Countdown to SpaceX's IPO! Will the space economy get a boost?
Tengsi | Analyzing the U.S.-China Capital Market Rivalry Through Futu's Suspension of Buy Orders for Existing Accounts, Which Restricts Liquidity for SpaceX's IPO
On the evening of June 4 Beijing time, Futu announced that starting June 12, it would temporarily suspend buy (opening) transactions for existing accounts within mainland China.
Why June 12? June 12 is precisely the first day of SpaceX’s listing.
U.S. capital markets are now witnessing an unprecedented"strategic capital concentration": SpaceX$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$Will officially launch its IPO roadshow on June 4, 2026, offering 555,555,555 shares at a fixed price of $135 per share, targeting a valuation as high as $1.77 trillion and raising approximately $75 billion—potentially the largest IPO in human history.
In the 277-page prospectus,"To extend the light of consciousness to the stars"This mission statement appears repeatedly 10 times—not merely as a vision statement, but as a carefully crafted valuation narrative tool.
Recent developments in China’s capital markets indicate that policymakers are systematically channeling national strategic resources—via the STAR Market’s IPO pipeline—precisely toward two critical sectors regarded as“pillars of national strength”—namely, semiconductor memory and AI hardware.
ChangXin Technology (CXMT) received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange Listing Committee on May 27, 2026, and is expected to list under ticker code 688 between June and July, aiming to raise RMB 29.5 billion.
Market expectations suggest its post-listing market capitalization could reach RMB 3–4 trillion—making it the new market-cap leader on China’s A-share market, surpassing ICBC.
This is not just another IPO; it represents China’s strategic push in the DRAM sector"From Zero to One"A nationally endorsed milestone marking a breakthrough.
ChangXin Technology's financial figures are highly compelling: in Q1 2026, it reported RMB 50.8 billion in revenue, up 719.13% year-over-year, and RMB 33.012 billion in net profit, soaring 1,268.45% YoY. This explosive growth not only reflects the cyclical recovery tailwinds in the global memory market but, more importantly, signals that a trillion-yuan market long dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is now witnessing a serious Chinese contender with genuine mass production capabilities.
Strategically speaking, ChangXin Technology's IPO signifies China’s structural breakthrough in one of the most critical "chokepoint" segments of the semiconductor"chokepoint"industries, enabling it to leverage domestic capital markets to convert this breakthrough into a self-sustaining cycle of R&D investment.
Complementing this strategic move is Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp. (YMTC)'s IPO process. As the only mainland Chinese company with full IDM (integrated design and manufacturing) capabilities for 3D NAND flash memory, YMTC initiated its IPO counseling filing with the Hubei Securities Regulatory Bureau on May 19, 2026, and is expected to submit its STAR Market listing application as early as mid-June.
Its proprietary Xtacking stacking technology has already enabled mass production of 232-layer and higher 3D NAND flash memory, helping it capture a 13% global market share in Q1 2026—putting it in direct competition with Micron. The market anticipates an IPO valuation of approximately RMB 300 billion, with a potential post-listing market cap of RMB 2–3 trillion, forming, together with ChangXin Technology, China’s"memory twin giants"strategic landscape.
Notably, the planned listing window for these two memory chip giants—mid-2026 to early 2027—coincides precisely with a critical period of escalating U.S. semiconductor export controls targeting China.
This is no coincidence, but rather a meticulously orchestrated“domestic substitution”capitalization process: as the U.S. restricts China’s access to advanced process nodes and EDA tools through entity lists and the CHIPS Act, China is leveraging the STAR Market as a platform to inject massive long-term capital into domestic semiconductor firms, enabling them to sustain high-intensity R&D investment despite dual pressures of losses and sanctions.
In the humanoid robotics race, Unitree Robotics achieved a record-breaking“lightning-fast approval”in just 73 days—the fastest review timeline yet on the STAR Market—from application submission to approval by the Listing Committee. $Moore Threads Technology (688795.SH)$ significantly shorter than the previous $MetaX Integrated Circuits (688802.SH)$ 88 days and 116 days, respectively.
