BYD is holding at the HK$90 level but showing weak rebound momentum; retail investors looking to bet on a recovery should first watch the HK$93.2 resistance. A break below HK$90.293 could lead to a retest of HK$88.5.

BYD closed yesterday (21st) at HK$90.550, up 0.39%. On the surface, the stock stopped declining and even posted a slight rebound yesterday (21st). However, considering the day’s intraday high and low, the trend has not truly strengthened yet. The stock reached an intraday high of HK$93.200 and a low of HK$90.300 yesterday, closing near the session low at HK$90.550, indicating limited rebound strength.As of today (22nd), the latest share price is HK$91.9, up 1.49%.

Technically, BYD’s current price remains below the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$96.250, the 20-day MA at HK$99.565, and the 30-day MA at HK$102.530. All three key short-term moving averages are above the current share price, indicating continued short-term weakness. This setup suggests that even if the stock rebounds near HK$90, it will still face layer upon layer of resistance. HK$93.200—the previous day’s (21st) high—serves as the first short-term pivot point; if the stock fails to reclaim this level, the rebound cannot be considered meaningful. Subsequent key levels to watch are HK$96.250 and HK$99.565, which will determine whether the rebound can evolve from a weak recovery into a more pronounced strengthening trend.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$99.565, the upper band at HK$108.837, and the lower band at HK$90.293. BYD closed at HK$90.550, very close to the lower Bollinger Band at HK$90.293, indicating an obviously oversold short-term position and theoretically meeting conditions for a technical rebound. However, proximity to the lower band does not guarantee a bottom, especially as yesterday’s (21st) rebound occurred on reduced volume and the stock closed near its session low, signaling no significant increase in buying interest. If the stock holds above HK$90.300 and HK$90.293, there remains a chance for a technical rebound to develop from these lows; however, a break below HK$90.293 could extend the downtrend, with the next support level to watch at HK$88.500.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at approximately 18.723, clearly in oversold territory, reflecting insufficient short-term momentum. On one hand, this indicates the stock has fallen into an extremely low zone, where aggressive shorting at these levels is inadvisable; on the other hand, such weak momentum also shows the market lacks sufficient buying interest to re-enter. Retail investors commonly make two mistakes in such scenarios: first, hastily assuming a bottom simply because the price is near HK$90; second, blindly adding short positions due to perceived weakness. A more prudent approach is to treat HK$90.300 and HK$90.293 as short-term defensive lines and HK$93.200 as the confirmation level for any rebound. Holding near HK$90 merely prevents further deterioration—it’s only a breakout above HK$93.200 that would signal a meaningful rebound is underway.

From the key points in the comments, the market’s biggest divergence centers on whether the level around HK$90 has already become a short-term bottom. Bulls believe HK$90 may be nearing an extreme, with bearish momentum exhausted; if the stock price rises above HK$93.2 or HK$94.2, it could trigger short-covering and spark a sharp rebound. Some investors also note that BYD hasn’t continued to decline sharply amid a weak market, suggesting underlying support at lower levels—some have even chosen to buy directly or continue averaging down on dips. The core of this bullish sentiment is the belief that the HK$90 area offers strong support and that a rebound from this low is imminent.

From a technical perspective, this view has some merit, as the share price is indeed near the lower Bollinger Band, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is notably low, indicating short-term conditions for a technical rebound. However, bullish sentiment shouldn't rely solely on psychological support around HK$90; it also depends on whether the price can break back above HK$93.200. Yesterday (the 21st), the high was exactly at HK$93.200 but failed to hold, reflecting lingering resistance at this level. If the price can subsequently hold above HK$90.300 and HK$90.293 and then break above HK$93.200 again, the rebound signal would become clearer; otherwise, the current move can only be considered a weak bounce from a low level.

