English
Back
Open Account
港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · May 22 09:26

May 21 [HK Stock Podcast] Part-2 – BYD, HSBC, Ping An

4. After consecutive declines, BYD is nearing HK$90. The appropriate level to consider a short-term bounce is not by chasing higher prices, but rather by first watching whether HK$90 can hold firm.
BYD closed at HK$90.550, up HK$0.350 or 0.39%. Today’s low was HK$90.300 and the high reached HK$93.200. Although the stock posted a slight rebound at the close, it remains clearly in a weak position overall. The share price had previously declined from a high of HK$113.400 and has faced persistent downward pressure recently, falling to around HK$90 in the short term. On the daily chart, the current price remains below the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$96.250, the 20-day MA at HK$99.565, and the 30-day MA at HK$102.530—all key short-term moving averages sit above the price, indicating significant resistance to any rebound.
Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$99.565, the upper band at HK$108.837, and the lower band at HK$90.293. BYD closed at HK$90.550, very close to the lower Bollinger Band of HK$90.293, signaling that the stock has already reached the lower end of the channel in the short term. This area is now the most critical technical observation point: if the HK$90 level holds firm, a technical rebound becomes possible; however, if the stock breaks below both the lower Bollinger Band (HK$90.293) and today’s low of HK$90.300 without recovering, the downtrend will likely extend further, reducing the risk-reward ratio for any bounce attempt.
On the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI stands at approximately 18.723, the medium-term RSI at about 30.430, and the long-term RSI at roughly 39.580. The short-term RSI has dropped to an extremely low level, indicating that selling pressure has become highly concentrated in the near term and that a technical rebound is indeed plausible. However, an extremely low RSI merely reflects a sharp decline—it does not guarantee an immediate bottom. To confirm a valid rebound, the stock must first stabilize around HK$90 and then break back above HK$93.200.
In terms of volume, today’s trading volume was approximately 2198.22 (in millions), showing no extreme spike. Although the stock has stabilized slightly near HK$90 after consecutive declines, volume has not significantly expanded, suggesting there is still no clear, strong buying support at this stage. This implies that while a bounce trade may be conditionally viable, it is premature to assume a bottom has already formed.
An investor asked where to consider a rebound play after eight consecutive down days. Based on the current technical structure, the most reasonable entry point is not to chase the rebound on the upside, but rather to observe whether the HK$90–HK$90.300 zone can hold firm. This range aligns closely with today’s low of HK$90.300 and the lower Bollinger Band at HK$90.293, forming the first short-term defense zone. If the stock halts its decline near HK$90 and subsequently breaks above HK$93.200, it could be viewed as an initial rebound signal. The next upside resistance would then be at HK$96.250—the 10-day moving average—and a further break above that level would open the path toward the 20-day MA at HK$99.565 and the Bollinger Band middle band.
Conversely, if the stock price breaks below HK$90 and closes lower, it would be unwise to force a rebound trade. Once even the lower Bollinger Band is breached, it signals that the downtrend is not yet complete, and the price may need to seek new support levels further down. For investors looking to play a potential rebound, the HK$90 level can serve as the first observation point—but not an unconditional buy-in zone. A more prudent approach would be to wait for the price to hold above HK$90 and then see if it can reclaim HK$93.200, confirming underlying support before considering a rebound strategy.
In short-term strategy, BYD currently remains a candidate for a weak technical bounce rather than having turned bullish. Initial support is seen at HK$90.300 and HK$90.293, with a key pivot level around HK$93.200. If the stock holds above HK$90 and breaks above HK$93.200, short-term rebound conditions would improve, with the first resistance at HK$96.250. If the price fails to surpass HK$93.200, any rally would remain a minor technical correction within a downtrend; if it breaks below HK$90, rebound strategies should be abandoned until a new, clear support level emerges.
