Hang Seng Market Trend: Hardcore Tech in Favor! Time to Position in HK Stocks?

融慧财经

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[HK Stocks Podcast] | Post-Market Analysis for May 21: Hang Seng Index, Sunny Optical, Tencent, BYD, HSBC Holdings, Ping An

After breaking below short-term moving averages, the index is now approaching the lower Bollinger Band; 25,000 has become the bears’ psychological target, but immediate focus remains on the support/resistance around 25,340.

The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,386.52, down 264.60 points or 1.03%. The index opened at 25,655.12, reached an intraday high of 25,833.71 and a low of 25,341.73, closing near the day's low—indicating persistent short-term selling pressure. On the daily chart, the index has broken below the 10-day MA (26,039.93), 20-day MA (26,031.05), and 30-day MA (26,043.79). These three key short-term moving averages cluster between 26,030 and 26,045, forming a clear overhead resistance zone. Unless the Hang Seng Index rebounds above 26,000, its short-term trend remains bearish.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band sits at 26,031.05, the upper band at 26,664.44, and the lower band at 25,397.65. The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,386.52, slightly below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling that the short-term downtrend has reached the lower channel boundary. This typically reflects concentrated selling pressure, though it does not necessarily indicate an immediate bottom. The key will be whether the index can hold today’s low of 25,341.73. If the index continues to close lower and breaks below 25,341, the bears’ psychological target of 25,000 will likely become the next focal point.

In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI stands at approximately 24.377, entering notably oversold territory, indicating significantly weakened short-term momentum and confirming a meaningful decline. The medium-term RSI is around 37.897, lower than the longer-term RSI of approximately 44.777, suggesting that short-term weakness is more pronounced than medium- to long-term trends. In other words, the current pullback is not merely a strong correction but reflects a genuinely weakened short-term structure. Unless the index quickly recovers the 25,650–25,830 range, any rebound should temporarily be viewed as technical repair rather than a sustainable recovery.

On trading volume, today’s turnover was approximately 298.552 billion HKD, slightly higher than the previous day. Combined with the index’s decline and close near the day’s low, this suggests active selling rather than a simple low-volume pullback. This is unfavorable for the short-term outlook, as increased volume during a decline indicates unstable market support and continued dominance of bearish sentiment.

In terms of market sentiment, investor comments have clearly turned bearish. Bearish investors believe the Hang Seng Index (HSI) could drop to the 25,000 level—a view aligned with the current technical structure, where the index has neared the lower Bollinger Band and lost all short-term moving averages. However, 25,000 remains a psychological target for the next support level rather than an immediately confirmed technical level. In the near term, attention should first focus on whether the low of 25,341 can hold; only if this level is breached and closed below will downward pressure toward 25,000 intensify.

For investors holding bear warrants with a call price of 25,963, there is currently some profit cushion, as the HSI closed at 25,386.52—still a notable distance from the call price of 25,963. However, the risk with these bear warrants lies in a potential sharp rebound that pushes the index back into the 25,650–25,830 range, which would start eroding the risk-reward ratio for short positions. Should the index move closer to 26,000, the risk around the 25,963 call price would increase significantly. Therefore, holding these bear warrants is more suitable in line with the prevailing downtrend, rather than blindly adding short exposure when the index is already near the lower Bollinger Band.

In terms of short-term strategy, the HSI remains biased to the downside, with initial support seen at 25,341 and near the lower Bollinger Band at 25,397. If 25,341 is breached and not recovered within the same session, the next key psychological support would be 25,000. On the upside, resistance zones are clustered around 25,650, 25,833, and 26,031. Notably, the 26,031–26,044 range represents a confluence of the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages; only a firm re-establishment above this zone would signal potential improvement in the short-term weakness.

Overall, the short-term risk-reward profile for the HSI still favors the bears, though it is no longer the most comfortable entry point for adding short positions. Bears should monitor whether 25,341 holds; if broken, the credibility of the 25,000 target increases. Conversely, if the index rebounds near the lower Bollinger Band and climbs back above 25,833, short positions should tighten risk controls accordingly.

2. Sunny Optical surged sharply back above HK$68; HK$75 has not yet been confirmed—first watch whether it can stabilize above HK$68.53.

