ASML Holding and Taiwan Semiconductor both reported strong earnings—when will the semiconductor sell
阿斯麥2026财年Q2業績直播
Key Takeaways (AI-Generated)
Financial Performance
- Q2 2026 total net sales reached €9.3 billion with net income of €2.9 billion (31.3% of sales)
- EPS of €7.59 with R&D expenses at €1.3 billion and SG&A at €0.3 billion
- Free cash flow of €1.3 billion in Q2, cash and short-term investments at €7.6 billion
- Advanced logic foundry net system sales expected to grow over 25% in 2026
Business Highlights
- Planning to ship around 65 low NA EUV systems in 2026, over 45% year-over-year growth
- Intel Foundry using ASML high NA EUV technology on Intel 18A process node production
- Expecting about 130 immersion DUV shipments in 2026, similar to 2025 levels
- Strong demand across advanced logic and DRAM segments driving capacity expansion
Financial Guidance
- Updated full year 2026 guidance: total net sales between €43-45 billion, gross margin 54-56%
- Q3 2026 guidance: total net sales between €11-12 billion, gross margin 55-57%
- Planning 30% capacity increase for low NA EUV in 2027 (approximately 85 tools)
- First quarterly interim dividend for 2026 of €1.88 per share payable August 5th
Opportunities
- Strong AI-related demand driving expansion in advanced logic and DRAM segments
- High NA EUV technology progressing toward production readiness with Intel milestone achievement
- Optimizing existing clean room space and manufacturing processes to increase output capacity
- Working closely with supply chain partners to accelerate system output
Full Transcript (AI-Generated)
Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call on July 15th, 2026. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker's introduction, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session you will need to press *1 and one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press *1 and one again, please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Jim Kavanaugh. Please go ahead.
Jim Kavanaugh
Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Jim Kavanaugh, Head of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML CEO, Christophe Bouquet and our CFO, Roger Dassett. The subject of today's call is ASML 2026 Second quarter Results. The length of the call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet on www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.
Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at www.asml.com and on Asml's annual report on the Form 20F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Christopher K for a brief introduction.
Christophe Bouquet
Thank you, Jim. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2026 Reserves conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter 2026 reserves as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.
Roger Dassett
Thank you, Christophe, and welcome everyone. I will first review the second quarter 2026 financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the third quarter and the full year of 2026. Let me start with our second quarter accomplishments. In the second quarter of 2026, total net sales were €9.3 billion, primary in R&D expenses came in at €1.3 billion and SG and A expenses came in at around €0.3 billion. The effective tax rate for Q2 was 17.5%. For the full year 2026, we expected annualized effective tax rate is around 17%. Net income in Q2 was €2.9 billion, representing 31.3% of total net sales, resulting in earnings per share of 7.59 euros.
Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short term investments at a level of €7.6 billion. Our free cash flow in Q2 was €1.3 billion. Moving to a cash return to our shareholders in Q2, ASML paid the final dividend over 2025 of 2.70 per ordinary share. Together with the three interim dividends paid in 2025 and 2026, this resulted in a total dividend for 2025 of seven point €50 per ordinary share. In the second quarter, we purchased around €1.1 billion worth of shares. Under the current 2026-2028 share buyback program, the first quarterly interim dividend over 2026 will be 1.88 euro per ordinary share and will be made payable on August 5th, 2026.
With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2026. We expect Q3 total net sales to be between 11 billion and €12 billion. We expect our Q3 installed base management sales to be around €2.9 billion. Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be between 55 and 57%. The expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around €1.2 billion and SG&A is expected to be around €0.4 billion. Driven by continued strong demand, we are updating our full year 2026 guidance. We now expect total net sales between 43 and 45 billion with a gross margin between 54% and 56% billion numbers in euros.
With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe.
Christophe Bouquet
Thank you, Roger. I will now provide some additional details on the dynamics that prompted us to raise our guidance for the full year. The combination of continued strong momentum in customer demand and our ability to respond to that by driving higher output with strength in our supply chain, our manufacturing and our install teams in the field are the primary drivers of our improved guidance. Strong end market demand this year has motivated our customers to aggressively add capacity on their leading nodes. A number of our customer have revised their capital expenditure plans upward for the year and our ability to increase output has allowed us to meet their request for additional lithography system.
The dynamics are very similar in both advanced logic and DRAM and the plans to build up capacity are equally aggressive. Our customer in both segments are entering into long term agreements with their customer providing them with longer term visibility and the confidence to add significant capacity to support demand. In logic, there is a continued investment not only to enable the expansion of three nanometer capacity in support of the latest generation of AI accelerators, but also at both the five nanometer and the four nanometer nodes to support the diverse set of chips required by AI product.
At the same time, the two nanometer node continues to ramp rapidly to support next generation HPC and mobile applications and our customer are already planning investment to support the development of the 1.4 nanometer node. These dynamics in the logic segments are driving both an increase in litho intensity and greater demand for advanced lithography. We now expect advanced logic foundry related net system sales to grow over 25% this year.
