Jensen Huang signals at shareholder meeting: The era of 'AI factories' has arrived

百刀玩期权

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This Week's $100 Options Opportunity Pool | NVIDIA Shareholder Meeting Approaches, PCE Risk-Hedging Play: Two Key Themes – One Offensive, One Defensive

Hello fellow investors, welcome to this week’s 'Playing Options with $100' opportunity pool! Each week we focus on clear market themes and highlight noteworthy low-barrier options opportunities. We don’t talk about once-in-a-lifetime windfalls; instead, we explain the rationale, whether it’s worth watching, and where the risks lie.

📢Starting with this episode, the 'Bai Dao Plays Options' series now has its own dedicated account! If you find this series helpful and want to be the first to see our weekly opportunity pool updates and Friday recaps, fellow investors, don’t forget to hit follow~

Market Focus This Week

There are two key themes for options traders to watch this week:

The first is Wednesday’s $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$shareholder meeting.As the undisputed leader in AI chips, any news from NVIDIA moves markets. At the shareholder meeting, Jensen Huang may reveal critical updates on next-generation products and customer orders. If you’d like to play this event but find NVIDIA’s stock options too expensive, consider NVDL—the 2x leveraged ETF tracking NVIDIA—which offers lower-priced options and a more accessible entry point.

The second is the May PCE data, set to be released pre-market Thursday (20:30 Beijing time Thursday evening). PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and directly shapes monetary policy expectations. Last month’s PCE data showed persistent inflationary pressure, with year-over-year growth hitting a multi-year high.

If this data release again exceeds expectations, it will exert short-term pressure on the broader market. For fellow investors looking to hedge or position defensively right after the release, short-dated SPY put options offer a direct way to express that view.

These two themes—one leaning toward offense (NVIDIA event-driven) and the other toward defense (PCE-driven risk aversion)—perfectly represent the two typical uses of options.

Target One: $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL.US)$

Wednesday is NVIDIA’s annual shareholder meeting, where Jensen Huang is highly likely to provide updates on the progress of its next-generation products (B200 series), customer orders, and the long-term outlook for AI computing power. Recent news suggests downstream demand for NVIDIA remains red-hot—the rumored leasing price for B200 chips could double, new orders are already booked into Q2 next year, and NVIDIA is even reportedly securing upstream copper foil supplies directly. All these point to a core thesis:The AI arms race continues to accelerate, and NVIDIA remains the biggest beneficiary.

Then why choose NVDL instead of buying NVIDIA options directly?

The reason is simple:NVIDIA’s stock price has already surged past $200 per share, driving up the premium of its options accordingly.NVDL, as a 2x leveraged ETF, trades at a lower price—under $100 per share—making it more accessible for fellow investors who want to place a small, speculative bet on potential moves around the shareholder meeting.

(The design images displayed on the screen are for demonstration purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice or guarantee; market conditions fluctuate frequently, and the option prices shown in the illustration do not represent actual situations. The filtering criterion is options with a unit price around 1 dollar.)

Bullish rationale

The shareholder meeting provides a clear catalyst: Jensen Huang has a well-established habit of unveiling key information during major events,with updates on new product progress, major client orders, and technology roadmaps all serving as potential stock price catalysts.

Fundamentals remain robust:GPUs remain in short supply, leasing prices are rising, and competitors ( $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ 、 $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ 、 $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ ) are still playing catch-up—all of which indicate that NVIDIA's moat remains very deep.

Bullish market sentiment:The AI boom continues to gain momentum, and as long as there are no clear macroeconomic or industry headwinds, capital will likely keep chasing it.

Downside risks

Fading tailwinds turning into headwinds:The content of the shareholder meeting may already be priced in by the market—the 'buy the rumor, sell the news' playbook has been seen before with NVIDIA.

Crowded trade risk:The AI theme continues to draw strong investor attention; any commentary falling short of expectations could trigger profit-taking.

IV Crush: Ahead of major events, options’ implied volatility typically runs high (as market participants anticipate significant price swings). After the event concludes, uncertainty dissipates, and option prices automatically 'shrink'—even if your directional call on the stock is correct, the option’s gains may fall short of expectations. This phenomenon is known as 'IV Crush.'

