SMIC faces clear resistance near the upper Bollinger Band at HK$80.162, requiring short-term consolidation.

SMIC is trading at HK$74.70, up 0.4%. Judging solely by performance, the stock price continues to rise and remains above key short-term moving averages, indicating the structure isn't weak. What truly merits attention today is that the price approached the upper Bollinger Band at HK$80.162 but ultimately pulled back to HK$74.70, highlighting significant resistance between HK$78 and HK$80. For short-term retail investors, today’s movement wasn’t simply a continuation of strength but rather a rally followed by profit-taking after hitting resistance. Short-term support needs reconfirmation—don’t ignore selling pressure just because the stock closed higher.

Technically, SMIC is trading at HK$74.45, above the 10-day MA (HK$72.990), 20-day MA (HK$70.910), and 30-day MA (HK$66.835). All three key short-term moving averages remain below the current price, suggesting the short-term structure hasn’t been compromised yet. This differs from many weak rebound stocks; SMIC isn’t experiencing a bounce after breaking below moving averages but rather a pullback following a strong uptrend. In other words, as long as support holds around HK$73.500 and HK$72.870, the stock could maintain a strong consolidation pattern. However, if it breaks below HK$72.870, the short-term uptrend will clearly weaken, with the next support level seen at HK$70.910.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$70.910, the upper band at HK$80.162, and the lower band at HK$61.658. SMIC’s current price remains above the middle band, reflecting an overall bullish short-term structure. However, yesterday (the 21st), the stock rallied close to the upper band at HK$80.162 but failed to stabilize at that level, pulling back sharply from HK$79.400—indicating notable resistance near the upper band. Such price action typically implies the need for short-term consolidation; the upper band shouldn’t be viewed as already broken. If SMIC can subsequently hold support at HK$73.500 and HK$72.870 and break above HK$78.000 again, it may then retest the resistance zone between HK$79.400 and HK$80.162.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at approximately 59.294, in a neutral-to-bullish range. Momentum hasn’t weakened yet but has declined from recent highs. This suggests the stock still retains some strength and hasn’t entered clear weakness, though upward momentum for short-term buyers has slowed. If the RSI remains in the neutral-to-bullish zone while the price holds near the 10-day MA, there’s still potential for another test of higher levels. However, if the price breaks below HK$72.870 and retreats further toward HK$70.910, momentum would shift from neutral-to-bullish to ordinary consolidation, reducing market confidence in another push toward HK$80.

Based on key comments, market sentiment is clearly split into two camps. Bulls argue that yesterday’s or recent strong bullish candle represents a genuine breakout with solid volume, viewing today’s movement as mere short-term volatility or washout. Others believe the stock has already bottomed and that the rebound can continue, with some investors even maintaining higher price targets. These bullish views are grounded in SMIC’s post-bottoming rally accompanied by rising volume and a still-favorable moving average structure, with the current price holding above key short-term MAs. From a technical standpoint, this bullish view isn’t unfounded—the stock hasn’t broken below the 10-day or 20-day MAs, so the strong structure hasn’t been fully invalidated yet.

However, bulls cannot ignore the issue of yesterday’s (21st) failed breakout after an intraday spike. The stock price has now tested the HK$80 level for the third time without success, and some comments noted, 'The third attempt to break HK$80 failed,' which clearly reflects strong resistance in the HK$78–HK$80 range. Unless the stock reclaims above HK$78.000, it cannot be said to be ready for another push toward HK$80. A reasonable short-term bullish condition is not simply chasing the stock higher just because it’s still rising; instead, one should first wait for support to hold firmly at HK$73.500 and HK$72.870, then observe whether the price can reclaim HK$78.000. Only after regaining a foothold above HK$78 would there be grounds to target HK$79.400–HK$80.162.

Bearish comments focused on buying at highs, the failed breakout followed by a pullback, expectations of further declines tomorrow, and targets down to HK$70 or even below HK$68. Some investors who bought near HK$77.35 are now worried, while others interpreted today’s high-volume gap-up opening as a signal to exit. Some even expect steeper losses tomorrow. These sentiments stem from today’s intraday pain: the price surged close to HK$80 but pulled back to around HK$74, causing significant discomfort for those who chased the rally. Technically, this bearish sentiment isn’t entirely unfounded—today’s selling pressure near the highs was indeed evident. If HK$72.870 is breached, the short-term uptrend will weaken, with the next key support at HK$70.910.