Overall, BYD has entered an oversold territory on the short-term chart after consecutive declines, making the HK$90 area a reasonable zone to watch for a potential bounce. However, there are still insufficient signals to confirm a trend reversal at this stage. A higher-probability rebound setup would require three conditions: holding above HK$90, reclaiming HK$93.200, and then challenging HK$96.250. If these three steps fail to materialize, the stock will likely remain in a weak, range-bound pattern near its lows, and it would be premature to conclude that a genuine rebound has begun. $UB-BYD @EC2608A.C (25678.HK)$$UB-BYD @EP2611A.P (24648.HK)$$BI-BYD @EP2611A.P (22322.HK)$$BI#BYD RC2612E.C (55019.HK)$
4. After consecutive declines, BYD is nearing HK$90. The appropriate level to consider a short-term bounce is not by chasing higher prices, but rather by first watching whether HK$90 can hold firm. BYD closed at HK$90.550, up HK$0.350 or 0.39%. Today’s low was HK$90.300 and the high reached HK$93.200. Although the stock posted a slight rebound at the close, it remains clearly in a weak position overall. The share price had previously declined from a high of HK$113.400 and has faced persistent downward pressure recently, falling to around HK$90 in the short term. On the daily chart, the current price remains below the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$96.250, the 20-day MA at HK$99.565, and the 30-day MA at HK$102.530—all key short-term moving averages sit above the price, indicating significant resistance to any rebound. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$99.565, the upper band at HK$108.837, and the lower band at HK$90.293. BYD closed at HK$90.550, very close to the lower Bollinger Band of HK$90.293, signaling that the stock has already reached the lower end of the channel in the short term. This area is now the most critical technical observation point: if the HK$90 level holds firm, a technical rebound becomes possible; however, if the stock breaks below both the lower Bollinger Band (HK$90.293) and today’s low of HK$90.300 without recovering, the downtrend will likely extend further, reducing the risk-reward ratio for any bounce attempt. In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI is approximately 18.723, the medium-term RSI is around 30.430, and the long-term RSI is about 39.58...
5. HSBC Holdings has stabilized above HK$140; the HK$155 target remains optimistic and first requires a breakout above the recent high of HK$144.017.
HSBC Holdings closed at HK$141.700, up HK$3.000 or 2.16%. Today’s trading range saw a low of HK$141.000 and a high of HK$143.500, with the closing price remaining above HK$141, indicating improved short-term support. From a daily chart perspective, the current price has moved back above the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$139.517, the 20-day MA at HK$139.672, and the 30-day MA at HK$139.970. This positions the stock above key short-term moving averages, reflecting a clear improvement compared to its previous sideways consolidation near HK$138–HK$140.
Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$139.672, the upper band at HK$142.921, and the lower band at HK$136.424. HSBC closed at HK$141.700, approaching the upper Bollinger Band at HK$142.921, indicating solid short-term rebound momentum—but also placing it in a relatively elevated position within the band. If the price can break above HK$142.921 and further challenge the HK$143.500–HK$144.017 range, the short-term strength may continue. If not, the stock is likely to consolidate first between HK$140 and HK$143.
In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI is approximately 59.009, the medium-term RSI around 55.874, and the long-term RSI about 55.537—all reflecting a moderately strong but not overheated condition. This suggests HSBC is not in an extreme state following a rapid speculative surge, but rather exhibiting gradually improving short-term momentum. Nevertheless, despite the strengthening momentum, confirmation of a new upward move requires the share price to break through overhead resistance levels.
Regarding trading volume, today’s turnover was approximately 1,698 units—unremarkable compared to some earlier high-volume days—but combined with the price breaking above short-term moving averages, it still indicates recovering support at lower levels. Since volume has not expanded dramatically, it remains necessary to monitor whether the upward momentum can sustain, particularly whether trading activity can support prices above HK$143.
Investors noted the stabilizing price trend and set a target of HK$155, holding bull certificates with a call price of HK$123. From the current technical structure, HSBC has indeed re-established support above short-term moving averages, showing a clearer improvement compared to its earlier sideways consolidation phase. At the current price of HK$141.700, there remains a significant buffer above the bull certificate’s call price of HK$123, meaning immediate recall risk is low, and the positioning aligns well with today’s price action.
However, the HK$155 target remains relatively aggressive for now, as the share price must first overcome the Bollinger Band upper band at HK$142.921, followed by today’s high of HK$143.500 and the recent high of HK$144.017. Only if the price breaks above HK$144.017 and sustains the move can a breakout from the recent consolidation top be confirmed—making higher targets more credible. If the stock fails to breach the HK$144 area, HK$155 remains more of a speculative mid-to-short-term possibility rather than a technically confirmed outcome.
