SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq 100—can it spark a rebound rally?

Option Mover The Moo

joined discussion · ·

Quick Recap of $100 Options | Trump TACOs Again! Semiconductors Surge Overnight, SpaceX Goes Public Tonight

Happy Friday, fellow investors!

This week’s US stock market can’t even be described by the word 'reversal'—it was more like a Sichuan opera face-changing level of drama.

Midweek, CPI data came in at a year-over-year increase of 4.2%, the highest in three years, sparking fears that the specter of stagflation might return. Then tensions in the Middle East flared up again, with Trump vowing to 'strike Iran hard.' Oil prices surged intraday, sending global risk assets into a tailspin.Yet just hours later, the script flipped 180 degrees—Trump announced on social media that the airstrike plan had been canceled, and a US-Iran deal was 'essentially finalized,' possibly to be signed soon.

This TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) move instantly ignited bullish sentiment across markets:Crude oil plummeted, US Treasuries rallied sharply, and inflation concerns eased almost immediately.Who benefited the most? Naturally, tech stocks—especially semiconductors—that had been weighed down by oil prices and inflation expectations. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 8% in a single day, while the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL delivered a textbook example of an options frenzy.

Meanwhile, on the other side, there’s another major event this Friday:SpaceX’s historic IPO. Shadow market expectations point to a first-day surge of more than 35%, potentially pushing its valuation beyond $2 trillion.This has put Rocket Lab (RKLB), the 'second seed' in the commercial space sector, squarely in the spotlight—after a series of pullbacks, RKLB saw significant pre-market gains both yesterday and today.。

Today, we’ll break down two options trades,and discuss two key lessons: 'returning to core themes after macro disruptions' and 'sentiment-driven positioning ahead of major events.'

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ : One Trump tweet sent a call option soaring threefold in a single day

Let’s first recap this week’s roller-coaster ride in the semiconductor sector.

At the start of the week, market sentiment was actually quite fragile. Although core inflation showed signs of easing in the CPI data, the headline year-over-year figure of 4.2% still unsettled investors. Compounding concerns, the Middle East situation remained unclear, keeping oil prices elevated and feeding persistent inflationary pressures. As a result, expectations for a Fed rate cut this year kept getting pushed further out, with some even starting to talk about the possibility of another rate hike.

In this environment, high-valuation growth stocks were hit hardest, and the semiconductor sector was especially hard-hit—even red-hot AI enthusiasm couldn’t offset rising rate expectations. SOXL largely traded near its lows, as the market awaited a clear signal.

The signal has arrived—and in the most dramatic way possible.

On Thursday, Trump first issued a stern warning that he would 'strike Iran tonight,' briefly sparking market panic. But just hours after U.S. markets opened, the plot took a sudden twist—he announced on Truth Social that negotiations with Iran had already 'reached the highest levels of the Iranian government,' the airstrike plan was canceled, and a deal was essentially finalized.

As soon as that post went live, crude oil prices plunged instantly, and the dual headwinds of 'inflation plus geopolitical risk' that had been weighing on tech stocks vanished overnight.The market refocused on its core narrative: AI remains AI, and demand for computing power remains unchanged.

Capital then poured aggressively into oversold semiconductor stocks, sending the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) soaring by 8% in a single day.SOXL, the triple-leveraged ETF, saw an even more exaggerated gain.。

By the way, several AI hardware–related hot stocks also delivered noteworthy performance during this rally: $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 、 $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ These computing power leaders were naturally at the forefront, while $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 、 $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ memory chip stocks like these also soared. The entire sector shifted from 'abandoned' to 'fiercely sought after'—all within the span of a single Trump post.

(The design images displayed on the screen are for demonstration purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice or guarantee; market movements are frequent, and the option prices shown do not represent actual conditions. The filtering criterion is options with an initial price below $3 per unit.)

Now let’s take a closer look at this specific contract:SOXL $250-strike call option expiring on June 18, 2026. With just over a week left until expiration, the semiconductor sector has taken another hit,This contract briefly became extremely cheap, dropping to around $2.