Bearish comments mainly focus on several points: first, some believe yesterday’s (21st) action was merely drawing lines to fake a bottom, and prices could keep falling tomorrow; second, others argue there are too many retail investors and that the rebound is just a bull trap; third, some think the Hang Seng Index’s weakness will drag down BYD, potentially pushing it down to HK$88; fourth, some worry about repeated false stabilization signals and feel more observation days are needed. These views align somewhat with the technical structure, as BYD’s current price remains below several key short-term moving averages, and yesterday’s (21st) rebound lacked volume confirmation, failing to confirm a true bottom. If HK$90.293 is breached, bearish arguments will gain significant traction, making HK$88.500 the next focal point.

Comments expressing uncertainty or posing questions reflect ongoing instability among holders. Some ask 'What’s your take?', others wonder if a rebound is possible after eight consecutive down days, someone nearly bought in at HK$92 but held back, and others question why the stock has weakened recently. These remarks indicate the market isn’t entirely bearish but is waiting for a turning-point signal. The issue is that although yesterday (21st) didn’t see a sharp drop, it also didn’t show clear signs of strength. Holding near HK$90 is just the first step; genuine market confidence will only improve if the price breaks back above HK$93.200 and then challenges HK$96.250.

Common questions can be grouped into three categories. First, is it time to bet on a BYD rebound? Rebound conditions exist—the price is near the lower Bollinger Band and RSI is low—but a successful rebound hasn’t been confirmed yet. Confirmation requires first holding above HK$90.300 and HK$90.293, then breaking above HK$93.200. Second, could it fall to HK$88? If HK$90.293 is broken, the downtrend may continue, with HK$88.500 becoming the next level to watch; however, as long as the HK$90 area holds, a drop to HK$88.500 isn’t yet confirmed. Third, is HK$93.2 important? Extremely important—yesterday’s (21st) high was exactly HK$93.200, marking a short-term pivot point. Only a breakout above this level opens the path toward HK$96.250.

In terms of short-term strategy, BYD currently offers neutral-to-low risk-reward appeal. Long positions aren’t entirely without opportunity, but confirmation is needed—traders shouldn’t rush in based solely on the perception that ‘HK$90 seems cheap.’ A valid technical rebound setup requires the price to hold above HK$90.300 and HK$90.293 and then break above HK$93.200. The next targets would then be resistance at HK$96.250 and HK$99.565. HK$96.250 aligns with the 10-day moving average; reclaiming it would signal easing short-term pressure. HK$99.565 corresponds to the 20-day moving average and the Bollinger Band midline—breaking above it would indicate a more meaningful recovery in price action.

Conversely, if the price breaks below HK$90.293, yesterday’s (21st) rebound could be deemed a failure. Although the price is already near the lower Bollinger Band and RSI is low—meaning shorting after a breakdown wouldn’t necessarily be risk-free—it would clearly signal escalating risk for existing holders. HK$88.500 would then become the next support level and a key focus for bearish commenters. At this stage, the clearest strategy is: defend HK$90, watch HK$93.2; above HK$93.2, target HK$96.25; below HK$90.293, guard against a drop to HK$88.5.

Overall, BYD showed some underlying support yesterday (21st) but didn’t truly turn stronger. The price rose modestly by 0.39% yet closed near its session low, with declining volume and all key short-term moving averages above the current price—indicating insufficient rebound momentum. On the comment front, bulls hope HK$90 marks the absolute low and anticipate short-covering triggered by a move above HK$93.2 or HK$94.2; bears view the rebound as a bull trap and still expect a drop toward HK$88; and those on the sidelines await confirmation of genuine stabilization. Technically, HK$90.300 and HK$90.293 serve as short-term defense lines, while HK$93.200 is the rebound pivot. Until BYD breaks above HK$93.200, it remains in a weak, corrective phase near lows; if HK$90.293 is lost, short-term weakness will deepen further.

Replying to investor comments one by one:

@EndOfTheBears@空軍之末日: For the HK$91–HK$91.5 range, first monitor whether HK$90.300 and HK$90.293 can hold firm. If the price reclaims HK$93.200 tomorrow, rebound conditions will improve; until then, bulls cannot claim a successful counterattack.