Choosing NVDL over NVDA options is primarily becausethe entry barrier is lower—for options priced around $1, the leveraged ETF has a lower absolute share price, making its option premiums more affordable.However, leveraged ETFs carry unique risks that fellow investors must fully understand:

The "2x" leverage of a leveraged ETF is calculated daily, not over the long term. If the underlying stock oscillates back and forth—even if it ultimately returns to its starting point—the leveraged ETF may still incur losses due to "volatility decay."

Precisely because of this daily reset mechanism, leveraged ETFs are unsuitable for long-term holding and are only appropriate for short-term event-driven trades. The upcoming shareholder meeting is scheduled for Wednesday evening Beijing time; once you establish a position, monitor it closely and do not leave it unattended.2x long exposure means higher gains when prices rise, but also larger losses when they fall. Do not increase position size simply because the option premium appears cheap—risk management remains paramount.

Target Two: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$

On Thursday, the U.S. will release May PCE data, the most significant macro event this week. Recent reports indicate that April’s year-over-year PCE inflation hit a multi-year high, with core PCE also accelerating. If May’s data continues to come in "hot," risk assets could face notable short-term pressure.

SPY, as an ETF tracking the S&P 500, is the most direct instrument to express a view on a "near-term market pullback." Moreover, SPY and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$other broad-market ETFs offer a unique advantage: they have expiring options available every trading day, commonly known as "0DTE" (zero days to expiration).This means you can precisely buy put options expiring on Thursday, minimizing time value decay.

Bearish rationale (i.e., the scenario in which this put option profits)

Inflation proves stickier than expected: Based on April's previously released data and recent energy price trends, there is a significant chance that May's PCE remains elevated, potentially dampening expectations for rate cuts.

Market pricing is overly optimistic: $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ The market has posted solid gains this year, partly driven by expectations of rate cuts in the second half. If the PCE data disrupts this narrative, a short-term pullback would be justified.

Volatility is currently low: The implied volatility of SPY options—which reflects the market’s expectation of future volatility—is currently at a relatively low level, making the cost of buying puts reasonably attractive.

Downside risks

If the PCE data unexpectedly cools, the market may interpret it as a signal that rate cuts are back on the table, causing equities to rise rather than fall—and the value of put options could quickly drop to zero.

Since the beginning of this year, market enthusiasm for the AI narrative has been extremely high, with capital continuously flowing into leading tech stocks.Even if inflation data comes in higher than expected, the market may selectively overlook macro headwinds and continue embracing the AI theme, driving the broader market further upward.

Important Reminder

Options may expire worthless:This is especially true for short-term out-of-the-money options—if the stock price doesn’t move in the anticipated direction by expiration, the entire principal will be lost. This isn’t just 'a small loss'; it’s 'losing every single dollar.'

Correlation between the two underlying assets:This week’s two main themes aren’t entirely independent—if PCE data triggers a sharp market sell-off, NVIDIA and NVDL will likely pull back as well, disrupting the bullish thesis on NVDL due to macro factors. Conversely, if PCE data supports the broader market, put options on SPY would suffer. Clarify your core assumption before entering any position.

Entry timing: Options can only be traded during regular market hours—you cannot establish positions in pre-market or after-hours sessions. Since PCE data is released before the Thursday open, waiting until the market opens to buy would already be too late; the data impact will be fully priced in at the opening bell.If you anticipate that PCE data could come in stronger than expected and trigger a market pullback, you need to establish your Thursday-expiring put options at least one day in advance (on Wednesday) to capture the initial wave of volatility right at Thursday’s open.

This week features two clear themes—one aggressive, one defensive—with straightforward underlying logic. Remember:Low barrier to entry does not mean low risk. The appeal of $100 options lies in 'limited downside,' but that limit is your entire invested principal. See you all in Friday’s recap~

Not comfortable with options basics? Study up before jumping in.

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Long Call – Buying a call option

Long Put - Buy Put Option

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Disclaimer

This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or any guarantee of any securities, financial products, or tools. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In some cases, losses may exceed the initial margin deposited. Even if stop-loss or limit orders such as "stop-loss" or "limit" are set, they may not prevent losses. Market conditions may cause these instructions to be unexecuted. You may be required to deposit additional margin within a short period. If you fail to provide the required amount within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. However, you will still be responsible for any shortfall in your account. Therefore, before trading, you should study and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and the rights and obligations upon expiration, as well as your rights and responsibilities when exercising options and at expiration.

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