Then, everything we described above happened on Thursday. By the close of trading on Thursday, the contract’s price had surged to $15.70, marking a single-day gain of +215.27%. It even reached an intraday high of $16.58, just shy of the $20 mark.

Why does 'TACO' have such a massive impact on options?

Here’s a highly practical insight:Options buyers are the best vehicle for event-driven strategies—but they’re also the most vulnerable when nothing happens.

Under normal circumstances, an option’s time value decays rapidly every day—like the last few grains of sand slipping through an hourglass. If the underlying stock doesn’t rise, or doesn’t rise enough, an out-of-the-money call will expire worthless.

But if, just days before expiration, amajor positive catalyst, the situation becomes entirely different. Because:

the underlying stock price surges, turning what was previously an out-of-the-money contract into in-the-money or near at-the-money, with intrinsic value jumping from zero to positive;

implied volatility spikes, as the market’s expectation of future volatility suddenly rises, driving option prices sharply higher;

although time value is decaying, its impact is overshadowed by the other two factors。

this week’s SOXL case is a perfect example: from Monday to Wednesday, the market was waiting, and time value eroded day by day; on Thursday, Trump announced TACO, triggering a double boost of a soaring underlying stock price and spiking volatility,the short-dated call options shot straight up。

so, if you want to use a few hundred dollars to bet on a "major event + high volatility" opportunity, short-term options are indeed an option.but the prerequisite is this: you must anticipate the event in advance, and you must accept the risk that "if it doesn’t happen, your position goes to zero."

The story of this SOXL call isn't over yet—it expires next Friday. If tensions in the Middle East truly ease significantly and the semiconductor sector continues its recovery, there’s still room for this contract to run; but if something unexpected happens over the weekend, it could be a completely different story.

$Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ : A Put's 'Headwind Lesson' on the Eve of SpaceX's IPO

Rocket Lab (RKLB) is the most promising company in the commercial space sector aside from SpaceX. Its CEO, Peter Beck, has even stated:"To date, only two companies globally have truly achieved scalable space launches—one is SpaceX, and the other is us."

The company has had a string of major developments this year: Q1 revenue surged 64%, surpassing $200 million for the first time; its backlog of orders exceeded $2.2 billion; and it secured a major contract under the Trump administration’s 'Golden Dome' missile defense program. In one sentence:It’s not 'SpaceX’s shadow,' but a strong contender for the 'second pole' of the space industry.

Over the past week or two, RKLB has experienced a noticeable pullback. The reason is simple:Expectation-driven positioning.

After a sustained rally, a growing sentiment has started to dominate the market: $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ An IPO represents 'good news priced in'—the space sector had already been heavily speculated on ahead of time, pushing valuations quite high. Once SpaceX actually lists, it might instead signal an opportunity for investors to take profits. After all, 'when good news is fully priced in, it becomes bad news.'

RKLB has pulled back significantly from its previous high and was lingering near lows early in the week.If you saw further downside at this point, buying a put might seem like a logical move.The problem is, the market loves to slap you right when you think something is 'obvious.'

On Thursday, multiple positive catalysts converged:

Easing tensions in the Middle East, leading to improved risk appetite and broad gains across tech growth stocks;

SpaceX's IPO is imminent, with crypto shadow markets indicating a potential first-day pop of 35% or more, boosting sentiment across the aerospace sector;

RKLB, seen as a 'SpaceX proxy,'once again became a favorite among investors.

As a result, Rocket Lab surged sharply on Thursday and continued to rally in pre-market trading today. The puts that had bet on 'further declines' were completely wiped out.

Let’s look at this one:Rocket Lab put option expiring on June 12, 2026, with a strike price of $110。

Note: This is an end-of-day put expiring today—meaning the fate of this contract will be sealed after the market closes tonight.