However, bearish investors should also note that SMIC has not yet broken below its key short-term moving averages or the middle Bollinger Band. Thus, it shouldn’t be directly labeled as weak. Unlike stocks that have already pierced below the lower Bollinger Band with extremely low RSI readings, SMIC currently remains in a phase of strong consolidation followed by profit-taking. If buying interest emerges around HK$73.500–HK$72.870, short sellers aggressively adding to their positions at these lows could face rebound risk. Therefore, it’s premature to conclude a full bearish reversal solely based on today’s pullback from highs; instead, attention should remain on whether the critical support at HK$72.870 holds.

Neutral and emotionally driven comments most frequently ask: ‘What happened?’, ‘Is this a shakeout?’, ‘I bought at HK$74—what should I do?’, ‘Will it drop below HK$70?’, and ‘After failing to break HK$80, I’m trapped again.’ All these questions revolve around a common core issue: today’s price action pressured those who bought high, yet the uptrend structure hasn’t been completely invalidated. For investors who entered near HK$74, the current price is close to their entry point. The priority isn’t immediate panic, but rather monitoring whether support holds at HK$73.500 and HK$72.870. If these levels hold, the stock still has room to consolidate and move higher; if HK$72.870 breaks, short-term downside risk will significantly increase.

Common questions can be grouped into three main ones. First, can SMIC attempt HK$80 again? Technically, yes—but only if it first holds HK$73.500 and HK$72.870, then reclaims HK$78.000. Only after stabilizing above HK$78 would it be reasonable to target the next resistance zone between HK$79.400 and HK$80.162. Second, what should those who bought at today’s highs do? If you chased in above HK$77, you’re now below a key short-term resistance level. Watch whether the price can retake HK$78; if instead it breaks below HK$72.870, your risk exposure will widen. Third, should one wait for HK$70 to enter? If HK$72.870 fails, the likelihood of a test of HK$70.910 increases; but if HK$72.870 holds firm, the market may never offer an entry near HK$70.

In terms of short-term strategy, SMIC currently offers a neutral-to-high risk-reward ratio but is unsuitable for chasing at elevated levels. The reason is that the stock remains above key short-term moving averages, its structure remains intact, and trading volume has expanded—all supporting the potential for continued strong consolidation. However, yesterday’s (21st) sharp pullback from HK$79.400 highlights significant selling pressure in the HK$78–HK$80 zone, making it easy for buyers chasing highs to get trapped. Therefore, a more prudent approach is to wait for stabilization before making any judgment, rather than blindly chasing near resistance levels.

Specifically, the first line of short-term defense is HK$73.500, with HK$72.870 as the critical second support. As long as this zone holds, the stock retains the potential to consolidate and attempt another move toward HK$78.000. A breakout above HK$78.000 would then open the path to retest the main resistance zone between HK$79.400 and HK$80.162—today’s high and the upper Bollinger Band vicinity. Only a confirmed break and close above this zone would validate continuation of the bullish momentum. Conversely, if the price falls below HK$72.870, the short-term uptrend will weaken, shifting focus to HK$70.910—the 20-day moving average and middle Bollinger Band. A breach of even HK$70.910 would significantly damage the current strong-consolidation structure.

Overall, SMIC is neither a weak stock nor has it successfully broken out. The price remains above key short-term moving averages, maintaining a relatively strong structure, and volume expansion indicates active market participation. However, the retreat from a high of HK$79.400 down to HK$74.45 clearly shows substantial selling pressure at higher levels. Bullish comments highlight sufficient volume and believe the stock can resume its upward move after a shakeout; bearish views argue that distribution occurred at highs, expect further declines tomorrow, and see potential retests of HK$70; neutral observers are debating whether buying at HK$74 is risky, whether HK$80 is an insurmountable barrier, and whether the recent pullback constitutes a shakeout. Technically, the picture is relatively clear: HK$73.500 and HK$72.870 form the short-term defensive line, HK$78.000 is the first hurdle for renewed strength, and HK$79.400–HK$80.162 is the primary resistance zone. Chasing longs is inadvisable before the price reclaims HK$78; similarly, it’s premature to declare the uptrend over unless HK$72.870 is breached.