This pricing signal is unequivocal: policymakers have designated embodied intelligence and the robotics supply chain as strategic priorities for the next phase.
Unitree Technology reported revenue of RMB 1.69 billion and net profit of RMB 278 million in 2025, maintaining the global market share leadership in quadrupedal robots for multiple consecutive years. Its product portfolio has expanded beyond quadrupedal robots to include humanoid robots, dexterous hands, collaborative robotic arms, and key components such as LiDAR.
The company's IPO is not only a commercial event but also a strategic window for China to demonstrate its industrialization capabilities globally in"AI + Manufacturing"this integrated sector.
Examining SpaceX's IPO from the perspective of U.S.-China strategic competition:
First, it represents the financial embodiment of the U.S. 'national champion' strategy in AI infrastructure.SpaceX’s xAI is building the Colossus supercomputing cluster, equipped with 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs and 300 megawatts of computing power, and has signed a computing power leasing agreement with Anthropic valued at $1.25 billion per month—approximately $45 billion over three years.
This move aims to firmly anchor control over AI computing infrastructure within U.S.-based companies, preventing any segment of the computing supply chain from falling under the control of China or other geopolitical rivals.
Second, Starlink’s 10.3 million subscribers, 9,600 satellites in orbit, and network coverage across 164 countries have established the U.S.'s 'first-mover monopoly' in global digital infrastructure.In the strategically critical domain of low Earth orbit satellite communications (LEO Satcom), the U.S. is replicating the"American Standard"refers to the paradigm where whoever controls space bandwidth and low-Earth orbit resources will dominate the next generation of global communications infrastructure.
Although China is advancing its"StarNet"project (the GW constellation program), it still lags behind Starlink by three to five years or more.
Third, SpaceX’s dual-class share structure—where Musk holds 42% of equity but controls 85% of voting rights—is effectively a U.S.-style manifestation of "concentrating resources to accomplish major tasks."While this governance model is heavily criticized under traditional corporate governance theories, in the context of strategic industries, it enables Musk to bypass short-term shareholder return pressures and channel capital into Starship development and AI infrastructure.
From the perspective of U.S.-China competition, this is equivalent to the U.S. achieving something akin to China's"entrepreneurial autocracy"model."Whole-Nation System"strategic capital allocation efficiency.
Fragmentation of cross-border capital flows and regulatory博弈
On June 4, 2026, Futu Holdings Ltd announced that, in compliance with industry regulatory requirements, it will suspend stock purchase (opening position) trading services and fund deposit services for existing investors from mainland China effective June 12.
Although this move was widely anticipated by the market, its symbolic significance cannot be overlooked: the U.S.-China financial rivalry has extended from macro-level tariff wars to the micro-level domain of cross-border securities services.
More fundamentally, Futu's business contraction signals that channels through which mainland Chinese residents access U.S. capital markets via offshore brokers are being systematically closed. This aligns closely with Chinese policymakers' long-term strategy of"capital market self-reliance and control"a consistent strategic direction:
At a time when domestic flagship enterprises such as ChangXin Technology, Yangtze Memory Technologies, and Unitree Technology are poised to list successively on the STAR Market, redirecting mainland investors’ capital and attention toward the domestic STAR Market serves both financial security objectives and provides"support"Fundamentals.
Meanwhile, the United States is also intensifying its scrutiny of Chinese capital entering sensitive U.S. technology sectors. Cross-border capital flows between China and the U.S. are"decoupling"deepening from the trade dimension into financial services and equity investment, forming a mutually closed-off"parallel financial system"in its embryonic stage.