According to the screenshot data, the price action of this put represents a 'textbook example of a bullish reversal':

End of May: The contract price dropped as low as around $1.07—just $107 per contract, a classic 'hundred-dollar entry'.

Mid-week high: As Rocket Lab pulled back, this put briefly rose to $10.70,bringing the value of a single contract to $1,070—an increase of nearly 10x.；

Thursday's close: $2.82, down sharply from the previous close of $7.60a plunge of 62.92%。

In other words,If you didn’t exit near the peak, your current contract is now worth only two to three times your entry price—despite having seen a paper gain of tenfold just days ago.

Even more brutal: this is a doomsday put. It expires at today’s close,and Rocket Lab’s stock price must fall below $110 for this contract to have intrinsic value. Given Rocket Lab’s pre-market surge continuing today, the $110 strike price will almost certainly not be breached.

In other words, this contract will likely expire worthless tonight.

A quick reminder: directional bets ahead of major events

This case perfectly illustrates the most common pitfall for options beginners:Event-driven direction isn’t about what you think ‘should’ happen—it’s about what the market ‘chooses’ to do.Will SpaceX's IPO be bullish or bearish for Rocket Lab?

You can find logic supporting the 'bearish' case: capital outflow, valuation comparisons, shifting investor attention...

You can also find logic supporting the 'bullish' case: heightened sector interest, spillover into aerospace-related stocks, substitution effect...

Both sides make sense, butthe market will only pick one side. And the market’s decision is often revealed at the very last moment—and in the most dramatic fashion.

Expiration-day options amplify this uncertainty.Imagine a switch: Rocket Lab trading between 109 and 111—just a $2 difference, yet for an expiration-day put with a $110 strike price, it’s the difference between having value and expiring worthless.

In summary: one call option tripled, while one put option burned away

This week’s two options taught us two starkly different lessons:

Calls on SOXL, betting on "after macro disturbances subside, the market returns to the AI theme." Trump's TACO became a catalyst, sending semiconductor stocks soaring overnight.Key lesson: If you have conviction about macro timing and sector elasticity, short-dated calls can be a powerful leveraged tool—but only if the anticipated event actually occurs.

Puts on RKLB, betting on "overhyped expectations around SpaceX’s IPO will keep pushing RKLB lower." The logic wasn’t wrong per se, but the market interpreted it differently: aerospace sector sentiment surged unexpectedly in the final days, making RKLB a beneficiary instead.Key lesson: Directional bets ahead of major events—especially using short-dated options—are extremely risky. Between your "logically sound thesis" and actual profits lies a chasm defined by whether the market agrees with you or not.

Entering with a $100 position and walking away with $1,000 in profit—options truly offer the potential for small capital to capture outsized opportunities. Yet these two cases also serve as reminders: high reward never comes without high risk. Getting the direction right, timing it correctly, and managing position size are all essential—missing any one of them can be costly. Understand first, then act. When your timing is right, opportunities will always be there. See you in our next recap~

Not comfortable with options basics? Study up before jumping in.

If, while reading this recap, you’re still unclear about basic concepts like 'What is a Long Call?' or 'How do I interpret strike prices?', don’t rush to place an order—take some time first to solidify your foundational knowledge. We’ve compiled practical beginner resources below; we recommend saving them for future reference:

Long Call Buy Call Option

Long Put - Buy Put Option

Finally, here's a small perk for fellow Futubull investors, welcome to claim it.Options Beginner Pack

*This event is exclusive to invited HK users. Click to learn more.Detailed event rules>>

Disclaimer

This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or any guarantee of any securities, financial products, or tools. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In some cases, losses may exceed the initial margin deposited. Even if stop-loss or limit orders such as "stop-loss" or "limit" are set, they may not prevent losses. Market conditions may cause these instructions to be unexecuted. You may be required to deposit additional margin within a short period. If you fail to provide the required amount within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. However, you will still be responsible for any shortfall in your account. Therefore, before trading, you should study and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and the rights and obligations upon expiration, as well as your rights and responsibilities when exercising options and at expiration.

905K Views