Niu Niu Technical Intelligence Bureau | Qualcomm Surges Over 10% After Landing Major AI Deals with Meta and Microsoft—Has the Downtrend Been Fully Reversed?

$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$On June 24, after U.S. market hours, it held its annual Investor Day, unveiling a growth roadmap that significantly exceeded market expectations, triggering an immediate post-market surge of more than 13% in its share price.In the regular trading session prior to that, QCOM had declined for four consecutive sessions from its June 18 peak of $226.11, falling by approximately $28.70 (-12.7%) cumulatively, and closed at $197.41 on June 24, forming a clear short-term downtrend channel.However, the Investor Day catalyst disrupted the previous weakening momentum, creating a rare intraday divergence between technicals and fundamentals—the technical chart still reflected the weak closing position, while the valuation repricing driven by the after-hours announcement had not yet been incorporated into the candlestick chart.

The key highlights of Investor Day centered on upgraded quantitative targets for its diversification strategy:

1. Qualcomm raised its non-handset revenue target for fiscal year 2029 to $40 billion,doubling its previous target；

2. Its data center business plan is particularly aggressive—targeting $5 billion in revenue by fiscal year 2027 and aiming for $15 billion by fiscal year 2029, underscoring Qualcomm’s comprehensive push into the AI computing space;

3. On the client side,Qualcomm announced it has secured a multi-generation CPU order from Meta and is deploying its latest HBC AI chips to Microsoft, with these two hyperscale custom chip customers expected to contribute a combined $1 billion in incremental revenue in fiscal year 2027;

4. Additionally, the automotive business’s design-win pipeline has expanded to $65 billion, and the company has set an IoT revenue target of over $14 billion by 2029,with a non-GAAP earnings-per-share target exceeding $18.

The CFO further stated during the meeting thatthe company has the opportunity to scale its annual revenue to $100 billion.Following the announcement, Susquehanna immediately raised Qualcomm’s price target from $160 to $190. The semiconductor sector rebounded broadly, buoyed by Micron’s strong earnings report and Qualcomm’s optimistic guidance.

Whether the after-hours surge can carry over into the next trading session’s open and effectively reclaim key resistance levels has become the most critical technical focus at present. Below, we analyze this from two perspectives: price structure and key levels.

Qualcomm (QCOM)

Qualcomm has been in a sustained pullback since its June 18 high of $226.11, closing at $197.41 on June 24—a cumulative decline of approximately $28.70 (-12.7%) over four trading sessions.

On the candlestick chart, multiple bearish patterns have recently overlapped.A shooting star formed on June 22: opening at $222.93, rallying intraday to $233.44, and closing at $221.90. The upper shadow was about $11.54 long, while the real body was only around $1.03—making the upper shadow roughly 11 times the length of the body. This pattern emerged within the consolidation top zone of $226–$233, serving as a classic warning sign of a top reversal. The following day (June 23), the stock gapped down sharply at the open and closed lower (opening at $207.34 and closing at $204.13), effectively confirming the bearish signal.

However, boosted by multiple positive announcements from its annual investor day on June 24 after the market close, Qualcomm’s share price has already rebounded back to the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band, signaling an overall technical reversal.

Key Technical Indicators Interpretation

Moving Average (MA):20-day moving average (MA20) = $221.36, 50-day moving average (MA50) = $195.65; as of the time of writing, Qualcomm’s share price has rebounded above the MA20, but intraday price action still warrants close monitoring—Whether the price can stabilize and close above the MA20 is one of the key criteria for confirming a shift from a bearish to a bullish trend.

RSI:The current reading is 44.76, which falls within the neutral range (30–70) and lies below the 50 midpoint; no clear bullish divergence signal has been observed.

Bollinger Bands:The current share price is trading at the middle Bollinger Band level ($221.36); the bands have not yet narrowed, indicating that volatility remains in an expansion phase.

Technical Comprehensive Analysis

On the support side,The most critical support level currently is the MA50 ($195.65).If this level is breached on a closing basis, the moving averages will form a full bearish alignment, significantly deteriorating the technical structure. Below the MA50,$191.02 (the intraday low on June 24) serves as a near-term technical support floor for further downside moves.Should this level be broken, the next reference point would bethe lower Bollinger Band at $187.72,which currently acts as a strong support buffer zone.

On the resistance side, considering the latest stock price,the key resistance level is concentrated at $221.36 (where the 20-day moving average converges with the middle Bollinger Band), which currently serves as the pivotal point in the market's bullish-bearish structure—only by reclaiming and sustaining above this level can a structural trend reversal be discussed.

126K Views