In DRAM, the supply challenges driving up both DDR and HBM prices have prompted significant investments in fab expansion. Our customer are adding meaningful capacity this year, while at the same time they plan further capacity expansion as indicated by the plans to build multiple megafabs. This addition will come online in phases over the coming years. In addition, DRAM lithography intensity is increasing as customers migrate to advanced nodes. This includes both EUV and DUV immersion with EUV low NA growth driven by the increased replacement of multi patterning with more cost effective single exposed EUV. As a result, we anticipate our memory related net system sales to grow by over 75% this year.
I will now turn it back over to Roger to provide details on what that means for the different parts of our business and our plans to support this growing demand.
Roger Dassett
Thanks. First off, starting first with our EUV business, we now expect to ship around 65 low NA EUV systems this year resulting in year over year EUV net system sales growth of over 45%. The demand is being fueled by very strong momentum in both DRAM and advanced logic. Moving to the DUV business, for immersion DUV, we expect about 130 shipments this year, which is similar to the output level of these systems in 2025. This year we have worked closely together with our supply chain partners to re accelerate our output of these systems. Shipments of dry DUV systems have also increased markedly this year.
Further, greater process control intensity at advanced nodes has led to major traction when it comes to adoption of optical and e-beam metrology products across all key customers. Given these trends in our DUV metrology and inspection business, we expect growth in non EUV net system sales of around 25% this year. Installed base management sales are expected to grow over 30% this year driven by service revenue from our expanding EUV installed base and customer demand for performance and productivity upgrades to support their increasing capacity requirements.
Turning to our China related business, we continue to expect this to make up around 20% of our total net sales for the full year as it increases in line with the overall business, mainly related to an increased demand in mainstream logic. With regard to our capacity plan, we are continuing to have very constructive conversations with our customers to better understand their demand for our systems beyond 2026. With increasing visibility through their customer plans, our customers have been able to share forecasts with us that extend out multiple years. You see this heightened visibility reflected in order momentum that has remained extremely strong through the first half of the year.
As a result, our backlog continues to increase with a broad mix of customers. For 2027, we are now close to being fully covered with orders for low NA EUV and we are planning to increase our low NA EUV capacity by around 30%. Looking ahead to 2028, we have already received a significant number of low NA EUV orders. Strong demand forecasts from our customers have led us to investigate a further 30% capacity increase for that year. Similarly for our immersion systems, we intend to increase capacity by 30% in 2027 and are investigating a potential further 30% expansion for 2028.
With that, I would like to turn it back over to Christophe.
Christophe Bouquet
Thank you, Roger. Turning to our technology road map, we see high NA EUV continue to make good progress. We are continuing to work very closely with our customers to prove the value of high NA technology for their process technology roadmaps. In parallel, the maturity of the platform is improving towards the level required for insertion into a high volume manufacturing. We are also very pleased to announce in a press release earlier today that Intel Foundry is using ASML high NA EUV technology on the Intel 18A process node to produce a subset of its Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processor. These milestones marks an important step in demonstrating high NA EUV readiness in the production environment.
To conclude, customer demand remains very strong with visibility now extending several years into the future. We have responded effectively to the increasing demand and we'll continue investing to ensure our capacity and capability remains aligned with our customer needs. We also see that the rapid growth of AI related demand in advanced logic and DRAM is accelerating the move toward more advanced lithography solution and increasing lithography intensity. At our next Capital Market Day, which will be held on June 10th, 2027, we will update our longer term views to reflect the market and technology dynamics since our last capital Market Day. I look forward to seeing many of our investors there.
With that, we will be happy to take your question.
Jim Kavanaugh
Thank you, Roger, and thank you, Christophe. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session beforehand. I would like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with 1 short follow up if necessary. This will allow us to get through as many callers as possible. Now operator, can we have your final instructions and then the first question please?
Operator
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press *1 and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press *1 and one again. We will now go to the first question. One moment, please. And your first question today comes from the line of Francois Beauvignier from UBS. Please go ahead.
Francois Beauvignier
Thank you very much. My first question maybe is ASML has often described it's pricing approach as being based on the value delivered to customers, although of course by definition that requires assumptions about the economic benefits the customers can extract from your tools. So with that in mind, I just wanted to revisit, you know, TSMC recent comments on high NA systems being too expensive. One interpretation could be that customers are finding more value in the low NA than maybe we previously expected, particularly if they can do some triple patterning at, you know, competitive cost versus high NA.
So my question is, is there any scope for pricing adjustments for low NA over time to ensure that the system pricing remains aligned with the incremental value customers, I mean the incremental value you give to customers, if that makes sense.
