Wall Street Brief (June 13): U.S. equities edged higher on Friday, with the recovery trend continuing but at a slower pace; the Dow and small caps outperformed relatively. Oil prices declined further, while SpaceX’s IPO boosted risk appetite.

Summary: U.S. stocks rose modestly on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.50%, the Nasdaq up 0.31%, the Dow Jones up 0.70%, and the Russell 2000 up 0.79%. All four major indices advanced, though performance divergence remained evident—the Dow and small caps continued to lead, while large-cap and tech names lagged slightly—indicating that the market remains in recovery mode, albeit at a slower pace than the prior day. The VIX dropped to 17.68, down 9.05% on the day, reflecting further cooling of short-term risk aversion. The key pricing driver remained Trump’s continued signals that a deal with Iran is nearing completion, prompting markets to further reduce Middle East risk premiums and pushing oil prices lower. Meanwhile, SpaceX made its debut as the largest IPO in Wall Street history, reinforcing investor appetite for high-growth and risk assets on a sentiment level. Sector-wise, materials, financials, and utilities outperformed, while communication services lagged slightly. In broader markets, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.54%, gold gained 0.17%, crude oil fell 2.46%, Bitcoin was flat at 0.00%, and the dollar index rose 0.11%.

I. Major Events

1. The U.S. and Iran may have reached a principle-level agreement on a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump stated that discussions with Iran and the final terms have been agreed upon both in principle and in detail, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has also been incorporated into expectations. This statement further reduced Middle East risk premiums, keeping oil prices weak. As oil prices retreated, inflation concerns eased, prompting capital to rotate back into financials and cyclical sectors.

2. SpaceX surges on debut—largest IPO in Wall Street history

Priced at $135, SpaceX surged on its first trading day, becoming the largest IPO in Wall Street history. Its strong debut reignited market interest in growth-themed stocks, boosting sentiment toward aerospace, industrials, and other high-beta sectors.

3. U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in June, with both short-term and long-term inflation expectations declining

The University of Michigan’s preliminary June reading showed consumer confidence rising to 48.9 from 44.8, halting a previous streak of consecutive declines; one-year and long-term inflation expectations also fell in tandem. Declining gasoline prices provided some relief to household spending pressures. For markets, this data reinforced the view that falling oil prices are easing inflationary pressures, supporting the continued rally in risk assets.

II. Major Trends

From an intraday perspective, Friday’s gains were not a broad-based surge but rather a moderate, broadening advance. The Russell 2000 rose 0.79%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.70%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.50%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.31%. Small-cap and value stocks continued to outperform relatively, indicating this recovery phase is no longer solely supported by tech mega-caps.

Over a three-month horizon, growth-style leadership remains clearly evident. QQQ rose 20.93% over three months, significantly outpacing DIA’s 10.09% gain; SPYG climbed 14.66%, continuing to outperform SPYV’s 8.33% increase. However, over a two-week window, IWM has turned positive with a 0.87% gain, while QQQ remains down 2.30%, suggesting capital is rotating away from concentrated tech exposure toward a more balanced market structure.

Looking at leading names, the short-term rebound in mega-cap tech remains incomplete. The MAGS group declined 8.20% over two weeks, notably underperforming the SPY’s 1.95% drop over the same period. The market hasn’t turned bearish on tech stocks, but it also hasn’t returned to the prior state of concentrated positioning.

III. Market Sentiment

The VIX closed at 17.68, down 9.05% on the day, reflecting continued easing in short-term hedging demand. The CNN Fear & Greed Index rose to 34 from the previous session’s 32. While sentiment hasn’t yet reached overheated territory, the recovery trend persists.

Options market structure continues to improve. The CBOE total put/call ratio stood at 0.73, with index options at 1.23 and equity options at 0.52. Bullish sentiment at the single-stock level has clearly recovered, but protective positioning in index options remains elevated, indicating the market is repairing while still maintaining defensive hedges—not fully letting its guard down.

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs:All four major index ETFs rose on Friday. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led gains, followed closely by the Dow Jones ETF (DIA), with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in the middle, and the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) posting the smallest gain. Capital flows did not return to concentrated tech positioning but instead continued rotating toward small-cap and value segments.

2. Sector Performance:Materials (XLB) led sector gains with a 1.87% rise, followed by financials (XLF) up 1.37% and utilities (XLU) up 1.09%; resource, financial, and defensive sectors continued to take the baton. Communication Services (XLC) declined 0.42%, the only sector showing notable weakness. At the sub-industry level, copper miners (COPX) surged 3.38%, gold miners (GDX) rose 2.97%, brokerages (IAI) gained 1.83%, semiconductors (SMH) advanced 1.72%, and uranium miners (URA) rose 1.54%. AI-related optical communications and AI memory stocks continued their recovery, though momentum was weaker than the previous day.

3. The Magnificent Seven Tech Stocks:Divergence persists among the Magnificent Seven. Tesla (TSLA) led with a 1.82% gain, while Apple (AAPL) lagged with a 1.52% decline. Investors are still adding back into tech mega-caps, but not yet re-entering a full-blown chase higher.

4. U.S.-Listed Chinese Stocks:U.S.-listed Chinese stocks also showed divergence. Futu (FUTU) rose 2.10%, while Bilibili (BILI) fell 2.72%. This indicates that although risk appetite is recovering, capital inflows are not evenly distributed.

5. Cryptocurrencies:Bitcoin was flat, with no change at 0.00% for the day, and crypto-related names began to diverge. MARA gained 3.45%, MSTR rose 3.18%, while CRCL dropped 5.80%. The group is no longer moving higher in sync, suggesting capital is rotating among higher-beta names.

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$ $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $CME-Bitcoin RR Futures (JUL6) (BTCmain.US)$ $iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$

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