ASML Holding and Taiwan Semiconductor both reported strong earnings—when will the semiconductor sell
I. Market Barometer
The three major U.S. equity indices all closed higher in the previous trading session. The semiconductor sector rallied across the board, driven by strong demand for AI chips, $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ A single-day surge of 12.76% has created a premium collection window for options sellers in this high-volatility environment.
II. Focus on Hot Targets
SOXL: Soaring AI chip demand ignites semiconductor rally, driving a sharp rebound toward previous highs
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL.US)$ The ETF rose 12.76% in the previous trading session, closing at $266.71, with an intraday high of $272.00. Trading volume reached $9.529 billion, representing a turnover rate of 31.07%, reflecting extremely high investor enthusiasm.
![I. Market Barometer The three major U.S. equity indices all closed higher in the previous trading session. The semiconductor sector rallied across the board, driven by strong demand for AI chips, $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ surging 12.76% in a single day, creating a premium collection window for options sellers in this high-volatility environment. II. Focus on Hot Targets SOXL: AI Chip Demand Ignites Semiconductor Rally, Violent Rebound Nears Previous High [Share Link: $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL.US)$] rose 12.76% in the previous session to close at $266.71, reaching an intraday high of $272.00. Trading volume hit $9.529 billion with a turnover rate of 31.07%, reflecting extremely high investor participation. From a technical perspective, SOXL gapped up at $241.45 and continued climbing throughout the session, closing near its intraday high—a classic high-volume long bullish candle signaling a breakout. The stock is in a strong short-term breakout phase. Its volume ratio stood at just 0.625, indicating that despite massive absolute volume, it hasn’t significantly exceeded recent average levels, suggesting room for further upward momentum. The core driver behind this semiconductor rally is the ongoing surge in AI chip demand. Micron’s recent earnings significantly beat expectations, confirming that capital expenditure cycles for AI infrastructure continue to accelerate. This wave of capital inflows is firmly grounded in clear industry fundamentals, ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/900090/20260701/web-1782897021870-dzBDwKXvvB.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
From a technical perspective, SOXL gapped up at $241.45 and continued climbing throughout the day, closing near the upper end of its intraday range. This formed a classic high-volume bullish breakout candle, indicating strong short-term momentum. The volume ratio for the day was only 0.625, suggesting that despite the massive absolute trading volume, it did not significantly exceed recent average levels—implying room for further upside momentum.
The core driver behind this semiconductor rally is the continued explosive demand for AI chips. Micron’s recent earnings significantly beat expectations, confirming that capital spending on AI infrastructure remains in an accelerating cycle. This clear industry logic has drawn both institutional and retail investors into the sector, pushing market sentiment into euphoric territory. However, as a 3x leveraged ETF, SOXL inherently exhibits amplified volatility—a 13% intraday swing suggests potential for profit-taking and technical pullbacks in the near term.
Yesterday’s rally was fueled by news that the South Korean government announced its largest-ever investment plan for the semiconductor and AI industries on June 29.By 2035, South Korea is expected to invest as much as 1,000 trillion Korean won in AI data centers—a development that directly ignited bullish sentiment across the semiconductor sector.
However, on the same day, Michael Burry—the real-life 'Big Short' investor—disclosed new short positions.He has taken new short positions in NVIDIA, Applied Materials, Tesla, and SOXX. Burry noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is currently trading approximately 65% above its 200-day moving average—a scenario last seen during the 2000 internet bubble.
South Korea's policy tailwinds stand in stark contrast to a short-seller assault, with SOXL down nearly 4% in pre-market trading today. Both bullish and bearish narratives are simultaneously being priced into the market—a 'convergence of positive catalysts and short-seller pressure' that is precisely the source of elevated volatility premiums.
III. Seller Options Strategy
1. Cash Secured Put
Sell 1 contract of $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ 20260724 100P, estimated margin requirement (for reference only): $10,000 ($100 × 100)
![I. Market Barometer The three major U.S. equity indices all closed higher in the previous trading session. The semiconductor sector rallied across the board, driven by strong demand for AI chips, $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ surging 12.76% in a single day, creating a premium collection window for options sellers in this high-volatility environment. II. Focus on Hot Targets SOXL: AI Chip Demand Ignites Semiconductor Rally, Violent Rebound Nears Previous High [Share Link: $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL.US)$] rose 12.76% in the previous session to close at $266.71, reaching an intraday high of $272.00. Trading volume hit $9.529 billion with a turnover rate of 31.07%, reflecting extremely high investor participation. From a technical perspective, SOXL gapped up at $241.45 and continued climbing throughout the session, closing near its intraday high—a classic high-volume long bullish candle signaling a breakout. The stock is in a strong short-term breakout phase. Its volume ratio stood at just 0.625, indicating that despite massive absolute volume, it hasn’t significantly exceeded recent average levels, suggesting room for further upward momentum. The core driver behind this semiconductor rally is the ongoing surge in AI chip demand. Micron’s recent earnings significantly beat expectations, confirming that capital expenditure cycles for AI infrastructure continue to accelerate. This wave of capital inflows is firmly grounded in clear industry fundamentals, ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/900090/20260701/web-1782897022179-Sk5bT3AmtB.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Opportunity Rationale:
For investors who remain bullish on the long-term structural demand for AI semiconductors but have not yet established positions, South Korea’s large-scale investment plan provides strong long-term demand validation. However, the near-term market faces sentiment headwinds from high-profile short sellers targeting semiconductors and technical resistance at prior highs.
As a 3x leveraged product, SOXL exhibits extreme intraday volatility. Chasing the rally directly exposes investors to the risk of a technical pullback. By selling put options, investors can collect premium income in this high-volatility environment if the stock consolidates near current highs or continues its upward trend. If the price retreats due to short-seller sentiment or technical pressure, they also gain the opportunity to establish a position at a more prudent cost basis.