Christophe Bouquet
Well, I think first I think I understand maybe the question of the connection between the high NA and the low NA. So let me start with high NA discussed that in the past and you know every new generation of lithography system ASML brought to market was with a strong intention to reduce the cost of patterning. So when you look at high NA single exposed the design of the tool, the performance of the tool will be such that it provided cost benefit to our customer. Now of course to reach that point, you need to have the right maturity of the platform. I just mentioned that we are still basically working in bringing the high NA platform to the level of maturity of low NA.
And you know when you achieve that, this is practically the time where the cost of high NA is going basically to provide an advantage versus the existing technology. So I think that logic is still true and again get implemented when the platform reached the right maturity. Therefore, I think there's no real need to maybe look at one tool price versus the other because that logic I think was also true for low NA. If you remember our discussion back in 2018, nineteen. I think the key again for high NA to be cost effective to beat the cost of low NA plus immersion multi patterning is to bring high NA to the right maturity.
And you know in that sense we are very happy with the press release this morning about Intel because this is I would say maybe the strongest sign so far that we're getting there. So there is no function of low NA pricing.
Roger Dassett
Yeah, sorry, go ahead. So I, I would say Francois in addition to that, when it comes to low NA pricing, of course, you know that, you know, we keep on increasing the productivity of the low NA tool. So that of course that gives us a pretty strong runway for potential price improvements going forward. And you're right, I mean, value based pricing is the concept that we follow with ASML. And you're also right that in the current environment, of course, you know, the value for a customer is higher than in other circumstances.
So I would agree with you that the current environment, you know, provides more flexibility for pricing than what you would have had in different days. Of course, you would also appreciate given the long order lead times that we have that doesn't translate into pricing effects tomorrow. But clearly, you know, the environment that we live in today with the value that our products bring to customer is substantial, of course gives us flexibility on pricing more so than what you would have seen in the past and of course we're executing on that as well.
Francois Beauvignier
When could that happen? I mean to your point, it's not tomorrow after tomorrow. So when, when is it?
Roger Dassett
But that really depends, that really depends on the order situation that you have with customers. As I said, it's obviously linked to order lead time. So and of course that varies from one to the other. But you know, the dynamic is clearly there.
Francois Beauvignier
OK. And maybe the follow up quick one is on the 100, I mean the 30% increase in 28, which implies 110 tools. And I mean Christophe, you mentioned investigating the world is precise. Do you need a new clean room for that or are you contemplating maybe to add clean room to ASML capabilities?
Christophe Bouquet
I think all the capacity increased either plan or investigated. We're talking about our based on our existing footprints. So we are, we have been working extremely hard as you may have noticed in the last 6-9 months to increase our output. We'll continue to work very hard in the next few months to do the same. And number we are mentioning we can achieve basically by optimizing the existing clean room space in the right way. So this is also why we can create basically that improvement on the short term.
Francois Beauvignier
Great, Thank you both.
Christophe Bouquet
You're welcome.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Joe Kotraki from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Joe Kotraki
Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. You noted that you're close to receiving all the orders and needs for 2027 to be covered on low NA and you're increasing the capacity obviously by, you know 30%. So I guess the question is, is the implied kind of 85 tools for next year, is that the ceiling of what you can think you can support and your supply chain can support next year or it sounds like maybe the existing footprint could can support more. Is there a possibility that that could move, you know, higher as we move closer to 2027?
Roger Dassett
Joe, it's the balance as we see it today, the balance between demand and supply as we see it today gets us to the 30% right. So that's the way we do it. If customers are going to come to ASML and say ASML, we need considerably more than just as we've been doing it in the past couple of months. You know, we need to look ourselves in the eye. We need to look at all the supply chain and just see what can further be done. But at this stage, given the conversations we have, we think the 85 is a nice representation of the balance between what customers are asking of us and what at this stage we've been asking ourselves in the supply chain to do.
But if more is needed, you know, just as we've done it in the past couple of quarters, we're going to roll up our sleeves and see if more can be done.
Christophe Bouquet
And maybe Joe, to add to that back to Francois' question. So, you know, I explained that 2 * 30% is based on our existing footprint. So the question basically is really the speed at which we need to execute to support the customer demand and potentially at some point we can execute. But on that part as you have noticed in the last few months, we have been very successful. So we have the space we have I would say the recipe to get to those number. And as I said, we will continue to both stay In Sync with our customer, ask them what they need and continue to work very hard on output.
And you know, the first mission of ASML is to provide their customer what they need basically.
Roger Dassett
And Joe, it's a bit to further build on that. We should also remind ourselves that we shouldn't just be looking at unit percent increases, right? So we're looking at 30%, which is, you know, boxes if you like, so 30% more tools. But you should also recognize that the tool mix that we're going to ship next year is a different tool mix from the tool mix that we ship this year. So when it comes to EUV in particular, right, the tool mix that we're going to ship next year will be E's and F's, while this year it's a combination of D's and E's.
