong up cycle or down cycle, just like our customers collaborate with us well in advance to plan our capacity.
Thus, we do not foresee any bottlenecks to our capacity expansion plans. About 70 to 80% of the 2026 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies and about 10 to 20% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask making and others.
Even as we invest for the future growth with this level of CapEx spending in 2026, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. We also remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increased cash dividend per share on both an annual and quarterly basis.
In 2025, we paid 467 billion NT in cash dividends, up 28.6% year over year. As TSMC shareholders receive a total of 818 NT cash dividend per share in 2026, they will receive 24 per share up another 33% year over year and we expect to continue and increasing cash dividends per share in 2027 as well. Now let me turn the microphone over to CC.
CC Wei
Thank you Wendell. Good afternoon everyone. First let me start with our near term demand outlook. We concluded our second quarter with revenue over US 40.2 billion at the high end of our guidance in U.S. dollar terms, driven by strong demand for our leading edge process technologies.
Moving into third quarter, we expect our business to be supported by continuous strong demand for our leading edge process technologies including the steel ramp of our two nanometer technology. Looking ahead, we observe consumer and the price sensitive and the market segment are being challenged due to the impact of rising component prices and make way to Chinese make way economic uncertainties.
As such, we are being prudent in our business planning while focusing on our fundamentals of our business to further strengthen our competitive position. Having said that, AI related demand continues to be extremely robust. The AI mega trend continue to drive the need for more and more computation, which supports the robust demand for leading edge silicon.
Our customers and customers are customer who are mainly in the cloud service provider continue to provide us with their very strong signal and positive outlook. Thus our conviction in the multi year AI megatrend remain very high supported by our robust technology differentiation and the broad customer base.
We now expect our four year 2026 revenue growth to be slightly above 40% year over year in the US dollar terms. Now let me talk about the acceleration of authentic AI. The AI market continue to be very dynamic. The emergence of authentic AI is leading to a resurgence in the role of CPUs in AI data centers, which drive more silicon demand in addition to AI accelerators.
We believe this is positive for TSMC as no matter what CPU approach is taken, whether it's X86 ARM based or RISC 5 architecture, they are almost all TSMC's customers. We are already collaborating closely with our CPU customers and working to support them with the most advanced technologies and necessary capacity so they can capture the authentic market opportunities.
Next, let me talk about a TSMC's capacity expansion strategies to address the structural increase in overall long term semiconductor market demand profile. TSMC collaborate closely with our customer and our customers customer to plan our capacity. Given the fundamental complexity of leading edge technologies and the designing and deep time involved.
We also have a very good idea of their multi year product role map and production plans. This is important because it takes more than five years to develop the technology and product, prepare the capacity and ramp it up to high volume production. Internally, TSMC employees are disciplined capacity planning system to assess the market demand from both a top down and bottom up approach. This is a continuous and ongoing process.
Based on our assessment, we are stepping up our CapEx investment to increase our capacity to support our customers future growth now with a strong collaboration and support from our leading US customers and the US federal, state and city government, we would like to announce an additional 100 billion U.S. dollar investment in Arizona.
This is to build several more semiconductor logical wafer fab for two nanometer and below technologies as well as advanced packaging fabs to support the strong multi year demand for more leading US customers. We believe this investment will help to further foster the development of the US semiconductor ecosystem, strengthen the supply chain and support an increasing number of high tech, high paying jobs in the United States.
At the same time, we are building 13 leading edge and advanced packaging fab in Taiwan over the next several years and we will continue to further invest in Taiwan. Therefore, TSMC is a semiconductor technology and manufacturing work continue to play a pivotal role in supporting the global semiconductor industry while addition our customers innovation.
Now let me talk about the current entry capacity expansion. We are executing well on our global plan to add three additional 3 nanometer fires, one in Taiwan, one in Arizona and one in Japan to support the robust multi year pipeline of demand for three nanometer technologies.
In addition to all the new files, we continue to convert 5 nanometer tools to support 3 nanometer capacity in Taiwan. We are also leveraging our manufacturing excellence to drive greater productivity across our fab in all locations to generate more waiver output. We are also focusing on capacity optimization across node, which including flexible capacity support among N7N5 and N3 nodes.