2. Covered Call
Holding 100 shares $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$, sell 1 contract of SOXL 260710 350C
![I. Market Barometer The three major U.S. equity indices all closed higher in the previous trading session. The semiconductor sector rallied across the board, driven by strong demand for AI chips, $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ surging 12.76% in a single day, creating a premium collection window for options sellers in this high-volatility environment. II. Focus on Hot Targets SOXL: AI Chip Demand Ignites Semiconductor Rally, Violent Rebound Nears Previous High [Share Link: $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL.US)$] rose 12.76% in the previous session to close at $266.71, reaching an intraday high of $272.00. Trading volume hit $9.529 billion with a turnover rate of 31.07%, reflecting extremely high investor participation. From a technical perspective, SOXL gapped up at $241.45 and continued climbing throughout the session, closing near its intraday high—a classic high-volume long bullish candle signaling a breakout. The stock is in a strong short-term breakout phase. Its volume ratio stood at just 0.625, indicating that despite massive absolute volume, it hasn’t significantly exceeded recent average levels, suggesting room for further upward momentum. The core driver behind this semiconductor rally is the ongoing surge in AI chip demand. Micron’s recent earnings significantly beat expectations, confirming that capital expenditure cycles for AI infrastructure continue to accelerate. This wave of capital inflows is firmly grounded in clear industry fundamentals, ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/900090/20260701/web-1782897021935-ilm2mAZ9UP.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Opportunity Rationale:
For investors already holding SOXL with substantial unrealized gains, the current share price—propelled by positive policy news—is approaching recent highs. However, legendary short-seller Michael Burry’s bearish comments on the semiconductor sector could limit further upside in the near term.
Investors who remain confident in the long-term growth thesis driven by AI but are concerned about near-term volatility from intense bull-bear battles and the structural swings inherent in leveraged ETFs can consider selling call options. If the stock consolidates in the higher range, the premium collected reduces the effective holding cost. If the stock continues rising—fueled by sustained policy tailwinds—and approaches the strike price where assignment occurs, it effectively locks in profits at new highs.
IV. Risk Control Reminder
Although the seller strategy has a high probability of success, investors must still manage risks effectively:
– Position management is key:The biggest risk for option sellers lies in black swan events. It is recommended that margin exposure for a single underlying should not exceed 20% of total capital. Never sell options beyond your capacity for the sake of greedy premiums.
– Timely rolling of covered call options: When a covered call option becomes deeply in-the-money (stock price far exceeds the strike price), and if the underlying stock is still viewed favorably, decisively 'roll' the position — that is, close the current option by buying it back and simultaneously sell an option with a later expiration date and a higher strike price to avoid having the stock called away at a low price.
– Cash-secured put options warn of 'left-tail risk':For cash-secured puts, if the stock price collapses due to deteriorating fundamentals (rather than a normal pullback), do not hold on stubbornly. At this time, stop losses should be executed, or 'rolling down' can be employed to buy time and wait for volatility to normalize.
Make good use of the options seller zone to understand the income strategies for selling optionsEarn option premiums!
Make good use of the options seller zone to understand the income strategies for selling optionsEarn option premiums!
![I. Market Barometer The three major U.S. equity indices all closed higher in the previous trading session. The semiconductor sector rallied across the board, driven by strong demand for AI chips, $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ surging 12.76% in a single day, creating a premium collection window for options sellers in this high-volatility environment. II. Focus on Hot Targets SOXL: AI Chip Demand Ignites Semiconductor Rally, Violent Rebound Nears Previous High [Share Link: $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL.US)$] rose 12.76% in the previous session to close at $266.71, reaching an intraday high of $272.00. Trading volume hit $9.529 billion with a turnover rate of 31.07%, reflecting extremely high investor participation. From a technical perspective, SOXL gapped up at $241.45 and continued climbing throughout the session, closing near its intraday high—a classic high-volume long bullish candle signaling a breakout. The stock is in a strong short-term breakout phase. Its volume ratio stood at just 0.625, indicating that despite massive absolute volume, it hasn’t significantly exceeded recent average levels, suggesting room for further upward momentum. The core driver behind this semiconductor rally is the ongoing surge in AI chip demand. Micron’s recent earnings significantly beat expectations, confirming that capital expenditure cycles for AI infrastructure continue to accelerate. This wave of capital inflows is firmly grounded in clear industry fundamentals, ...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/900090/20260701/web-1782897130823-USHofi7i5v.webp/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Options Risk Warning
An option is a contract that grants the holder the right—but not the obligation—to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified date. Option prices are influenced by multiple factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, time to expiration, and implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the market’s expectation of future price fluctuations over the life of the option and is derived by reverse-engineering the Black-Scholes pricing model. It is commonly used as a gauge of market sentiment. When investors anticipate greater volatility, they may be willing to pay higher premiums for options to hedge risk, leading to elevated implied volatility. Traders and investors use implied volatility to assess the relative attractiveness of option prices, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.
Disclaimer
This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or guarantee for any securities, financial products, or tools. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In some cases, losses incurred may exceed the initial margin deposited. Even if you set contingency orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, these may not necessarily prevent losses. Market conditions may make such orders unexecutable. You may be required to deposit additional margin within a short period. If you fail to provide the required amount within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. However, you will still be responsible for any shortfall in your account resulting from such liquidation. Therefore, before trading, you should study and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading suits you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and the rights and obligations upon expiration. Options trading involves extremely high risks and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options carefully before engaging in any options trading strategy.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
Comment (1)
to post a comment
15
18