And if you recognize the difference in output, then in essence, what you're looking at is not 30% improvement of wafer capacity that we're adding, but approximately 45%. And in addition to that, as you also know, you know, we're offering a whole slew of upgrade packages to the install base to customers, which gives them another significant uptake. So it's in the combination of improving the number of the capacity that we have internally to crank out unit numbers and the productivity of the tools and the upgrades of the installed base.
And in that combination, as Christophe said, we think you know that we're very successful in meeting the objectives and in advance of our customers.
Joe Kotraki
That's really helpful, Colin. I appreciate all the detail. Maybe just as a follow up, you talked about like optimizing the existing clean room space for capacity. Does that change at all what you think you could do from a capacity standpoint for high NA? Can you remind us what high NA capacity is? We're looking into 2728.
Christophe Bouquet
Well, I think for high NA, Joe, we follow the exact same principle, which is to match our supply with our customer demands. So I think, you know, we optimize across all the products. And you know, there's also of course some discussion around high NA, as we mentioned, there's some discussion about insertion. So we keep our show, of course, the flexibility to be able to respond to that when the time comes. So the optimization I was referring to before is really basically across all products.
Now I think everyone understand that of course a lot more is being done to the low NA and the immersion for example than high NA. But we are not sacrificing, I would say any of our high NA supply by doing the rest of the optimization.
Joe Kotraki
Awful. Thank you.
Roger Dassett
You're welcome.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question today comes from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowan. Please go ahead.
Krish Sankar
Yeah, hi, thanks for taking my question. I told them the capacity increased to 85110 units. You are meeting the demand not under shipping. Is that correct? And if so for you to increase, are you waiting for purchase orders from customers before you start adding more capacity? And then I had a follow up.
Christophe Bouquet
Well, I think you know on the first question, I think that as you have noticed in the last few months, I don't think we have reached yet a stable state on what the demand would be for 27 setting up for 28. So we keep on revising. Basically with our customer what that demand is and again the whole goal of our supply is to follow that demand. So you know I would not say that we have done with this discussion. I think you see the dynamic on the market this is still pretty strong.
So this is also you know bringing some of course always tension to make sure that the two number match. But that's again something we'll continue to do. So short answer is yes, the capacity is there to meet the demand, but the demand is still fluctuating. We get nicer visibility for sure for 27, even 28, but we also mostly are not at the end of the discussion with our customer.
Roger Dassett
And clearly, Chris, we're not waiting until we get the orders right because we said we're investigating, you know, the 110 scenario for EUV low NA by 2028. Of course, we don't have orders for 110 EUV low NA at this stage. So we're not waiting. We're pre empting. But we are doing this because the demand signals that we're getting from customers that have not yet translated into full bill, the demand signals we're getting from customers not quite strong. So that's why we're investigating this and preparing as best as we can at this stage.
Krish Sankar
Got you, very helpful. Another quick follow up, it seems like the three nanometer node is actually being a more of a longer and stronger node than people thought. So I would assume that you would still be shipping 3600 D's. But Roger, you mentioned that next year there won't be any D in the mix. So I just want to clarify, is that true? And if so, is it fair to assume that gross margin next year should grow versus this year? Because if you mix it shifting to more volumes of E and eventually F's?
Roger Dassett
Yeah, Krish, at a certain point in time, we're simply sold out when it comes to D models, right. So the D uses a specific optic from Zeiss. And at a certain point in time, we're just done and we expect to be done or maybe virtually done, but done this year. There might be one or two stepping into next year, but essentially we're done with it this year. And then you know from that moment onwards there is no D optic left anymore and therefore will build E's next year.
And of course that mix will come with a better ASP than the mix that we have this year because it also will come with higher productivity as we just laid out and other and also comes with a better gross margin profile. Of course I'm not going to guide you to gross margin for next year, Chris, but it is true that the mix effect on EUV next year will be more positive than it is this year.
Krish Sankar
Thanks a lot, Roger.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Stefan Uri from OW BHS. Please go ahead.
Stefan Uri
Yes, good afternoon. So my question is for 28 where you say you have already large order volumes but not fully booked yet, can you help us understand where you stand in term of visibility out of the 110 you need targeted? Is it how is it covered today? And can you talk about the lead times as we speak? And I have a follow up. Thank you.
Roger Dassett
Well, the fact that we say that we investigate 110, we wouldn't investigate 110 if customers were telling us that would be a ridiculous number, right. So we're investigating this simply because customers are signaling to us that the demand is very strong. But the fact that we now start talking about having significant order intake for 28 already like 2 years in advance is pretty strong, right. So that is something that we haven't that situation we haven't enjoyed in many, many years.
So I think that is a very good underpinning of the strong market dynamics that are currently going on. You know, we're not sharing order intakes, I'm not going to give you the coverage number, but I will tell you that the demand signals that we're getting from customers also when it comes to 28 are sufficiently strong for us to seriously investigate this 110 number and the related number on immersion that we signal to you.
