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Week Ahead | Waller’s Congressional Debut Coincides with June CPI! Big Five Wall Street Banks Kick Off Q2 Earnings Season; Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML Holding Test AI Demand; US-Iran 'Fight-and-Talk' Dynamics Stir Oil Prices

Key Events to Watch in the Coming Week

– Waller’s first congressional testimony as Fed Chair draws market focus on rate signals all week

Fed Chair Waller will appear before Congress for two consecutive days—Tuesday and Wednesday—for the semiannual monetary policy hearings. This marks his first appearance before Congress as Fed Chair since taking office and will be the week’s most significant market-moving event.

At 22:00 Beijing time on Tuesday, Waller will testify before the House Committee on Financial Services; at 22:00 on Wednesday, he will appear before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Both hearings will center on the Federal Reserve’s semiannual monetary policy report submitted to Congress.

The key highlight of these hearings is that the U.S. June CPI data, scheduled for release at 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, will come just 90 minutes before the first hearing, leaving Waller virtually unable to avoid questions on inflation and the interest rate path.Markets will closely watch how he assesses the latest inflation data, whether the energy price shock appears persistent, and whether he leaves the door open to potential rate hikes in July or September.

The June FOMC statement removed the traditional forward guidance on rates, after which Waller emphasized that the Fed would base its decisions on incoming data and the economic outlook. If CPI shows cooling and Waller softens his hawkish stance, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could face downward pressure, offering support to tech growth stocks and gold. Conversely, if inflation comes in hotter than expected and Waller does not rule out further tightening, markets may continue reinforcing bets on rate hikes.

In addition, several other Fed officials will speak publicly.

At 00:30 on Tuesday, Fed Governor Waller will deliver remarks.

At 01:00 on Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, a 2027 FOMC voting member, will participate in a fireside chat; at 20:45, New York Fed President Williams, a permanent FOMC voter, will give a speech.

At 06:30 on Thursday, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, a 2028 FOMC voting member, will deliver remarks.

At 00:30 on Friday, Lorie Logan, President of the Dallas Fed and a 2026 FOMC voting member, will deliver remarks; at 07:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy.

– US June CPI and PPI data are set for release, testing market expectations for rate hikes against inflation and consumer spending trends.

The US June CPI and core CPI will be released on Tuesday at 20:30. Multiple institutions forecast that the year-over-year headline CPI may ease from May’s 4.2% to between 3.8% and 3.9%, while core CPI is expected to remain around 2.9% year-over-year. Given minor variations in institutional forecasts, market attention will focus on the month-over-month figures and changes in key components such as shelter, services, and energy.

If core inflation shows a clear decline, markets may reduce bets on a rate hike this year; conversely, if rising energy prices begin spilling over into broader goods and services, expectations for further Fed tightening could intensify.

On Wednesday at 20:30, the US June PPI and core PPI will follow, offering investors fresh insight into upstream price pressures. On Thursday at 20:30, June retail sales data will test how elevated interest rates and higher prices are affecting household consumption.

For markets, next week isn’t about trading any single inflation report in isolation—it requires a sequential assessment combining 'CPI – Waller’s testimony – PPI – retail sales.' Whether the data and Waller’s comments reinforce each other will determine the direction of moves in Treasury yields, the dollar, gold, and tech growth stocks.

– US-Iran tensions—fighting while negotiating—continue to drive oil prices, with developments in the Strait of Hormuz remaining central.

US-Iran tensions will remain the biggest non-scheduled risk next week. Both sides launched fresh military strikes this week, with Trump announcing that the previously agreed ceasefire has ended, while also stating that the US remains open to continued negotiations with Iran.

By the weekend, the US had demanded that Iran publicly commit to halting attacks on commercial vessels and guaranteeing free and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister traveled to Oman to discuss strait transit arrangements with regional mediators.Even as talks continue, Iran again announced it would close the Strait of Hormuz and attacked US military bases in Gulf states, while US forces carried out another round of strikes on Iranian targets—highlighting a clear pattern of 'fighting while negotiating.'

Next week, the market will closely monitor whether Iran accepts the U.S. proposal on freedom of navigation, whether Oman’s mediation can lead to a temporary arrangement, and whether the U.S. and Iran escalate military actions again. If stable shipping resumes through the Strait, crude oil’s geopolitical risk premium could quickly recede; if commercial vessels are attacked or U.S. military operations intensify, oil prices, gold, and defense stocks may strengthen, while airlines, transportation, and energy-intensive sectors could face pressure. Oil price movements will, in turn, influence U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve rate expectations.

– Wall Street’s top five banks will report earnings en masse on Tuesday, officially kicking off the Q2 earnings season.

$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ 、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ 、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ 、 $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ They will release their Q2 results before the U.S. market opens on Tuesday, setting the tone for this earnings season. The market will pay close attention to whether investment banking and trading revenues have benefited from heightened capital market activity, whether net interest income continues to improve, and whether loan growth, deposit costs, and credit losses signal an economic slowdown.

