Pop Mart rebounded from its intraday low, with HK$153.20 acting as a key short-term support/resistance level

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Currently trading at HK$152.20, up 1.52%. Today’s high reached HK$152.60 and the low hit HK$147.600. Technically, Pop Mart’s current price is below the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$155.958, the 20-day MA at HK$155.056, and the 30-day MA at HK$155.436—all key short-term moving averages are above the share price. This indicates that the stock remains under downward pressure from these MAs, and any short-term rebound faces clear resistance. Notably, the 20-day MA (HK$155.056), 30-day MA (HK$155.436), and 10-day MA (HK$155.958) cluster around the HK$155–156 zone, forming a significant resistance area. Unless the stock can stabilize above this range, any short-term bounce should be viewed merely as technical recovery within a weak sideways trend, rather than a genuine shift to strength.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$155.056, the upper band at HK$163.604, and the lower band at HK$146.509. Pop Mart’s current price sits below the middle band but remains above the lower band, indicating the stock has not yet entered an extremely weak position but has returned to a relatively weak zone. HK$149.100 serves as the first line of short-term support; if this level holds, the stock may maintain a sideways recovery above HK$146.509. However, if HK$149.100 is breached, market focus will likely shift to HK$146.509—and if that level also breaks down, attention will turn to the next support at HK$137.375.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at approximately 32.131, indicating a relatively weak condition, with momentum yet to show clear improvement. This suggests Pop Mart still retains some potential for a rebound, but buying interest remains insufficient. If the stock can break back above HK$153.200 and gradually challenge the resistance zone between HK$155.056 and HK$155.958, momentum may begin to recover. However, if the price remains capped below HK$153.200 or even breaks below HK$149.100, short-term weakness will likely deepen further.

Judging from key points in the comments, the market’s main focus is whether the HK$150 level can hold. Bulls view dips toward HK$150 as a good buying opportunity, with some investors noting strong buying interest near HK$150, while others believe it is safe to hold positions with a target of HK$165 or argue that current prices already offer reasonable risk-reward potential. Such comments reflect that some retail investors still believe Pop Mart will find support around HK$150 and anticipate a rebound above HK$155.

However, from a technical perspective, the HK$150 level is only the first psychological and short-term support—not confirmation of a bottom. Yesterday’s high was merely HK$153.200, failing to retest the middle Bollinger Band at HK$155.056, and the closing price was near the day’s low, indicating insufficient rebound strength. For the HK$150 zone to be considered valid support, the stock must first hold above HK$149.100 and then break back above HK$153.200. A further move above the resistance zone between HK$155.056 and HK$155.958 would be needed for a more meaningful technical recovery.

Bearish comments clearly focus on downside scenarios such as 'breaking below 150,' '150 won’t hold,' and targets like '145–148,' '128,' '138,' and even '110.' Some also worry that a drop below HK$150 could trigger additional selling pressure. These remarks highlight heightened market sensitivity around the HK$150 defense line. Technically, such concerns are somewhat justified: the stock is already trading below key short-term moving averages and remains under the middle Bollinger Band. If HK$149.100 is breached, the next support level would be HK$146.509; a break below that would deepen the downtrend, making HK$137.375 the next key reference point.

Comments expressing hesitation or questions reveal that holders remain highly anxious. Many are asking whether HK$150 can hold, why the price can’t surpass HK$153, whether the rebound is just a brief rally, or if bears are tightening their grip again. Underlying all these questions is the core issue: each rebound has failed to decisively break through resistance, eroding holders’ confidence in short-term recovery. Yesterday’s retreat after testing HK$153.200 reinforced the perception that the HK$153 area exerts strong resistance.

Common questions can be grouped into three categories. First, can HK$150 hold? Technically, watch HK$149.100—if held, sideways consolidation remains possible; if broken, attention shifts to HK$146.509. Second, is the current price a good entry for buying? While near short-term support, the price remains below major moving averages and the Bollinger Band midline, offering only modest risk-reward—waiting for confirmation that HK$149.100 holds and then watching for a breakout above HK$153.200 would be more prudent. Third, can the stock return to HK$165? Before targeting HK$165, the price must first reclaim HK$153.200, then break through the resistance zone of HK$155.056–HK$155.958, and finally approach the upper Bollinger Band at HK$163.604. Until these milestones are achieved, talk of HK$165 is premature.