For investors holding bull certificates, the key observation zone at this stage is between HK$140 and HK$139.672. As long as the price holds above the 20-day and 10-day moving averages, the short-term structure remains relatively stable. A drop below HK$139.672 would signal a return beneath the Bollinger Band middle band, weakening short-term strength. A further breach below the lower band near HK$136.424 would significantly increase the risk associated with bull certificate positions.
In terms of short-term strategy, HSBC currently exhibits a pattern of consolidating after gaining strength and testing higher levels again. Immediate support lies at HK$140 and HK$139.672, while near-term resistance levels are at HK$142.921, HK$143.500, and HK$144.017. If the price breaks above HK$144.017 and stabilizes, short-term upside potential will open up, creating conditions to gradually advance toward higher targets. If it fails to break through the HK$144 area, the stock is more likely to continue oscillating between HK$140 and HK$144.
Overall, HSBC Holdings showed notably stable price action today, with the share price moving back above key short-term moving averages. Coupled with a relatively strong RSI, the short-term outlook remains positive. While HK$155 is not entirely out of reach, it should not yet be treated as a confirmed target. The real key is first breaking above HK$144.017; if successful, the risk-reward profile for call warrants would improve further. However, if the price pulls back and loses HK$139.672, it would indicate that the current rebound has failed to sustain, warranting a reduction in bullish positioning. $BI-HSBC@EC2609B.C (22630.HK)$$UB-HSBC@EP2607B.P (25460.HK)$$BI-HSBC@EP2607B.P (25733.HK)$$UB#HSBC RC2809L.C (56147.HK)$$UB#HSBC RP2802A.P (62177.HK)$
4. After consecutive declines, BYD is nearing HK$90. The appropriate level to consider a short-term bounce is not by chasing higher prices, but rather by first watching whether HK$90 can hold firm. BYD closed at HK$90.550, up HK$0.350 or 0.39%. Today’s low was HK$90.300 and the high reached HK$93.200. Although the stock posted a slight rebound at the close, it remains clearly in a weak position overall. The share price had previously declined from a high of HK$113.400 and has faced persistent downward pressure recently, falling to around HK$90 in the short term. On the daily chart, the current price remains below the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$96.250, the 20-day MA at HK$99.565, and the 30-day MA at HK$102.530—all key short-term moving averages sit above the price, indicating significant resistance to any rebound. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$99.565, the upper band at HK$108.837, and the lower band at HK$90.293. BYD closed at HK$90.550, very close to the lower Bollinger Band of HK$90.293, signaling that the stock has already reached the lower end of the channel in the short term. This area is now the most critical technical observation point: if the HK$90 level holds firm, a technical rebound becomes possible; however, if the stock breaks below both the lower Bollinger Band (HK$90.293) and today’s low of HK$90.300 without recovering, the downtrend will likely extend further, reducing the risk-reward ratio for any bounce attempt. In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI is approximately 18.723, the medium-term RSI is around 30.430, and the long-term RSI is about 39.58...
6. Ping An fell close to HK$60 after breaking below its short-term moving averages, with HK$58 potentially becoming the next bearish watch level.
Ping An closed at HK$60.800, down HK$0.350 or 0.57%. Today’s high reached HK$62.300 and the low touched HK$60.700, with the closing price near the day’s low—reflecting weak near-term support. From a daily chart perspective, the current price is below the 10-day MA (HK$63.090), 20-day MA (HK$62.858), and 30-day MA (HK$62.570). All three short-term moving averages are now above the share price, indicating that the stock has retreated below key averages and remains in a bearish short-term trend.
Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band sits at HK$62.858, the upper band at HK$66.388, and the lower band at HK$59.327. Ping An closed at HK$60.800, already approaching the lower Bollinger Band but still slightly above HK$59.327. However, it is now close to this lower boundary. If the share price continues to break below today’s low of HK$60.700 in the near term, the next test would likely be around HK$59.327. Should the price also breach the Bollinger Band’s lower band, the widely cited HK$58 level could become the next bearish target.
In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI stands at approximately 21.628, the medium-term RSI at about 37.881, and the long-term RSI at roughly 44.153. The short-term RSI has dropped to a low level, reflecting the rapid pace of recent price declines and clearly weak near-term momentum. However, this also suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory on a short-term basis. If buying interest emerges near HK$60, a technical rebound cannot be ruled out. Thus, while bears currently hold the advantage, chasing short positions here is no longer low-risk.