@SuperUltraMegaFortune@超級無敵大大大大發財Yesterday (21st), the broader market was weak, yet BYD did not decline sharply again, indeed reflecting some buying support around HK$90. However, turnover shrank, so it’s still unclear whether major players are actively lifting the price.

@WuWugui@吳無鬼For a 30,000-share position, pay close attention to the HK$90.293 support level. If this level holds and the price breaks above HK$93.200, the outlook improves; if HK$90.293 is breached, watch HK$88.500 next.

@Last-minute rider@最後一分鐘上車The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains notably low, indicating clear potential for a rebound. However, whether a genuine recovery begins depends on whether the stock can break above HK$93.200.

@The End of the Air Force@空軍之末日If the share price rises above HK$93.2, short-term rebound signals would indeed improve. However, yesterday’s (21st) intraday high was exactly HK$93.200, and it failed to hold—confirmation is still needed.

Key levels for BYD (01211): HK$90.300–HK$90.293 serves as near-term support. If held firmly, a technical bounce can be anticipated. A breakout above HK$93.200 would open the path toward HK$96.250–HK$99.565. If HK$90.293 is lost, downside momentum may extend, with initial support seen at HK$88.500.

Strategy 1 | Play a technical rebound if HK$90.293 holds

25677 | Strike price: HK$98.04 | Effective leverage: 8.8x | A rebound-oriented warrant positioned just above the current share price, suitable if the stock stabilizes near HK$90 and targets a short-term recovery above HK$93.200.

25843 | Strike price HK$98.04 | Effective leverage 9.2x | Higher leverage, suitable for aggressive short-term rebound plays, but the stock price must first stabilize at a low level; avoid buying aggressively when support levels are breached.

25538 | Strike price HK$97.94 | Effective leverage 9.1x | Strike price close to the same rebound zone; suitable for quick in-and-out short-term trades aiming to capture elasticity from a low-level bounce up to the first resistance level.

$UB-BYD @EC2607C.C (25677.HK)$$BP-BYD @EC2607C.C (25843.HK)$$CI-BYD @EC2607B.C (25538.HK)$

Strategy 2 | Chase rebound after breaking above HK$93.200

25678 | Strike price HK$106.98 | Effective leverage 8.1x | Suitable for chasing momentum after confirming a breakout above HK$93.200; strike price is above the near-term resistance zone, offering stronger upside potential, but avoid entering too early before the breakout occurs.

25528 | Strike price HK$106.98 | Effective leverage 8.3x | Best used when the stock breaks out and targets HK$96.250 and HK$99.565; focus on capturing continuation of the rebound rather than trying to bottom-fish at lows.

25647 | Strike price HK$106.98 | Effective leverage 8.1x | Better suited for entry after confirmation with trading volume; if the stock merely rebounds without surpassing HK$93.200, holding periods for such products should not be too long.

$UB-BYD @EC2608A.C (25678.HK)$$HS-BYD @EC2608A.C (25528.HK)$$GJ-BYD @EC2608A.C (25647.HK)$

Strategy 3 | Turn bearish after breaking below HK$90.293

24648 | Strike price HK$84.95 | Effective leverage 5.0x | Suitable for bearish positioning after a break below HK$90.293; strike price is below current market price, better suited to capture continued weakness toward below HK$88.500.

24617 | Strike price HK$84.98 | Effective leverage 5.1x | Slightly higher elasticity for downside plays; best used after the stock breaks below the lower Bollinger Band—focus on following the breakdown, and avoid initiating short positions before support is actually lost.

22314 | Strike price HK$81.83 | Effective leverage 8.7x | A more aggressive bearish option; only suitable after a clear break below HK$88.500, used to capture accelerated downside momentum, with relatively higher risk. $UB-BYD @EP2611A.P (24648.HK)$$BP-BYD @EP2611A.P (24617.HK)$$UB-BYD @EP2608A.P (22314.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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