Stefan Uri
Thank you. And about the 75% memory growth in 2026, can you share with us how much is coming from HBM driven lithography intensity versus volume addition IE what I'm trying to know if is also if with these investments you know? The memory manufacturer your clients are kind of closing the gap between offer and demand or just investing in new technologies like HBM. Thank you.
Christophe Bouquet
Well, I think the demand is really a combination of a lot more volume both for HBM and DDR5. Think we have seen some shift between one product to the other recently because the price point of DDR5 think is extremely strong right now. So there's some optimization at our customers. It's hard to know the exact I would say ratio between the two. It doesn't matter that much in terms of technology for us because the DRAM itself is the same. You know, HBM will require more wafer. So there there's a volume effect again. So that's one element.
The second is of course, the number of EUV and immersion layer, which had increased basically on the nodes that are ramping very strongly right now. So that the 1C nodes, for example, which is going to be a enormous node or even 1B are using more EUV layer. So this is really this combination which create to be the perfect storm for ASML on DRAM this year and most probably the next few years to come.
Stefan Uri
OK, thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Didiya Samama from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Didiya Samama
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. So my first question is on 26. When I look at your guidance on units for immersion and EUV as well as your guidance for IBM, you know, I struggled a little bit to get even to the midpoint. So sorry, I'm struggling to not get above the upper end. I apologize. So I'm trying to understand if your ASP's are going higher in Q3Q4 because of your holistically so attach rate on software or is there any mix impact that is a particularly meaningful and associated with it.
When I look at your full your guide on gross margin, you're essentially saying that your gross margin exit rate Q4 is around 56 to 58%, which again would suggest that your mix, your volumes, your software upgrades etcetera are very strong. So just trying to understand what's going on with those ASPs and systems in particular in Q3Q4, you just, it's very hard to validate your number on the phone.
Roger Dassett
But let me tell you that if you look at the guidance that we have provided that of course there is a little bit of a mix effect in there. I would say for EUV, we had quite some D models in the first half and the mix effect will be a bit more positive in the second-half. We'll also have in the second-half, you know, we'll have all the 3800 configurations in there. So that's going to help a little bit on the ASP side for sure. Of course, the immersion number in the second-half will be substantially higher than in the first half.
As you know in the first half immersion was low because you know, we were, we had decided in 2025 we were having Zeiss prep for a substantially lower immersion number that what we're currently facing. So we started the year rather weak. We will make up for that quite substantially in the second-half of the year. So I would say the guidance to get to the guidance you know is there around 65 EUV tools with a slightly better ASP mix of what I just mentioned and of course immersion will be quite strong in there. And of course, you know, the installed base business as I also indicated will grow over 30%.
I think if you take all those elements into the mix, you should be able to get to the midpoint that I just talked about in terms of the gross margin. If you do the analysis and if you take midpoint by midpoint, then I think you're looking for the second-half as at a gross margin of 56% approximately ultimately. So you know, and we guided 55 to 57 for Q3. So you should be looking midpoint at approximately the same number there for Q4.
And why is that? Again, it's the mix because we have quite a bit more immersion and low NA EUV in there 1-2 because we have better priced EUV in there for the second-half. Three, because of the installed base business, which you know remains quite strong. 4 Of course we have volume effect and the fact that we have so much. More volume in the second-half than in the first half. Obviously, it gives you a positive fixed cost coverage. So it's the combination of those 4 as a result of which you see, you know, an improvement of the gross margin in the second-half versus the first half.
Didiya Samama
Yeah, I got it very clear. And if I take the things that you mentioned in previous questions, you know, the mix of EUV tools etcetera, etcetera. Is there any reason why your gross margin should not go higher in fact in 27 than the exit rates of 26? And I guess related to that, any color you can give us on the mix of low NA tools next year, whether you have prominent prominently the E or F tool capturing more than 50% of the value.
Roger Dassett
So you would appreciate I'm not going to give you guidance on the 27th gross margin. But if you look at the main drivers that I just gave you for why the second-half is better than the first half on the mix effect within EUV, of course that should only be better because as I mentioned, you know, in that next year we're going to get a mix of E's and F's. I think it will primarily be E's, there will be a number of F's in there, but the lion's share of the tools next year are going to be E's.
Nonetheless, the mix next year will be better than the mix this year and will be better than the mix even in the second-half of the year. If you look at immersion and EUV, well, given that we're talking about, you know, planning for 30% more immersion, 30% EUV, you know, then I would argue that that shouldn't disappoint, right? If indeed we're able to get those done then clearly our high margins scanner products, you know, with the 30% increase that we just talked about should be positive in there.
The volume effect, of course, the fixed cost coverage you should get that right. If indeed we're going up 30% in those two businesses. And then the swing factor of course is the installed base business, which of course the service component of the installed base business, you know should be strong, right, Because that simply grows with the install base almost by definition, so that part should be strong, and then the question is how strong will the upgrade business be? You know, which in the current climate is very, very strong because customers are looking for productivity.