In summary, we are using multiple levers to do everything we can wherever we can, however we can to maximize the support to all our customers. Now let me talk about our mature node strategies. TSMC is a strategy and mature node has not changed. Our first priority is to fully support our customer and now we continue to increase, not decrease our mature node capacity in the high higher value entry segment.
For example, we are increasing our mature node capacity through JASM Fab One in Japan for CMOS emission sensor application and ESMC in Germany for automotive and the industrial applications. In today's market, outside of specific areas such as power management, IC and CMOS emission sensor, the mature node demand in other commodity area is not that strong.
This TSMC will continue to focus on the higher value added and strategic segment by ensuring we have a necessary capacity to support our customer service growth. Finally, let me talk about our A14 status. As I mentioned a few minutes ago, the complexity of leading edge technology continue to increase.
The lead time to develop a new technology such as A 14 building the capacity and then ramping it up now takes five to seven years. There are no shortcuts. Our A 14 technology representing the second generation of narrow sheet transistors and deliver another 4 known stride from N2 with performance and power benefit to address the insensible need for high performance and energy efficient computing.
Compared with yen, 2A14 were provided 10 to 15 speed improvement at the same power or 25 to 30 power improvement at the same speed. And close to 20% chip density gain a 14. Technology development is on track and progressing well. Internal product light vehicle demonstrated close to 90% device performance and close to 90 percent 256 megabits SRAMU.
We are observing a stronger level of customer interest and engagement from both smartphone and HPCAI applications and customer now tap out activity is ongoing and ahead of schedules. Reproduction was started in 2027 and volume production is scheduled for 2028. We saw a strategy of continuous enhancement.
We also introduced the A 13 and A 12 as extension of the A14 family. A 13 represents a further advancement over A 14 achieving over 6% by area saving through an innovative 9397% optical shrink through continuous design technology Co optimization. A 13 also drive further performance and power efficient improvement.
Inserting design rule are backward compatible with A 14 to ensure smooth IP migration. We also introduced A12 which will bring our innovative Superpower rail technology to the A 14 platform for superior performance, power and area benefit. Both A 13 and A 12 are scheduled for voting production in 2029.
We believe A 14 and its derivative technologies will prepare our A 14 family to be an even larger and long lasting node for TSMC then. To just like A to And longer last in node than 3 nanometer. And here further extend our technology leadership position work into the future. This concludes our our key messages and thank you for your attention.
Jeff SU
Thank you, CC. So this does conclude our prepared statements. Before we begin the Q&A session. Again, I would like to remind everybody to please limit your questions to two at a time to allow all the participants an opportunity to ask their questions. Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call online.
Should you raise to, should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before management answers the question. So for those of you on the call, if you'd like to ask the question, please press * then one on your telephone keypad. Now, if at any time you'd like to remove yourself from the questioning queue, please press *2.
Please note with that we try, we'll try to conclude today's meeting at around 3:10 or so. So we will try to get in as many participants your questions as possible, but if we're not able to, we do apologize in advance and thank you everyone for your patience. So, operator, well, let's begin the Q&A session. We'll take the first few questions from the floor and then we'll go online. Maybe again, left, center, right. Maybe we'll take the first question.
Sunny Lin
Sunny Lin from UBS, please. Thank you very much. Congrats on the very strong performance and outlook. So #1 I'll do double click on the CapEx. So very encouraging CapEx outlook. And I do think it's essential that here is an issue case stronger determination in capacity expansion given the stronger demand and the very tight supply.
And so beyond 2026, I think every large client also wonder how aggressive TSMC is planning for CapEx And so back in the COVID super cycle, TSMCP provide a three-year CapEx outlook by then. And so I wonder at this point will be possible for you to share any color maybe for the coming three US CapEx? Thank you.
CC Wei
Hey Sunny, we do not have a number to share with you but as you know we invest CapEx this year for the future business opportunity and as long as there are business opportunities we are not a hesitate to invest. As you can hear from our prepared remarks that we are conviction in the megatrend AM megatrend multi year is very strong and we are stepping up the CapEx including increasing this year's CapEx.