LSEG IBES expects that$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$the index constituents’ Q2 earnings could rise by 23.7% year-over-year, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 20%. If large banks deliver solid results and guidance, it would reinforce the view that the current U.S. equity rally remains underpinned by earnings growth; however, if credit quality deteriorates or cost pressures exceed expectations, concerns about a subsequent U.S. economic slowdown could intensify.

– ASML Holding and Taiwan Semiconductor to follow with earnings reports, testing the strength of AI-related capital spending

Beyond bank stocks, the global semiconductor supply chain will also see two critical earnings reports.$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ASML Holding will announce its Q2 results before the U.S. market opens on Wednesday. The market will focus on new orders, EUV tool deliveries, and full-year guidance. As a leading supplier of equipment for advanced semiconductor capacity expansion, ASML’s order trends are viewed as a leading indicator of semiconductor capital expenditure.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Taiwan Semiconductor will release its full Q2 results before the U.S. market opens on Thursday (midday Beijing time). Investors will watch for AI-related revenue, utilization rates of advanced process nodes, CoWoS and other advanced packaging capacity, and the full-year capital expenditure plan. Whether ASML Holding and Taiwan Semiconductor can continue to beat expectations will directly shape market views on the sustainability of AI infrastructure investment. Additionally, Taiwan Semiconductor’s June sales data, delayed due to typhoon disruptions, will be released on Monday.

– China’s Q2 GDP and other key economic data will be released in quick succession, with Hong Kong-listed stocks focusing on signs of economic recovery.

China's June import and export data will be released on Tuesday. At 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economy in the first half of the year, during which China’s Q2 GDP, June retail sales of consumer goods, and industrial output above designated size will also be released.

CICC expects June economic data to continue the pattern of 'strong external, weak domestic' performance, with Q2 GDP growth estimated at around 4.4% year-on-year. For Hong Kong equities, the extent of recovery in consumption, real estate, and industrial production data will shape market expectations for future pro-growth policies and could trigger repricing in internet, consumer, property, and raw materials sectors.

– GigaDevice faces HK$10 billion lock-up expiration, testing liquidity for the memory chip leader

$GIGADEVICE (03986.HK)$ The company will see its first tranche of cornerstone investor lock-up shares expire on July 13, involving approximately 14.39 million shares. Based on the closing price on July 10, the unlocked shares are valued at roughly HK$10.69 billion. Since GigaDevice’s H-share listing, the stock has gained over 300%, leaving cornerstone investors with substantial unrealized gains. Whether they engage in concentrated selling post-lockup will be closely watched by the market. As a representative firm in Hong Kong’s memory chip and domestic substitution segments, its share price performance may also influence overall risk appetite in the semiconductor sector.

– Tech giants ramp up event activity: Jensen Huang appears in Tokyo, Alibaba Cloud partners with Salesforce, and Gemini 3.5 Pro rumored for Friday launch

Next week, several high-profile tech companies will host product and industry events. On July 15, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will attend a 30th-anniversary commemorative event in Tokyo co-hosted by NVIDIA and Sega, where he will showcase the personal AI computing platform RTX Spark to the Japanese market. The market will watch closely whether Huang provides further details on product launch timing, OEM partnerships, and NVIDIA’s personal AI computing strategy. NVIDIA officially unveiled RTX Spark in late May.

On the same day, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Alibaba Cloud and $Salesforce (CRM.US)$ will hold their annual summit in Shanghai, focusing on topics such as AI+CRM, enterprise agents, industry clouds, and Chinese companies going global. On the same day, certain Alibaba Cloud DDoS protection products will undergo price adjustments, and Qwen and Doubao will simultaneously discontinue user-built agent functionality.

Additionally, according to media reports, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ DeepMind may launch Gemini 3.5 Pro on July 17. Google has previously only confirmed that the next-generation Pro model will be released in July,but the specific date has not yet been officially confirmed.If the new model launches as scheduled, its code generation capabilities, agent execution performance, and pricing will become key factors for the market to assess Google's AI competitiveness and the commercial prospects of Google Cloud.

The World Artificial Intelligence Conference, opening in Shanghai on July 17, will also showcase Huawei’s new Atlas 950 SuperPoD computing product, $MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)$ the M3 multimodal model, and a range of AI-powered devices and robotics products.

Key Earnings Calendar for the New Week

The second-quarter U.S. earnings season has officially begun. Tuesday will focus on earnings reports from the five major Wall Street banks, Wednesday will spotlight $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ 、 $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ and $Blackrock (BLK.US)$ Thursday will then feature companies such as $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ 、$Netflix (NFLX.US)$、$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$and $Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)$ On the Hong Kong market side, there are currently no significant interim earnings releases or specific grey-market trading arrangements for new listings scheduled for next week.

Monday (July 13)

Keywords: OPEC monthly report; Taiwan Semiconductor’s June sales data; GDY Innovation lock-up expiration; SK Hynix U.S.-listed leveraged ETF launch

In terms of economic data,No particularly significant U.S. economic data is scheduled for Monday.