In terms of short-term strategy, it is not advisable to chase Pop Mart aggressively at current levels. Long positions aiming to capture a rebound should meet two conditions: first, that HK$149.100 holds firm; second, that the price reclaims HK$153.200. Only if the stock further breaks through the HK$155.056–HK$155.958 resistance zone can the trend shift from weak sideways movement toward meaningful recovery. Conversely, if HK$149.100 is breached, weakness may persist, with initial downside focus on HK$146.509; a break below that would raise concern about testing support at HK$137.375.

Overall, Pop Mart remains in a relatively weak trend. Among commenters, bulls hope the HK$150 area becomes a good entry point, bears closely watch the downside risks if HK$150 breaks, and neutral observers are most concerned about whether HK$153 can be breached and if HK$150 will hold. Technically, HK$149.100 is the first short-term defense line, HK$153.200 is the initial rebound target, and the zone between HK$155.056 and HK$155.958 represents the key resistance for recovery. Until Pop Mart trades back above HK$155.056, it will remain in a weak sideways pattern.

Key levels: 149.100 is the short-term support level. If held firmly, a technical rebound may occur. A breakout above 153.200 would create conditions for recovery, with the next targets at 155.056 to 155.958. If 149.100 is breached, weakness could persist, with immediate support seen at 146.509 and then 137.375.

Strategy 1 | Play for a short-term rebound after holding above 149.100

$UBPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27929.HK)$ | Strike price: HK$180.10 | Effective leverage: 1.8x | Strike price is above the short-term resistance zone, but with a longer time to expiry—suitable for playing a low-leverage rebound if the stock holds above 149.100.

$CIPOMRT@EC2711A.C (27955.HK)$ | Strike price: HK$180.10 | Effective leverage: 2.4x | Also intended for a longer-dated rebound play with slightly higher leverage—best used when the stock bounces from lows and gradually approaches 153.200.

$CTPOMRT@EC2609D.C (28018.HK)$ | Strike price: HK$186.78 | Effective leverage: 5.6x | Offers higher elasticity—ideal for quick short-term plays after the stock stabilizes, aiming to capture the rebound toward the 153.200–155.056 range.

Strategy 2 | Chase recovery after breaking above 153.200

$UBPOMRT@EC2609C.C (27773.HK)$ | Strike price: HK$186.88 | Effective leverage: 4.8x | Suitable for chasing the rebound after a breakout above 153.200. The strike price is above the short-term resistance zone, primarily targeting an extended recovery toward ~155.958.

$HUPOMRT@EC2609B.C (28008.HK)$ | Strike price: HK$190.02 | Effective leverage: 5.8x | Higher leverage—best for short-term momentum chasing after a breakout. Avoid holding too long if the stock fails to stabilize above 155.056.

$GJPOMRT@EC2610B.C (27787.HK)$ | Strike price: HK$193.00 | Effective leverage: 5.8x | Higher strike price—suited for bullish positioning after a confirmed breakout, focusing on capturing continued upside momentum rather than trying to bottom-fish near 149.

Strategy 3 | Follow the downtrend if跌破 below 149.100

$UBPOMRT@EP2607B.P (23059.HK)$ | Strike price HK$169.892 | Effective leverage 4.0x | Strike price is above the current share price; suitable for a more direct bearish position if the price breaks below HK$149.100, offering higher sensitivity to short-term weakness.

$BPPOMRT@EP2607A.P (24971.HK)$ | Strike price HK$162.90 | Effective leverage 4.5x | Higher leverage; suitable for use if the share price breaches HK$149.100 and tests HK$146.509, favoring short-term momentum-based trading.

$UBPOMRT@EP2610B.P (28196.HK)$ | Strike price HK$124.90 | Effective leverage 4.0x | Lower strike price; suitable after further confirmation of weakness—if the share price breaks below HK$146.509 and approaches HK$137.375, it can be used for extended bearish positioning.

Reply to investor inquiries

@starboy2010: The current share price is near HK$150, but there's no clear sign of strength yet. Only if HK$149.100 holds and the price rebounds above HK$153.200 will there be short-term recovery potential.

@荷尖上的蜻蜓: If considering buying at current levels, first monitor whether HK$149.100 can hold. Until the price reclaims HK$153.200, any rebound remains unconfirmed.

@キムタクと一緒に金持: For the share price to gain genuine upward momentum, it must first break above HK$153.200 and then reclaim the resistance zone between HK$155.056 and HK$155.958.

@小牛人小學雞: HK$128 is not currently a near-term technical support level. In the short term, watch HK$146.509 and HK$137.375 first.

@233430073: It’s unclear whether bears are closing their positions. From a price perspective, if HK$149.100 is breached, bears will gain an advantage; if the price reclaims HK$153.200, bearish pressure will ease somewhat.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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