Last time we said our CapEx in the next three years will be significantly higher than the CapEx in the past three years. Now is the CapEx in the next three years will be even more significantly higher than the past three years?
Sunny Lin
Yeah, sorry, maybe let me follow up on CapEx of another. So you just announced additional 100 billion CapEx in the US and I think that's pretty important for you to secure the business in the US as well. And so now was total 265 billion CapEx in Arizona. What's your current plan to bring on the capacities in Arizona in the coming few years?
CC Wei
Sunny, the schedule what depend on the market situation, you know that. So today's situation, the mega trend is so strong so that we announce additional 100 billion investment in Arizona. How many fabs many. So actually let me say that it probably additional four more fabs will be built and that's combining front and back end. Yes, OK, thank you.
Charlie Chan
We have Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley. We'll go left, middle, right from where I sit. Thank you. And since we're taking my question. Good afternoon. So first of all, so Congress for a very strong outlook. My first question is really about the foundry competition. I understand that there's no shortcut for a newcomer like Terra Fed, but how about like Samsung Foundry, right?
They got a huge profit from memory business, Intel got AUS policy support. So I'm not sure how TCC is going to address those competition because apparently several US commerce are engaging with those industry peers. And recently actually yesterday ISM has just announced to expand the EUV capacity for 2028 with decency worry that your competitors to take more slots and build the large capacity in the future to compete with you, you know, leading edge business. Thank you.
CC Wei
Let me say that, yes, one of my competitors in South Korea, they make a huge amount of money and I'm jealous about it. And then the other one in the US, they got a very strong U.S. government support. We also got the government support, by the way, although we don't announce it.
However, let me share with you, as we said, there is no shortcut. What does that mean? Meaning that in this semiconductor industry you have to go back to fundamental you know, governments are here is welcome really we also appreciate that a lot of money of course that's nice to have.
But the most important thing as we continue to say is a technology manufacturing and customer trust. These three fundamental never change for my 30 some 40 years of career it always the most important thing and that always the TSMC's secret recipe to win the business.
So from my from the competition point of view, choosing a technology, ramping it up is not buying a milk from 7:11. Well, I'm using that I'm I'm I'm quoting the sentence for my customer. Anyway, they say that you choosing a kind of technology partner, it's no shortcut.
You need to understand the technology, you need to really utilize it using the test sheet and then something and work together and then prepare the capacity and ramp it up. That's what I say. It takes about five years. It's not that today using this milk, it's better you go to the next store. So 711 you don't like it, you go to another store. No.
So that's my answer, Charlie is is agree. Yeah. So hope you can buy more milk so other people can get it. Thank you. Yeah.
Charlie Chan
So let me switch gear to a more exciting side. Sissy just said you you see a very strong signal from customers, customers. You also revise out the full year guide. Are you ready to revise out the five year real kegger, especially this AI semi kegger? I remember it was like high 50%.
But here comes the question, right, that agenda AI demands so strong CPU is a a great opportunity for TSNC. But how about there's a kind of memory cost increase, right? It's kind of a big chunk of of the this kind of AI cap pack. So what's the update of the AI Simi Kegger and how should we look at the contents if there's an AIC me related to TSMC's growth? Thank you.
CC Wei
Charlie, if you read our message that we continue to invest more, we increase the KPS with a good reason. So if you asking about the AIS caker, let me give you a not a number, but it's stronger and stronger and stronger. So we don't give you the number today because of we continue to increase. So we don't know that how to answer this question, but stronger than what we said before. OK, OK, great. Thank you.
Arthur
All right, let's move to this side. Maybe we'll take the question from Arthur from Macquarie. Hi. First, Congrats on the strong execution and performance. My question is regarding the new advanced packaging technology. We noticed that especially the EMIDT is gaining the traction. So how will TSMC react this request?
CC Wei
Well, let me say that our packaging capacity is so tight that now is a little bit of my customers growth. So we welcome that additional flexibility in the market and so that will help TSMC's, you know from your way for business scores, which is a majority part of TSMC's of business.
The technology looks good, according to the newspaper, and we hope they will be successful. And so that share some of the loading from TSMC today, we're working very hard to shorten the gap between the demand and the capacity. And so as I said, we welcome have this additional alternative and so the flexibility for my customer. Thank you that make a lot of sense.