Semiconductor Localization: A Paradigm Shift from 'Breakthrough' to 'Confrontation'
ChangXin Technology's revenue of RMB 50.8 billion and net profit growth of 1,268% in Q1 2026, along with Yangtze Memory Technologies' 13% global market share, jointly signal that China's memory chip industry has crossed the"from 0 to 1"threshold of survival and entered"From 1 to N"the phase of scaling expansion. This has profound implications for the strategic competition between China and the U.S.
In the DRAM sector, the global market has long been dominated by $Samsung Electronics (005930.KR)$ 、 $SK Hynix (000660.KR)$ and $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ three oligopolistic players. CXMT's rise signifies that this格局 is being disrupted—even though it still lags behind Samsung and SK Hynix by one to two technology nodes in the short term, its access to China's vast domestic demand and sustained policy-driven funding provides ample room for catching up.
The U.S. sanctions on Huawei and SMIC have shown that export controls can slow down China's technological advancement but cannot prevent it from achieving self-reliant breakthroughs in restricted areas—especially in memory chips, where economies of scale outweigh the importance of cutting-edge process nodes.
YMTC’s case is even more dramatic. Despite being placed on the U.S. Entity List and restricted from purchasing American equipment and technology, the company independently mass-produced 232-layer 3D NAND using its Xtacking technology and increased its global market share from single digits to 13%.
This suggests that the effectiveness of U.S. export controls is diminishing—once Chinese firms complete their initial"forced domestic substitution"adaptation period, their subsequent pace of technological iteration may actually accelerate due to localized supply chains.
Dual-track competition in the AI sector
A U.S.-China AI rivalry is taking shape"Dual-track development"is emerging as the dominant pattern: the U.S., represented by SpaceX/xAI's Colossus cluster and Anthropic, maintains its lead in foundational model innovation and computing infrastructure, while China demonstrates unique strengths in AI application scenarios, hardware integration, and the industrialization of humanoid robots.
Unitree Robotics achieved"lightning speed"by moving from IPO application acceptance to approval in just 73 days, contrasting sharply with CXMT and Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC), whose IPO processes took approximately five months and are still in the counseling phase, respectively.
This difference in review pace reflects regulators' strategic prioritization across sectors—humanoid robots and embodied intelligenceare seen as areas where China could potentially"overtake rivals on a curve"are key areas, as they require not only software algorithm capabilities,but also robust manufacturing supply chain support,which is precisely China's traditional strength.
Notably, Unitree Technology reported a 47.69% year-over-year decline in net profit for Q1 2026, primarily due to significant increases in brand promotion expenses from the CCTV Spring Festival Gala and R&D expenditures.
This reflects a common characteristic among Chinese AI companies today: rapid revenue growth accompanied by unstable profitability, with business models still in the exploratory phase. Compared to SpaceX, which leverages Starlink’s steady cash flow to fund massive investments in AI and aerospace, Chinese AI firms’"cash-generating ability"remains a risk factor that warrants scrutiny.
In conclusion
Standing at this historic juncture in 2026, the essence of U.S.-China competition has become clearly evident: a comprehensive rivalry over"who will define and control the next generation of global technological infrastructure"is now fully underway.
SpaceX's IPO represents the U.S. attempt to leverage financial markets to integrate AI, space, and satellite internet into a"national strategic asset portfolio"while the successive listings of CXMT, Yangtze Memory Technologies, and Unitree Robotics reflect China's systematic strategy—using the STAR Market as a platform—to build"strategic substitution capabilities"in the fields of semiconductor self-reliance and AI industrialization.
This is not a zero-sum game with a single winner, but a long-term contest to reshape the global economic infrastructure.
For investors, the real challenge lies in this question: when the capital markets of both superpowers are allocating resources based on core logics of"national security"Rather thanand "shareholder returns"can traditional valuation frameworks and risk models still function effectively? When"Politics over profits"As this becomes the new normal, are the rules of global capital markets being fundamentally rewritten?
There are no simple answers to these questions, but every serious investor must confront them—because in the era of Cold War 2.0, not taking a side is itself a choice.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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