Market Summary – July 1, 2026

Major Indices:The S&P 500 declined 0.22% to 7,483.23; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.03% to 52,305.24; the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.54% to 29,809.13.

US individual stocks:Apple rose 1.73% to $294.38; Tesla gained 1.12% to $425.30; NVIDIA declined 1.25% to $197.58.

Asian indices since their respective closing:The Nikkei 225 fell 1,030 points to 69,610 (–1.46%); the KOSPI dropped 51.42 points to 1,291.83 (–3.83%); the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (H-Shares) was closed for a market holiday; the Hang Seng Index was closed for a market holiday; the FTSE China A50 Index rose 50 points to 15,297 (+0.33%).

Interest Rates and Expectations:The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 1 basis point to 4.48%; the 2-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.18%; current market pricing implies a 27% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 19; a 63% probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 meeting; and a 44% probability of at least two rate hikes by the end of 2026. Looking ahead to the end of 2027, the dominant market expectation (32% probability) is for one rate hike (25 basis points), with a 22% chance of rates remaining unchanged or being cut, and an 18% probability of cumulative hikes of 75 basis points or more.

Overseas Commodities:Crude oil futures fell 2.16% to $68.00; natural gas futures declined 2.20% to $3.203; silver futures dropped 0.35% to $59.72; gold futures rose 0.28% to $4,050.0.

Volatility:The VIX spot index closed at 16.57 (+0.12 points); the VIX futures (July contract) settled at 18.20 (+0.25 points); the one-month at-the-money implied volatility for the S&P 500 stood at 13.1% (down 1.0 point based on the same strike price); the one-month at-the-money implied volatility for the Nasdaq 100 was 24.0% (down 1.2 points based on the same strike price).

Market Summary:

U.S. equity markets posted mixed results during the trading session. Most stocks advanced following Federal Reserve Governor Warsh's comments indicating that recent inflationary pressures have eased. Although 298 constituents of the S&P 500 rose, the index closed slightly lower on the day due to underperformance among large-cap stocks. The semiconductor sector was the primary drag, as market enthusiasm for building artificial intelligence (AI) data centers cooled. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.3%, with multiple stocks—including KLA Corp, Teradyne, and Micron Technology—declining more than 10%.

The market’s broad-based gains were also reflected in the S&P 500 equal-weighted index—which is less influenced by mega-cap stocks such as the Mag 7—as this equal-weighted version reached a new all-time high during Wednesday’s trading session.

However, the AI boom did benefit Meta. Its shares rose after the company announced plans to establish a cloud infrastructure division to sell AI computing capacity and model access, positioning Meta to directly compete with established giants in the space such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.

On international trade, as expected, the United States opted not to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) with Canada and Mexico, instead favoring annual reviews. The Trump administration had touted the agreement in 2020 as 'the best ever,' but it clearly failed to meet the lofty expectations set at the time, marking yet another 180-degree policy reversal from the Trump era.

In overnight trading, Asian equity index futures moved mixed compared to their daytime spot closing levels. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and, notably, South Korea’s Kospi 200 both declined, weighed down by weakness in AI-related stocks. Hong Kong markets were closed for a holiday commemorating the 29th anniversary of the territory’s handover from the United Kingdom.

[Note: Any content herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase securities.]

TRUE PARTNER (08657.HK)

Data as of 4:00 p.m. Chicago time on July 1, 2026, from Bloomberg (at-the-money volatility data sourced from True Partner).

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