Arthur
So the follow up, so this is a new technology, right. So if your clients they ask your support and our value is support our customers success, right. How TSMT will handle this special request?
CC Wei
Let me answer the question. Our number one is to support our customers a success. So whatever that we can help our customers, the business we want to win. Is that answer your question? OK, let's come back. We'll take one more here and then we'll go online and then back to the room go. Yeah, yeah.
Gokul
Hi. Thanks. Is Ian and Jeff. First question on maybe since you're not wanting to give a longer term numerical guidance, could you talk a little bit about the philosophy of how you are expanding capacity? Obviously customer feedback, customers, customers feedback is important. Do you also consider competitive pressure?
Because as a outright market leader, having like undersupply for a very long period of time is not really desirable for TSMC, right? You probably want a market which is more balanced. So when you think about your capacity expansion, like how long do you think it takes to fulfill the demand as you see right now, that's one.
And 2nd chips obviously is the current shortage, but there is also a lot of discussion about data center delay power capacity being available. So could you also share some thoughts on how you are layering in that? Kind of concerns because you don't want your chips to be available but having to wait for the data center deployment to happen. So just to understand how that goes into your planning framework as well. Thank you.
CC Wei
Cuckoo, that's a good question. Definitely every time when we think about the business, we consider the competition. That's our number one. And then we look at where we are and then we decide to bottom up and then top down assessment of those that demand. Those are the typical thing, I mean in our daily life.
So we make a lot of judgment and then we be more careful. We talk to customer and customers and customer. Those are the CSPS and then we get all the input for the demand and then we make a judgment. Now remember that I believe every customer tell me the truth. Everyone you put all the truth together is not a truth. So we have to make some of the judgment. You know what I mean?
You know, since you are loving because all the customer are very aggressive, right, That's the CEO's job. CEO got to be aggressive. So they give me the number of their demand and I believe they're they try their best to tell me the truth. So I put all together, all the truth together is not a truth. Mark down that word.
So, yes, we do a very careful judgment, might not be correct, may not be correct, but we did carefully and because this is a big money, right this year we say we increase the KPL from 60 from 52 to 56, now 60 to 64 and you bet and to work continue to increase, it's a big money. So we do it carefully.
So we did all the assessment and that lead to your second question, are we sure that we deliver the chips to our customer and they were not put into inventory. So we actually we are checking the AI data center's of progress, the building, the location, the demand, the rest. We check in all that to make sure that TSMC's chips will not be put in inventory. That answer your question.
Gokul
Yeah, that's clear. So CC, so do you, do you still believe even end of next year we are still going to be running short of supply even with this elevated capacity build out plans?
CC Wei
You want me to give you a guarantee, right. Let me say that I believe from this day on all the way to probably 20292030, the demand is very shrunk. Whether in between there's a deep or not, I'm not very sure. But the trend is so robust that I believe we are witnessing a kind of a new industry.
I would like to say the new industry called AI industry, which is so common in our daily life because you're going to affect our automotive, affected the human noise robot and also impact to all the industry. So by the amount of money we put in, I mean including all the CSPS, this is a Dome is a very important new industry to the world.
And so the demand will be there and the fundamental thing is semiconductor chips and most of them in TSMC. Thanks, easy.
Gokul
My second question is on your profitability. So CCU joked that you are definitely jealous of your memory competitor on their margins. But it definitely feels like profitability wise longer term foundry especially leading edge foundry should be higher than memory looking at number of competitors out there.
So as you are investing for a lot of your customers, how is that discussion going because you are no longer the most profitable semiconductor manufacturing company at this point in time. So you probably have less pressure in terms of passing on your value and capturing your value right now compared to maybe one year back.
CC Wei
Yeah, Goku, your question is actually simple. You know what is the people pricing strategy for TSMC and what kind of gross margin we should have. The higher the better of course, but we are a partner, a partner meaning that I say many times our customer got to be successful. I don't want to squeeze them out from the market.
And besides we are very trustable company with our customers. So we don't suddenly increase our price by which I like to have 4X or 5X. You know, it's you cannot survive for that kind of for your customer to survive for that kind of a price increase.
