Partnering with an overseas oral drug delivery technology platform! Shares surge nearly 29%—is a valuation rebound ahead for Pregene Biopharma (02565.HK)?

On July 10, long-dormant Pregene Biopharma-B<$PEGBIO CO-B (02565.HK)$> staged a sharp rebound. By market close, the stock closed at HK$7.13, surging 28.93% in a single day, with an intraday volatility of 43.22%, total turnover of HK$1.023 billion, and a turnover rate of 36.62%, signaling rapidly rising investor interest.

Looking back, PegBio was once a star name in the Hong Kong-listed metabolic drug sector.Starting in June 2025, riding the tailwinds of the GLP-1 weight-loss drug industry, the company's share price surged from a low of HK$8.68 to a record high of HK$77 by the end of November that year, marking a cumulative gain of over 7.8 times. However, after entering 2026, the stock entered a prolonged downtrend due to multiple headwinds—including a broad correction in the innovative drug sector, slower-than-expected commercialization progress, and shifts in market sentiment—recently plunging to a historic low of HK$4.94, representing a decline of more than 90% from its peak.

The core catalyst behind this recent stock surge stems from an announcement of a cross-border technology collaboration.

On July 10, PegBio announced that on July 8, it signed a three-year memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Rani Therapeutics, a Nasdaq-listed company. Under the MoU, the two parties intend to leverage Rani’s proprietary RaniPill® oral biologic delivery platform to conduct oral formulation screening and preclinical development for several of PegBio’s innovative obesity and metabolic disease candidates, while also exploring further collaboration on the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of these products outside China.

In the market’s view, this partnership represents far more than a simple dosage-form optimization—it fundamentally reshapes both the valuation and growth narrative of PegBio’s pipeline.

First, breakthroughs in dosage form unlock the ceiling for commercialization.PegBio has already built a tiered pipeline comprising its commercialized product Viperglutide, its ultra-long-acting platform CR059, and next-generation obesity candidates such as APGP6. The integration of RaniPill® could introduce a new variable—oral administration—across assets at different stages and with different mechanisms within its metabolic portfolio.

Second, it expands PegBio’s global potential.Rani possesses mature oral delivery technology along with established overseas industrial and capital resources. Starting from co-development of technology, the collaboration could evolve into joint development, regional licensing, or commercial partnerships, enabling PegBio to transition from a domestic innovative biopharma into a global metabolic asset platform.

However, risks cannot be ignored eitherHowever, first, the two parties have only signed a memorandum of understanding so far, with no definitive R&D or commercial agreements yet in place; specific project selection and technical validation remain uncertain. Second, oral biologics face high development barriers and long timelines, carrying significant risk of failure during both preclinical and clinical stages.

At the fundamental level, Pregene Biopharma has not yet achieved profitability, reporting losses of RMB 279 million, RMB 283 million, and RMB 209 million in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with fluctuations observed in the commercialization progress of its core products and the pace of R&D investment.

In addition, Pregene Biopharma’s share price has risen sharply in the short term, reflecting intense speculative trading sentiment; if no substantive progress materializes, a rapid pullback is possible.

Overall, this cross-border collaboration has injected a new valuation narrative into Pregene Biopharma, which had been deeply oversold, opening a window for valuation recovery driven by the dual upside potential of 'oral formulation innovation' and 'global expansion.'

However, it should be noted that the core of innovative drug investing ultimately lies in successful R&D execution and commercial realization. Once the hype around the concept fades, whether the asset value can truly translate into financial performance will require continuous monitoring of key upcoming developments.

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