On volume, today’s turnover was approximately 33.5068 million shares—not extremely elevated, but the low close near recent lows indicates that market buying interest has yet to strengthen noticeably. If the stock subsequently breaks below HK$60 accompanied by rising volume, bearish pressure would gain further confirmation. Conversely, if the price stabilizes near HK$60 on reduced volume and then reclaims above HK$62, the near-term downtrend could begin to ease.
Investors expect Ping An to fall back to HK$58 and have opened puts at HK$60 with a strike price of HK$54.95. From the current technical structure, this bearish stance aligns with the stock’s recent break below short-term moving averages. The share price now trades below the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day MAs, indicating that immediate resistance is concentrated between HK$62.570 and HK$63.090. As long as the stock fails to reclaim this zone, bears retain a technical edge.
However, HK$58 has not yet been fully confirmed as a target. The first key level now is today’s low of HK$60.700, followed by the Bollinger Band lower band at HK$59.327. Only if the price breaks below HK$59.327 and fails to recover would HK$58 shift from an emotional target to a more technically plausible downside objective. If support emerges between HK$59 and HK$60 and the price rebounds back toward HK$62, the attractiveness of these put positions would diminish.
Considering the put option with a strike price of HK$54.95, this position reflects a bearish extension strategy. If the stock breaks below HK$60 and continues declining toward HK$58, such bearish plays would have greater room to perform. However, if the price merely approaches the lower Bollinger Band and then rebounds—especially if it closes back above the short-term MA zone of HK$62.570–HK$63.090—bearish positions would need active risk management. Given that the stock is already near the Bollinger Band lower band and the short-term RSI is low, it is unwise to aggressively chase puts based solely on current weakness.
In terms of short-term strategy, Ping An remains in a bearish setup. Immediate support levels are at HK$60.700, followed by HK$59.327; a break below HK$59.327 would increase the credibility of the HK$58 target. On the upside, initial resistance lies at HK$62.570, HK$62.858, and HK$63.090—a dense confluence of short-term moving averages and the Bollinger Band midline. Unless the stock reclaims this zone, any rebound is likely to be viewed as a corrective move within a broader downtrend.
Overall, Ping An remains weak in the short term. A drop toward HK$58 is possible but would require confirmation by first breaking below the lower Bollinger Band at HK$59.327. For investors who opened put positions at HK$60, the trade is currently aligned with the trend, but the price is already approaching a short-term low zone. A more reasonable approach would be to focus on HK$60.700 and HK$59.327 as key observation levels: if the lower Bollinger Band is breached, bears could target HK$58; however, if the price rebounds back toward HK$63, it would signal that short positions are losing their technical edge. $HSPINAN@EC2810A.C (27554.HK)$$BPPINAN@EC2810A.C (21360.HK)$$SG#PINANRC2810C.C (66165.HK)$$HS#PINANRC2811B.C (56559.HK)$$HS#PINANRP2802A.P (56116.HK)$
4. After consecutive declines, BYD is nearing HK$90. The appropriate level to consider a short-term bounce is not by chasing higher prices, but rather by first watching whether HK$90 can hold firm. BYD closed at HK$90.550, up HK$0.350 or 0.39%. Today’s low was HK$90.300 and the high reached HK$93.200. Although the stock posted a slight rebound at the close, it remains clearly in a weak position overall. The share price had previously declined from a high of HK$113.400 and has faced persistent downward pressure recently, falling to around HK$90 in the short term. On the daily chart, the current price remains below the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$96.250, the 20-day MA at HK$99.565, and the 30-day MA at HK$102.530—all key short-term moving averages sit above the price, indicating significant resistance to any rebound. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$99.565, the upper band at HK$108.837, and the lower band at HK$90.293. BYD closed at HK$90.550, very close to the lower Bollinger Band of HK$90.293, signaling that the stock has already reached the lower end of the channel in the short term. This area is now the most critical technical observation point: if the HK$90 level holds firm, a technical rebound becomes possible; however, if the stock breaks below both the lower Bollinger Band (HK$90.293) and today’s low of HK$90.300 without recovering, the downtrend will likely extend further, reducing the risk-reward ratio for any bounce attempt. In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI is approximately 18.723, the medium-term RSI is around 30.430, and the long-term RSI is about 39.58...
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.
$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$ $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
191K Views
Report
Comments
Write a Comment...
11