So we earn our value and we make sure that our profit, our gross margin is enough for our long term sustaining expansion. That's to the benefit of my customer in TSMC also. That's our philosophy. So yes, I'm really jealous about the Memory Company's 86% gross margin 8668. I'll be happy. But all right, anyway, so I answered the question. We are very trustable. Thank you.
Operator
OK, thank you. Operator, can we take the next two questions from participants on the line please? Yes, Now it's Jim Fontanelli from Arity.
Jim Fontanelli
Yeah, thank you. Thank you. So can I ask, can I ask about the risk that you see around customer concentration as AI demand continues to significantly outgrow other end markets? You know, your exposure to your top five customers is becoming meaningfully larger than at any point in your history. So I just like to understand how you see that risk.
CC Wei
No, that's not our concern. Besides what you say, the customers have grown bigger and bigger. We are very happy about it and some of the customers also growing very fast. So it's not the gym, it's not what you say to that the bigger customer is going bigger and bigger. No, I mean that's a there's a lot of new player in the AI industry. Do you have a second question?
Jim Fontanelli
Thank you. And yes, so we we're seeing your direct customers put capital into both financing, investing and investing in in AI demand. Is that something that TSMC is considering?
CC Wei
To answer, Jim, to answer your question directly, every company has a different consideration. And every company has a different strategy. So far, no, TSMC don't do this kind of financial arrangement because of we think we're working with current customer with the current model smoothly and also successfully. OK, thank you.
Operator
Operator, can we move on to the next participant on the line then we'll come back to the floor.
Matthew Hussaini
I just want to have a question. Matthew Hussaini, it's IG. Yes, thanks for taking my question to from my end. Welcome back to the 100 billion investment in US. Is there any way you can give us some timeline over the next three years, five years? How should we think about the progression of these 100 billion investment in USI don't have a follow up.
CC Wei
We do have a plan, but let me share with you actually the progress or the schedule most of the time depend on the market situation and our customers demand. So if you ask me to give you a form schedule or no, we don't have it today, but we do. We have a plan and we speed it up. We try to speed it up as fast as possible.
So the message is you're flexible, but also you're expediting the lesbian US. Is that correct? So his, well, I think it's easy. So we're trying to move as fast as we can, but everything is based on our customer needs. Yeah, we also moving the the new fabs and the facilities in Taiwan as fast as possible.
And the same thing we tried to bring up a new fab in the Japan as fast as possible because of the situation today is the demand and the supply. The gap is so big. So we are working very hard to narrow the back to the gap. Do you have a?
Matthew Hussaini
As follow. Actually I wanted dive into the. A compute part of an HPC. And I want to ask you about the networking switches. And in that context, when should we expect the code platform to have a material contribution to your top, your top line?
CC Wei
We start the production right now and it won't be ramped up as time goes by. I think the AI data center need to lower down the power consumption and they increase the bandwidth of the communication channel. So I believe the coup will continue to increase the demand and then will become a fairly important technology in the next few years. OK, thank you.
Laura Chen
Let's come back to the floor. We'll take the next question from Citibank. Laura Chen, thank you. Thank you very much for taking my questions. My first question is also about very promising outlook as TSMC raised the CapEx and also the growth outlook for this year in particularly I think City you mentioned about the agentic AI and the CPU growth potential, but can you give us more update among that AI different kind of a chips between GPU accelerators or CPU you when you see the the growth potential and your visibility? Thank you.
CC Wei
Laura, I, I don't think I can give you a very specific number, but let me share with you. All of them are in TSMC and they're also using the same kind of leading edge technologies. We working with our customer to locate the wafer, the supply to balance the CPUGPUXP use ratio. OK, OK, thank you. That that's yeah, that makes sense.
Laura Chen
And then my second question is also about the advanced packaging. We know that during the symposium, TSMC previously already announced 14 times radical COAS road map to enable larger AI packaging. But the same times we also noted that TSMC maybe last month in Japan, you show the substrate developments for COAS to enable some of the glass technology.
So I'm just wondering if you can give us more like technologies progress update on the difference kind of a technology for glass core or glass subtrees or glass carrier. What's the progress at TSMC right now? Thank you.