Reply to market commentary:

@I Have a Name Now@我有名字了: Emotionally understandable, but short-term outlook must still rely on technicals. SMIC remains above key moving averages, and the uptrend cannot be deemed fully over until it breaks below HK$72.870.

@A Wealthy Crooked Potato:Repeated disappointment after each bout of hope stems from the failure to break through around HK$80. For greater confidence next time, the stock must first reclaim HK$78, then target HK$79.400–HK$80.162.

@TinyTinyTinyPig@小小小小豬: HK$67.5 is currently not far below the 30-day moving average near HK$66.835, but it isn't the nearest-term support. Short-term focus should first be on HK$72.870 and HK$70.910.

@Monster Attack: HK$120 is not the current short-term technical target. At this stage, attention should first be on whether HK$78, HK$79.400, and HK$80.162 can be broken through.

SMIC (00981) Deployment Focus: In the short term, watch whether HK$73.500 and HK$72.870 can hold firm. Only if these levels hold and the price reclaims above HK$78.000 will there be conditions to test the resistance zone between HK$79.400 and HK$80.162. If the price breaks below HK$72.870, the short-term uptrend weakens, and the next key support to monitor would be HK$70.910.

Strategy 1 | Bet on a strong rebound within a volatile range after holding above HK$72.870

19350 | Strike Price HK$69.04 | Effective Leverage 4.2x | Strike price below current market price, offering higher defensive capability; suitable for a relatively conservative rebound play after the stock holds above HK$72.870

19950 | Strike Price HK$80.00 | Effective Leverage 6.1x | Strike price near the HK$80 resistance zone; suitable for betting on a renewed move toward higher levels after the stock stabilizes again, offering more noticeable elasticity

25682 | Strike Price HK$80.05 | Effective Leverage 6.8x | Reacts quickly to a breakout above HK$78; suitable for capturing the price movement as it retests the HK$79.400–HK$80.162 range after short-term stabilization $UB-SMIC@EC2609A.C (19350.HK)$$BP-SMIC@EC2608A.C (19950.HK)$$UB-SMIC@EC2607A.C (25682.HK)$

Strategy 2 | Chase upward momentum toward the HK$80 resistance zone after breaking above HK$78

26841 | Strike Price HK$78.93 | Effective Leverage 3.6x | Strike price just above the breakout level; suitable for closely tracking the trend after the stock breaks above HK$78

25596 | Strike Price HK$81.81 | Effective Leverage 6.6x | Strike price slightly above the HK$80 resistance, with stronger elasticity; suitable for use when the breakout is confirmed with supportive trading volume and the stock accelerates toward higher levels

23604 | Strike price HK$83.88 | Effective leverage 4.2x | Higher strike price with moderate leverage—not overly aggressive—suitable for capturing an extended rebound after a breakout above HK$78; avoid premature use before the breakout.

$UB-SMIC@EC2612A.C (26841.HK)$$CT-SMIC@EC2608B.C (25596.HK)$$BI-SMIC@EC2611A.C (23604.HK)$

Strategy 3 | Go bearish if the price falls below HK$72.870.

28739 | Strike price HK$73.81 | Effective leverage 2.9x | Strike price close to current market price—ideal for catching the initial weakening move after a break below HK$72.870, offering a more direct response.

24259 | Strike price HK$67.00 | Effective leverage 3.3x | Strike price near the support zone at HK$66.835—suitable for targeting a pullback toward HK$70.910–HK$67 after a break below HK$72.870.

28854 | Strike price HK$62.58 | Effective leverage 4.0x | Lower strike price—appropriate for deploying aggressive bearish positions if the stock weakens further after losing HK$70.910 support. $HS-SMIC@EP2611B.P (28739.HK)$$BI-SMIC@EP2611A.P (24259.HK)$$UB-SMIC@EP2611A.P (28854.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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