Two billion dollars poured into the quantum computing race—how to position yourself in the ecosystem?

Guest: Tim Yang, Senior Industry Analyst, Institutional & Private Wealth Team, Futu

Host: Jimmy, Institutional & Private Wealth Team, Futu

I. Macro Overview This Week: Inflation proves stickier than expected; rate cut expectations pushed back further (01:20 ~ 07:00)

US April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, matching expectations but marking the highest level since May 2023; core PCE increased 4.3% year-over-year, showing inflation persistence far exceeding forecasts.

The Fed is now expected to delay rate cuts until March and June 2027, with 25 basis point reductions each time. A prolonged high-rate environment has become a strong consensus, and the foundation for elevated risk asset valuations remains intact.

II. US & Hong Kong Equity Strategy: Cautiously bullish on US equities at elevated levels; Hong Kong stocks lack momentum amid range-bound trading (07:00 ~ 14:50)

US equities are trading in a strong but volatile range near highs, with a bullish bias though volatility and positioning crowding have increased, entering the late-stage rotation phase of the primary uptrend.We recommend focusing on AI hardware tech with clear earnings revisions, consumer sectors such as airlines and retail benefiting from falling oil prices, and opportunities extending into small-cap stocks.

Hong Kong equities are trading weakly in a sideways range, lacking directional momentum.At least two of the following three catalysts must materialize: a decline in US Treasury yields, progress on the US-Iran deal, and sustained southbound capital inflows.

Key US equity picks: $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ — FY27 revenue guidance raised to USD 11.5 billion (+40%), with interconnect business growth expectations lifted to over 70%; its competitive moat lies in large-scale interconnectivity and modular integration.

Key Hong Kong equity picks: $CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK)$ — Middle East conflicts have rerouted passenger traffic to direct flights; load factor reached 92% in March, hitting peak-season capacity, with high earnings visibility.

Current conditions favor tactical portfolio rebalancing rather than broad-based index positioning.

References:[Weekly Market Insights] Persistent high inflation delays rate cuts; seek structural opportunities amid sector rotation

III. Definition of Quantum Computing: A specialized accelerator designed to coexist with classical computing over the long term (14:50 ~ 20:00)

Quantum computing serves as a specialized accelerator for specific complex problems and will coexist with classical computing over the long term, forming a 'quantum + classical' hybrid architecture. The earliest practical applications focus on areas where classical computing is not incapable, but rather too costly or too slow.Quantum computing and AI are in a synergistic, mutually enhancing relationship rather than a substitutional one.

We are currently in the 'Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum' (NISQ) era, transitioning from physical qubits toward logical qubits.Widespread commercial deployment is expected only after 2029–2030, with the market size projected to reach approximately $800 billion by 2035.。

IV. Three key drivers crossing the inflection point: Technology / Engineering / Capital and Policy

Three major signals indicating the industry is passing its inflection point have already emerged. Technologically, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ the Willow chip demonstrates that 'larger is actually more stable,' showing an exponential decline in logical error rates as it scales to 105 qubits, prompting IBM to shift focus toward high-fidelity logical gate depth; engineering-wise, end-to-end commercial delivery loops are emerging; and on the capital and policy front, funding is concentrating toward leading players.

Engineering closure: overseas quantum hardware has been integrated into the three major cloud platforms—AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud—and domestically, QuantumCTek has delivered the Tianyan 504 system while Origin Quantum’s Wukong has gone live. Globally, quantum technology financing has reached $10 billion, $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$ with a combined market capitalization of $24 billion.On the policy front, the U.S. Department of Commerce passed CHIPS-related legislation in May 2026, allocating $2 billion in funding to nine quantum companies. $IBM Corp (IBM.US)$Secured USD 1 billion.

Systemic risk in the sector has declined, and market leaders are commanding higher premiums.

V. Technical Roadmaps and Ecosystem Landscape: Superconducting as the Mainstream Pathway, Ion Traps Offering the Highest Valuation Elasticity

Mainstream approaches include superconducting, ion traps, neutral atoms, and photonic quantum technologies. While the technological path has not yet converged, the leading cohort is already clear. Superconducting has progressed fastest in engineering implementation and offers the clearest industrialization pathway ( $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ 、 $IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ with concentrated deployments by major players), yet it faces constraints from cryogenic operating requirements and error-correction overhead ceilings; ion traps offer superior underlying hardware quality and the greatest valuation elasticity. The ecosystem comprises four layers, with tech giants securing full-stack positions.

The valuation of superconducting approaches hinges on whether large-scale interconnectivity, real-time decoding, and modular integration can become industry standards.

$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ holds the most comprehensive full-stack positioning, with partnerships exceeding 200 institutions;

$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ is the strongest technical pioneer at the frontier, though its commercialization output lags behind IBM;

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ is capturing the control layer through CUDA-Q/NVQLink, ensuring cross-platform compatibility—this represents the highest-margin strategic position in the fault-tolerant era.

The long-term winners will not be determined by who achieves technological leadership first between 2026 and 2028, but by whose solutions deliver greater value during hybrid, large-scale deployment post-2030.

Q: Fault-tolerant universal quantum computing is still years away—why could companies like IonQ see revenue surge by 700% as early as early 2026? Where will this revenue come from?

A: Revenue will be supported primarily by three sources. First, Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS)—leasing quantum computing power via the cloud for early-stage algorithm validation—a market that has already surpassed the $2 billion mark. Second, firm-backed orders from sovereign and defense agencies; IonQ secured a roughly $40 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency in 2026, and its remaining performance obligations from IPO-related contracts have accumulated to approximately $470 million. Third, early exports of high-priced full-system hardware, where single deals worth tens of millions of dollars can significantly boost quarterly revenue.

Q: Between pure hardware companies (e.g., IonQ) and integrated hardware-software platforms (e.g., Microsoft, IBM, NVIDIA), which will capture the largest share of industry profits over the long term?

A:Integrated hardware-software platforms that develop error-correction operating systems and cloud ecosystems could capture over 70% of the industry’s profits. $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ capable of reducing physical qubit error rates by 800x, $IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ deeply integrated with millions of developers, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ with significant software advantages and extremely high ecosystem migration costs. Pure-play hardware companies ( $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$ 、 $Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$ ) currently offer the highest valuation elasticity during this phase of technological breakthroughs, making them suitable for tactical trading opportunities based on valuation swings.

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section!

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