CC Wei
Let me say that today is the majority still cores, right. And we are developing that alternative try to lower down the cost and we also work with substrate vendor so that our customer can have their product be in the market. The progress we're building a pattern line that's I announced a few quarters ago. And you know what takes about another one year to be mature so we can put it into the production with our customer. OK, thank you.
Haas
Thank you. Let's move to this side of the room. Bank of America hospital. Sorry. Yes, thanks, CC, Wendell and Jeff for taking my questions and Congrats on the great results. My first question is regarding your CapEx and sales. You gave pretty solid CapEx outlook for this year and also said the CapEx outlook in the next couple of years Will. Continue to be pretty significant and you also raised this year at 40% plus.
So we should be able to provide your next couple of years sales growth outlook, try to quantify it. And relatedly, I think also on that topic is whether you can just try to break down which part of the demand you are seeing as the key driver for you to raise your key packs. And also for this year's demand, is it still mostly driven by cloud computing or it is proliferating to edge computing or to some extent is it also related to to your equipment supply chain is raising their price as well? Thank you.
CC Wei
Let me answer that question because of the revenue corresponding to our investment, right, Because we know we forecast our demand and then we make an assessment and then we do the KPS. Next few years is going to be a very good business for TSMC, that all I can say. And then the other part, so what's the key driver is it cloud AI? Is it edge AI? Is it because tool vendors are increasing the price? It's all AI related. Everything OK? Yeah, you have a quick follow up.
Haas
Yes, I think it is more on your long term strategy because a lot of people have actually been asking about your CapEx and also competition on the front end. But I would actually say that if on the back end competition is rising, especially coming from Intel MMT, are you worried that your value add for the your overall foundry business across front end and fixing to the back end packaging business, the value add could actually be cannibalized with green competition?
CC Wei
Maybe answer that the front end wafer business and the back ends of business are two different things, right. If they are the same, then you can expect ASE become the front end competitor also. It's two different, two different thing. And I also say that since our capacity in the back end is so in shortage mode, the gap is bigger.
And so I welcome that the competitor offers some of the flexibility to my customer so that the Alfonian waiver can be put into the package and that here TSMCS of Rongan wafer business, that's our attitude. OK, thank you.
Operator
Thank you, operator. Let's take one more from the online and then we'll wrap up with back in person.
Robert Sanders
Next one to ask question, Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank. Yeah, thanks for taking my question. You recently stated that high NA tools are too expensive, but could you please discuss how your customers are considering the impact of dye stitching challenges from a smaller field size with high NA? Could that actually slow the adoption of high NA even if the tech improves or the tech gets more productive? And I have, thanks.
CC Wei
You got a very detailed understanding of the high NA. Today's a few sizes only 1/2 and we put our run into our consideration of the manufacturing cost and something again, let me answer this question quickly. We whether we use a high end A or not actually 1 high NA is a very good tool. Let's assume that all right, we understand it's a very high, high performance, but then TSMC make it clear that we work with is a mural.
And try to make it more suitable for manufacturing in terms of the cost and in terms of the maturity. So we always consider that technology maturity and the cost and whether we use it or not. OK, OK. Thank you. CC, do you have a second question, Robert?
Robert Sanders
Yeah, just just a quick, just a quick follow up. I think all of us on this call are assuming that the unconstrained demand for three nanometer below it's sort of 30 to 50% above. The your ability to supply is it, is it in fact much larger than 30 to 50% above this? The field like it might be based on what you're saying because I think all of us are assuming it sort of solvable over the next 3-4 years, but it sounds like the number could be much larger. Thank you.
CC Wei
No, we don't have a number to share because of let me say that the gap is repeat, sorry, I don't want to make a comment on the memory, but a very big gap. OK, we have about 9 minutes left. We'll come back to the floor with any question. Let's take one from here.
Evelyn
Evelyn, you from Goldman, thank you for taking my question because we mentioned a lot on that we're going to step up our capacity growth. But I'm just trying to quantify here because I noticed that during on symposium that you actually mentioned about two nanometer family capacity growth will be growing at around 17% Kager from 26 to 28 and N3 plus and five to grow by 25 Kager from 20 to 27.