So in the current market dynamics, you could realistically assume that. So that's a qualitative description of the different components. Again, we're not going to guide gross margin, but you know, if your perspective on 27 is that yet again, that will be a bullish market where customers are looking for a lot of capacity expansion, then you could argue that the drivers of the gross margin that I just gave you should also be strong in the next year.
Didiya Samama
Absolutely. Thank you so much.
Roger Dassett
You're welcome.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Nigel Van Putten from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Nigel Van Putten
All right. Thanks a lot. Got a follow up question on the difference between boxes and productivity, super helpful that you laid that out 30% unit growth, but 45% on the actual productivity that you are shipping to customers now beyond productivity, I think 3800 F is also providing you know overlay improvements. I think in the past those were a little bit more difficult in discussions with customers. But I'm assuming that if you look at, you know, the outlook today and given your previous comments that maybe 45% productivity is really, you know, the lower end of what we should model for revenue in terms of EUV over that. That's my first question.
Roger Dassett
Yeah, I'm not going to guide in any way the business for next year. I think we've said what we wanted to say about what we plan for in next year, and I'm not we're not going to translate that into euro amounts yet. You're I think you're very well capable of putting that into your model.
Nigel Van Putten
No, no percentage. Great. I think you're implying 3800 F's pretty much only in 2028, which makes sense. I mean high productivity. It's just that, you know, given the commentary, I think in the past, it was sort of a straightforward math almost that, you know, productivity gains are shared. I'm just trying to get a better sense of, you know, there's. More than just the productivity in terms of throughput, there's overlay improvements, etc. And just, you know, thinking of that is what we should think about when you say there's more flexibility in pricing,
Roger Dassett
Nigel. The only thing is, of course, we've always been able to show customers not just productivity upgrades, but also the value from better imaging, the value of better overlay, etcetera. And then as you know, we've always shared the value with the customer in an equitable way and in a certain way. And the way that resulted was that you've got this very strong core relation between throughput improvement and ASP, that's just the way things panned out, which, you know, put in another way, customers were paying for the productivity upgrade and the value that we gave them for free was the value associated with, let's say, overlay improvement, imaging quality and what have you.
That's sort of the way things historically panned out. And you know, there's no reason to believe that that's going to be dramatically different other than what we said earlier on, which you know, that in the current environment with the value that we bring, we obviously are also having conversations with customers on how we get rewarded for that additional value.
Nigel Van Putten
Very clear. Maybe a quick follow up on installed base. Thank you for quantifying the outlook for the year. It certainly feels like another upgrade and this business, I think it's been trending better for a while now, also last year. So I mean, we know the productivity increase of the tools very helpful, the data you provide. But what I can kind of is lacking is in terms of some color or which maybe help us with this in terms of the current configurations that you see. As you sort of look at, you know, current fleet configurations at customers, how big is that opportunity in terms of upgrading?
And given there's a strong need from customers to increase the capacity of the tools given limited clean room? Like is there perhaps a plan in place to make this more of a, you know, agreement of sorts in terms of getting, you know, better planned installed base upgrades and some more visibility also for you guys to be able to service that demand?
Christophe Bouquet
Well, I think that you said it. So the key element today is that customer wants to get more capacity on their existing fab as quickly as possible. So this creates really strong condition for system upgrade that's true this year. I think we see that in our number. This will be still true next year and mostly beyond that. So you know the need for capacity on very successful advanced node is there the upgrade product we are developing are covering all the different version of our EUV low NA or immersion system.
So we are really capable basically to provide product to our customer that can be implemented to every single version of our EUV or immersion tool. And today we see a very strong acceptance of those products to the point that you know we're many discussion where we are being requested to try to accelerate that and create new product which we plan to do in 27 and even 28. So I will say, as long as we continue to experience this huge demand existing nodes on the constraints of their existing fab, I think we would expect that the demand for those products will be very strong.
Nigel Van Putten
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We will now take the next question and the question comes from the line of Tammy Ki from Barenberg. Please go ahead.
Tammy Ki
Hi, thank you for taking my question. So the first one is based on my feedback, investors usually compare your growth to the WFE equipment spending growth and based on my understanding they share you have a lot of upgrades because some customers will lack of clean room etcetera. And in 2027 and 28 in theory we are having more clean room coming out of the space. So therefore there will be more Greenfield investment. Do you think you will be therefore in a better position to comparing to WFE comparing to what we are seeing in 2026?
Roger Dassett
Yeah, I mean the sound is not very good. I don't think we understood your question. I apologize. Can you try again maybe make it a bit shorter or so?