In terms of financial events,OPEC will release its monthly oil market report at a time yet to be confirmed, typically between 18:00 and 21:00 Beijing time. Against the backdrop of U.S.-Iran tensions and disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, markets will closely watch OPEC’s assessment of global oil supply-demand dynamics, production levels, and price outlook.

In addition,$GIGADEVICE (03986.HK)$ will see the expiration of the first batch of lock-up shares held by cornerstone investors post-IPO, involving approximately 14.39 million shares.

On the earnings front, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ will release its delayed June sales figures, impacted by typhoon disruptions.

In new listings, $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ following its ADR listing, leveraged and inverse ETFs are set to roll out intensively. Firms including ProShares, GraniteShares, and Leverage Shares plan to launch on July 13 $ProShares Ultra SK hynix ETF (SKHU.US)$ 、 $Leverage Shares 2X Long SK Hynix Daily ETF (SKHX.US)$ 、 $Leverage Shares 1X Short SK Hynix Daily ETF (SKHZ.US)$ 、 $GraniteShares 2X Long SK Hynix Daily ETF (SKUU.US)$ and $GraniteShares 2X Short SK Hynix Daily ETF (SKDD.US)$ and other products; the listing of related ETFs could further amplify SK Hynix's short-term trading volume and stock price volatility.

Tuesday (July 14)

Key themes: U.S. CPI; Waller’s first congressional hearing; earnings reports from Wall Street’s top five banks

In terms of economic data,10:00 AM: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on China’s import and export performance for the first half of 2026; 6:00 PM: U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June is released; 8:15 PM: Weekly change in U.S. ADP employment for the week ending June 27 is published;8:30 PM: U.S. CPI and core CPI for June are released—major market-moving data.

In terms of financial events,12:30 AM: Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers remarks;10:00 PM: Fed Chair Waller testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at the semiannual Monetary Policy Report hearing.

On the earnings front, $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ 、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ 、$Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ will release its earnings report before the U.S. market opens.

Wednesday (July 15)

Key events: China Q2 GDP; US PPI; Wallsh Senate hearing; ASML Holding earnings

In terms of economic data,09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics releases the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 major cities; 10:00, China’s Q2 GDP, June retail sales, and industrial output above designated size are released; 17:00, eurozone May industrial production month-over-month is published;20:30, US June PPI and core PPI are released.

In terms of financial events,01:00, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat; 20:45, New York Fed President Williams delivers remarks; 21:45, the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision and monetary policy report;22:00, Wallsh testifies before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; 22:30, the Bank of Canada holds a monetary policy press conference.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent will also chair a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council to discuss geopolitical risks, artificial intelligence, and financial stability issues.

On the earnings front, $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ 、 $Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$ 、 $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ 、 $Blackrock (BLK.US)$ will release earnings before the US market open;$United Airlines (UAL.US)$will release earnings after the U.S. market close.

Thursday (July 16)

Key events: Fed Beige Book;$US Retail Sales (USRS.EC)$; Bank of Korea rate decision; Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix earnings reports

In terms of economic data,At 14:00, the UK will release its three-month GDP, manufacturing output, and industrial production data for May; at 20:30, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales month-over-month, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July; at 22:00, the U.S. will release the NAHB Housing Market Index for July, business inventories month-over-month for May, and existing home sales pending index month-over-month for June.

In terms of financial events,At 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions; at 06:30, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will deliver remarks. The Bank of Korea will announce its interest rate decision, with markets watching whether it will implement its first rate hike since 2021.

On the earnings front, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ 、 $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ 、$GE Aerospace (GE.US)$ 、$U.S. Bancorp (USB.US)$、$State Street (STT.US)$、$Abbott Laboratories (ABT.US)$will report earnings before the U.S. market open; $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ 、 $Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)$ 、 $Alcoa (AA.US)$ will release earnings after the U.S. market close.

Friday (July 17)

Keywords: World Artificial Intelligence Conference; South Korean stock market closed; U.S. monthly options expiration

In terms of economic data,At 17:00, final readings for Eurozone June CPI and core CPI will be released; at 20:30, U.S. June housing starts (annualized), building permits, and monthly import price index will be published; at 21:15, U.S. June industrial production (month-over-month) will be released; at 22:00, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July will be published.

On the economic events front,at 00:30, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will deliver remarks; at 07:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy; the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference will open in Shanghai; China’s refined oil pricing window reopens for adjustments.

In terms of market trading,July 17 marks the standard monthly options expiration date for U.S. equities. Given the dense calendar of macroeconomic events and earnings reports this week, short-dated options positions in bank stocks, semiconductors, and large-cap tech names may see a notable increase. Investors should monitor the impact of market makers’ hedging activities and position rollovers on intraday and end-of-day volatility on Friday.

Regarding market holidays,The Seoul Stock Exchange in South Korea will be closed for one day due to Constitution Day.

Stay ahead on major financial events and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Financial Calendar/Featured macroeconomic data, seize investment opportunities ahead of the curve!

For a new week, wish all fellow investors successful investments!

Editor/Rocky

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