So I was just wondering are those numbers still right assumptions today? Are we seeing actually any changes over the past quarter and how should we compare with the non supporting demand out there?
CC Wei
Did we say that in technology Symposium? Oh, we show the charter. OK, now is a bigger. That's all I say. Do you have a second question?
Evelyn
OK, thank you. Very good direction. All right. My other questions touched based on the advanced packaging side because you always bundle the advanced packaging cutbacks together with test testing, mass making and others. That's around 10 to 20% of total cutbacks. And so one thing I'm trying to figure it out here is that how much of that actually goes to advanced packaging alone
And because given that advanced packaging is capital intensive, a less capital intensive versus front end. So how should we think I would think about a gap between its pricing revenue share and its CapEx share over the next few years And well, I think finally is that as it becomes more important, how should we think of maybe you should consider breaking it out as a separate CapEx item going forward?
CC Wei
Let me say that we are, we try very hard to make sure that our CapEx number is correct. But with the flexibility between the front end and the back end, sometimes we have a bottleneck. So we put more money to buy the bottleneck tools and sometimes they either is a in the front end, sometimes is in the back.
But in the ballpark the percentage is just like a window share with everybody for long term. I mean that's a big end is about 10 to 20 or that's a big range anyway. So that's we all I can say is that still 10 to 20 because of as I said, actually I'm very honest to tell you that as time goes by some of the customers of product did more tester.
You cannot believe that, I mean, so the test in shortages. So we had to put the more CapEx in the tester or in the packaging or in other areas. So that's why we we cannot worry specifically say which area we put how much of the CapEx that's too specific. Yeah, OK.
Felix Penn
Will the the last participant KGI Felix Penn thank you for being patient. Hello, good afternoon Things. Taking my question, So my first question is regarding to the CapEx revision. So from year today, so TSNC raise the CapEx guidance by almost 10, yeah, 10 billion U.S. dollars.
So can you give me some color where is the upside from how you guys see the different from six months ago? Is that from like CPU accelerator or memory companionship or back end code was expansion just the upside How, how, how, how we see things differently from six months ago?
CC Wei
Simply put, the most important reason is because of a demand continue to increase and we fail the pressure from the customer to drive TSMC, not drive actually to cooperate with TSMC for the capacity increase. That's one of the major reason. The second reason is inflation. Now we buy the tools with inflation price. OK. You, you understand what I say. OK, thank you.
Felix Penn
So my second question is about the other mature nodes. So people always focus on AI leading notes, but it seems like mature nodes also seen the very strong demand recovery and also some supply issue as well. So how you guys see the demand supply dynamic and pricing and for the mature node, because apparently there's some impact from the AI crowning our effect, but mature node still largely, you know depends on the the consumer demand.
So consumer demand so weak. So how how you guys see the demand supply dynamic for mature node? Thanks.
CC Wei
Actually the mature node cover a lot of a different segment. Only the one with related to AI is a shortage which is the most important one is the number 1 is a power management IC because of all the AI data center need a lot of power management and those are the mature known technology like a .1 day micro 19 nanometer or something like that. Those are in shortage definitely.
And also the sensor portion because of a you need a lot of sensor to detect the environmental information and put it into the AI data center to analyze it. Other than that other area, just like you pointed out, the consumer product is not in a high demand and so other segment is not so strong demand. And as I pointed out in my statement, other areas. Yeah. No, it's not so much of say in a lot of shortage, not at all. OK, thank you.
Jeff SU
Thank you, CC Thank you, Wendell. Thank you, everyone. This does conclude our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the call, a conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now and both are going to be available through our website again@triplew.tsmc.com.
If some of you were not able to ask you a question, please feel free to reach out to TSMC IR and we will follow up with you. So thank you everyone for joining today. We hope everyone continues to stay well. Have a good summer, and we hope you'll join us again next quarter. Thank you and have a good day.
Details at Taiwan Semiconductor IR
Tips: The content presented above were generated by AI language model with publicly available information and auto-generated subtitles from third-party. The above material does not represent the position of Futu and shall not constitute any investment advice. Futu makes no express or implied warranties or representations regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information shown in the above content.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
Comments (1333)
to post a comment
830
17