Tammy Ki
Yeah, Yeah, sure. Sorry. So basically 2026 has a lot of clean room constraint and 2027 and 28 will be more clean room space based Greenfield expansion. And in my view that puts you in a better position to outgrow WFE or at least grow in line with WFE. Do you think coming into 27 and 28 you'll be able to outgrow or grow more than WFE for your business comparing to 2026.
Roger Dassett
I mean we, as you know, we never comment on WFE. We comment on our own plans on the demand as we see it. And I think we give you all the parameters on our end, what we're working towards and you, I'm sure you have your own expectation of where WFE is going and just compare that. But we think that with the 30% numbers that we just indicated, we think we're attributing to the demand that our customers are having. So yeah, the only little detail I will stress again, maybe to help you is when it comes to advanced DRAM, when it comes to advanced logic, we see our litho intensity increase.
So the demand for more EUV for more immersion. So maybe that helps you a bit to answer the question. Every time you convert multi patterning to single exposed EUV, for example, there is a shift of course from, you know, non litho to litho. So I think that's maybe one element to help you in your calculations.
Tammy Ki
OK, thank you. And the second question is on high NA. So for the time being, Intel seems to be the main high NA customer for logic and we've been hearing more from DRAM customers. Do you think there is a chance that DRAM group will be a bigger customer for high NA earlier than logic?
Christophe Bouquet
Well, you know, I don't know if they will be bigger or not. I think what we see is of course that both technologies are qualifying high NA today. So you know, we talked about Intel today. I think you know that Intel was first to get the technology. So they're first implemented in production as we speak. There is a lot of work done to qualify, you know the technology on product wafer. So the opportunity for DRAM is significant also because the you know, the volume is also significant, but there's no real change there.
I think we still see both logic and DRAM being a good candidate for high NA the reason for that is both DRAM and advanced logic will be shifting one more towards multi patterning low NA over time. That's applied to both basically.
Tammy Ki
OK, thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Next question today comes from the line of Chris Cafe from Wolf Research. Please go ahead.
Chris Cafe
Yes, thank you. Good morning. The first question is about the capacity additions and basically how long does it take to affect the capacity additions. If you were to take a decision, you know, now to add more capacity, when would that capacity be effective for shipment? And if you can go through some of the steps that you would need to take, I suppose that would suppose that the supply chain would be a big part of any decisions to add capacity.
Roger Dassett
Yeah, it's Chris, it's a combination, right. So we have as Christophe said, obviously we're doing work here. So you know what we're freeing up clean room. So making sure that clean rooms are fully dedicated to output right now we will to have prototypes and R&D tools in clean room. So finding another hole for those tools such that all the clean rooms that we have here are fully dedicated to output. We're looking at reducing cycle time. So those are the key things that we're doing here within ASML.
And of course, we're working with our supply chain to in essence, you know, to make sure that they do the same thing as Christophe said, they've made as we did, they've made big investments in the past and what we call the long lead time items. So now it's just leveraging those investments from the past and making sure that we get the maximum, you know, out of that capacity. And in terms of how long does it take? Well, you know, I think that the 30% that we talked about gives you a good proxy for that.
You will in essence, you know as we've said before, every year you will see is and with a move rate that is higher of the than the move rate that we enter the year. And so we're continuously building up move rate quarter on quarter. And the end result of the plans as we currently have it is the 30% that we mentioned for next year and the 30% that we're investigating for 2028. So that's the answer I think to the timing questions that you just wrote.
Chris Cafe
Thank you. As a follow up of a question on pricing and a clarification from some of your prior comments. And I think you were very clear about the mix effect of low NA EUV on the higher throughput tools where you get proportionally higher ASPs. Is there also any potential for higher ASP? On a like for like basis. And the reason why I ask is because you are taking steps to add capacity. You know, you're rolling up your sleeves as you say. Would that potentially result in higher like for like ASP as you increase your cost to do what the customers are asking?
Roger Dassett
Well, as I mentioned before, in the current environment where there is, you know, a lot of value for customers for what we bring them, we believe the potential to, you know, to capture a larger share of that value. You know, at least to capture our share of that larger value gives you better pricing power. So that those are the conversations that we're currently having with customers. So as I mentioned, not tomorrow, but over time you should be able to see the improvement there.
Chris Cafe
Understood. Thank you.
Roger Dassett
You're welcome.
Operator
Thank you. Next question today comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna. Please go ahead.
Mehdi Hosseini
Yes, thank you for squeezing me in. I have a two follow up question and this is for the team Christopher Roger. As we think about this migration from E to F which seems to be accelerating the second-half of 27, how are your customers are deciding between upgrading an existing E platform versus purchasing an F system? And I'm asking this question because both of these have a similar configuration. The base system is very much similar and I just want to understand how customers would would prefer upgrade or just go for complete new system purchase. And I have a follow up.
