Hot Stock Commentary | SK Hynix Pullback: Q2 Earnings Miss Triggers Valuation Compression; HBM4 Ramp-Up Pace Emerges as Key Variable

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Immediate trigger:This time, $SK Hynix (000660.KR)$ The pullback was triggered byKIS's relatively conservative forecast for 2Q26 earnings, KIS forecasts the company's Q2 2026 operating profit to reach KRW 60.4 trillion, below the consensus expectation of KRW 65 trillionwhich is 8% lower than market consensus expectations，raising concerns in the market about the near-term pace of earnings realization.

The core contradiction lies in:SK Hynix derives a higher share of revenue from high-bandwidth memory (HBM) than its peers, resulting in an average selling price (ASP) increase below the industry average. The substantive transmission channel is:Slower-than-expected ramp-up of HBM4 → weaker blended ASP performance → Q2 2026 earnings below consensus estimates → valuation correction from elevated levels.

In other words, this round of adjustment leans more towarda timing issue around profit realization rather than a systemic deterioration in industry demand.

In fact, the slower ramp-up pace of HBM4 is not new information. Earlier reports from TrendForce indicated that SK Hynix’s meaningful HBM4 volume production is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2026; meanwhile, the full-year HBM4 shipment forecast has been revised down from 4.5 billion gigabits to 4 billion gigabits, consistent with Korea Investment & Securities’ (KIS) downward revision of its Q2 operating profit outlook.

The key tension in Q2 is that the price increase for commodity DRAM may be stronger than previously assumed by the market, while HBM4 has yet to meaningfully contribute to a higher ASP. Against this backdrop, SK Hynix—due to its greater exposure to HBM—has underperformed peers or the market average in blended ASP performance this quarter, as those peers benefit more directly from rising DRAM prices. Moreover, as early as April, some analysts suggested SK Hynix might cut its HBM4 production volume by 20–30% this year, though the reduction is expected to be offset by growth in HBM3E and server DRAM. If this substitution holds true, what suffers is the narrative around early large-scale adoption of next-generation products. Currently, the market is repricing SK Hynix based on a Q2 earnings expectation gap—a mismatch between its earnings structure and market expectations—rather than a clear decline in overall demand.

External disruptions:The collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire window and renewed risks in the Strait of Hormuz have indeed heightened uncertainty around energy supplies and global supply chains. Qatar accounts for approximately 30% of global helium production, and disruptions to maritime shipping are putting pressure on helium supply.As an economy highly dependent on Middle Eastern energy imports, South Korea could see its equity risk appetite dampened if energy import costs rise.

Key Takeaway:Overall, SK Hynix's recent decline is primarily driven by valuation compression centered on The valuation compression unfolding from the Q2 2026 earnings expectation gap. This essentially stems from a mismatch between the company’s earnings structure and market expectations: HBM carries significant weight, but HBM4 has yet to enter a meaningful volume ramp-up phase, resulting in blended average selling prices and short-term profitability lagging behind consensus estimates. Based on current information, this appears more likean adjustment in the ramp-up pace of HBM4 and the timing of profit realization，rather than a noticeable decline in total industry demand.Going forward, key focus should remain on the ramp-up progress of HBM4 after Q3 2026, as well as the ability of HBM3E and server DRAM to support near-term earnings.

For more detailed analysis on $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$$SK Hynix (000660.KR)$$CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07709.HK)$ For a detailed analysis of SK Hynix's Korean and U.S. stocks, please sign up for our live session this Monday at 16:30.

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Yu Shilin, Licensed Representative, Central Entity Number: ATQ882

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