Christophe Bouquet
Well, I think the answer to this question today is very simple. It's really both. So I think that our customer wants to buy the fastest possible tool. This is why we had a pretty fast migration towards the 3800 E I think this has become, you know, today the tool customer really wants and they also want to upgrade existing system because typically they sit on different technologies. So the new tool moving forward you know are going to two nanometer and then we go to 1.4 while a lot of the upgrade will be for the nodes that come before that.
So we are really in the both situation today and you know the appetite for both upgrade but also for faster tool is high. So what will define the transition from E to F is going to be again the maturity of the platform and then our ability to ramp going from E to F. But that's very, I would say, you know, very normal. That's what we have done with the E. But today our customer, I think short answer, they want both and they want as much as both as possible.
Mehdi Hosseini
Let me rephrase the question. Would it be fair to say that F is more geared towards 1.4 or below 2 nanometre and assuming that the two nanometer remains strong, your customers don't want to bring the line down and would prefer to actually purchase a new tool, especially this for below 2 nanometer?
Christophe Bouquet
Well, I think the F will certainly be used for 1.4 nanometer because the timing is matching basically the timing of the F for two nanometer. I think what we also allow between the E&F is to what we call mix and match the product. So when it comes to imaging overlay, the customer wants to see a difference, they will just see a faster tool. So that's also means that when the tool is ready, if there's need for more capacity for two nanometer then the F would definitely be an option as well.
Mehdi Hosseini
OK. And what's the updated assumption for high NA EUV system and Rev recognized this year 2026?
Roger Dassett
You mean the number of tools that we Rev this year we've set 4 to 5, four to five is still revealed for this year?
Mehdi Hosseini
Yeah.
Roger Dassett
Gotcha. Thank you.
Mehdi Hosseini
You're welcome.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question today comes from the line of CJ Muse from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.
CJ Muse
Yeah, good morning, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. Operating leverage has been I think an increasing focus in terms of how you've been talking to the street and we're clearly seeing in the numbers here with top line 35% growth and OpEx you know implicitly growing only about 6%. And so I'm curious, you know, as you think about looking into to 27 and beyond, should we be kind of thinking that this 60% incremental op margin is kind of the target that you're going after and would love to hear your thoughts on that.
Roger Dassett
Yes, CJ, we're not going to quantify that guidance. But you are right that we have been managing our OpEx quite nicely. So SG&A and R&D, you also know that we said that we believe that if we look at the R&D team that we have today, we believe that you know also with the reorganization that we talked about before that we can get even more value out of the team than what we enjoyed so far. So we believe that we with the you know with the current team that we have in R&D, there is a lot of value and a lot of innovation road map that we can still pursue.
So you know, if you contrast the way we've done it in the past, as you know we increase the head count of R&D quite substantially. I would say that today we believe that with the team that we have today, we can really entertain a very aggressive road map going forward. So All in all, I think you will continue to see us manage both R&D and SG and A quite nicely. And as a result of that, the operating leverage that you imply, I think the operating leverage will indeed, you know, become better in the quarters in the years to come.
CJ Muse
Very helpful. And then I guess on your manufacturing footprint, I guess a couple quick questions. Number one, what would it take for you to actually look to add there? And then I guess #2 what's the fungibility around mirrors and other optics between low NA and high NA? And just curious if you are kind of sold out on low NA, does that create the situation where customers, you know, really desperate for supply might adopt high NA sooner? Thanks so much.
Christophe Bouquet
Well, I think maybe starting with the second question, I think that you know, as the maturity of the high NA platform improve, then of course high NA become a potential option also for capacity. And I think that's an option that it will become more and more valued over time because the tool at some point of time will cross this maturity threshold. And if it does, it can do the job and they expend before can even provide some benefits. So I think that's I would say potentially another opportunity moving forward, assuming that we continue the good progress we have seen on maturity.
So one of the reason also our customer are testing the tool on product as you have seen with the press release about Intel today. So that's maybe for the second question.
Roger Dassett
The first question. So in terms of our own footprint, as Christophe said, you know, the way we try to increase our capacity is primarily within the current parameter. So we are building, we are breaking ground in this year, We expect to break ground this year on a new campus that many of you are aware of. But that really is I would say beyond 2028, right? So that is not you know what we're doing in order to get to the numbers that we shared. So in essence the capability improvement that we were talking about, we want to achieve that within the current set parameter in terms of the fungibility of equipment for high NA and low NA, particularly when it comes to Zeiss, because that's the way I interpreted your question that really isn't there.
It's totally different. It's totally different tools that you need that Zeiss needs to produce a high NA optic versus low NA optic. So it's not that there is fungibility that you can use high NA tools to get more low NA output that's not going to work.
CJ Muse
OK then. Thank you, Christophe. Thank you, Roger.
Jim Kavanaugh
Thank you for everybody participating and asking the questions. If you are unable to get through on the call and still have questions, please feel free to contact ASML Investor Relations with your question. So again, thank you all for joining us. And if I could ask the operator to formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. This concludes the ASML 2026 second quarter financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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