Sunny Optical closed at HK$68.600, up HK$5.850 or 9.32%. The share price rebounded strongly from an intraday low of HK$62.900, reaching a high of HK$70.250, and finished above HK$68, reflecting notably stronger short-term buying interest. On the daily chart, the price has reclaimed the 10-day MA (HK$65.085), 20-day MA (HK$64.978), and 30-day MA (HK$64.452). These short-term moving averages, which previously acted as resistance, have now turned into support, marking a clear improvement compared to the earlier consolidation between HK$62 and HK$66.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band sits at HK$64.978, the upper band at HK$68.530, and the lower band at HK$61.425. Sunny Optical closed at HK$68.600, slightly above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong short-term upward momentum but also entry into overbought territory. A sustained close above HK$68.53 would confirm a valid breakout; however, if the move higher is only a one-day spike followed by a pullback, the price may retest the moving average support zone around HK$65–66.

On the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI stands at approximately 68.557—approaching elevated levels but not yet extremely overbought. The medium-term RSI is around 61.847, and the long-term RSI is about 58.602. All three RSI lines are trending upward in unison, signaling a clear recovery in momentum. This is a positive aspect of today’s move, as the price action reflects renewed short-term strength rather than just a one-day bounce.

In terms of trading volume, today’s turnover expanded significantly, with the volume bar substantially higher than most recent sessions. Combined with the sharp price rise and strong closing level, this indicates solid volume support behind the rally. Compared to the prior period of sideways trading with steady but modest volume, today’s breakout on higher volume carries stronger technical significance. Near-term market focus will center on whether this breakout can be sustained.

An investor asked whether there’s still a chance to return to the HK$75 entry price. From the current technical setup, today’s sharp rally has reopened upside potential, though HK$75 cannot yet be confirmed as a near-term target. The critical first step now is whether the price can hold above HK$68.53 and maintain the bullish structure established after today’s breakout. If the stock consolidates around HK$68 and then breaks above today’s high of HK$70.250, it could gradually progress toward HK$75. Conversely, if it fails to hold HK$68 and retreats back into the HK$65–66 range, HK$75 would remain a distant rebound target, and it would be premature to consider it confirmed in the short term.

As for investors taking short positions via put options with a strike price of HK$58.99, this positioning runs counter to today’s strong rebound in the stock price. Since the share price has already reclaimed key short-term moving averages and broken above the upper Bollinger Band, the risk-reward ratio for chasing shorts in the near term is not favorable. Unless the stock price re-breaks below HK$68.53 and further loses support near the HK$65 moving average zone, bearish positions will likely remain against the prevailing trend for now. If puts are initiated solely based on expectations of a pullback following today’s sharp rally, the focus should be on risk management rather than simply waiting for a significant decline.

In terms of short-term strategy, Sunny Optical has shifted from sideways trading to a moderately strong rebound. Initial support levels are seen at HK$68.53 and the HK$65–HK$66 moving average zone, while immediate resistance stands at HK$70.250. Only if the stock breaks above and stabilizes beyond this level will it have the conditions to advance toward HK$75. Investors who entered positions near HK$75 previously should avoid concluding they’ve already recovered their entry price based solely on today’s sharp rally. A more prudent approach is to first observe whether the stock can break above HK$70.250 and maintain strength. For those taking short positions via puts, current technical indicators do not favor bearish bets; only if the price falls below HK$65 will the odds clearly tilt in favor of the bears.

Overall, Sunny Optical showed a notably stronger performance today, with a surge on higher volume coinciding with a reclaim of moving averages—signaling short-term improvement. However, the stock price is now approaching the upper Bollinger Band, making aggressive long entries relatively risky. The most critical short-term level is HK$68.53; as long as this holds, the rebound may continue. Should the price further break above HK$70.250, HK$75 would gradually shift from a psychological target to a more technically viable rebound objective.

3. Tencent broke below HK$440, and its weak trend remains intact; HK$400 is not yet confirmed as a target, but downward pressure persists.

Tencent closed at HK$439.000, down HK$16.200 or 3.56%. The stock traded between a high of HK$460.000 and a low of HK$438.400 today, closing near the session low—indicating sustained selling pressure into the close. The current price is below the 10-day moving average (HK$454.910), 20-day MA (HK$463.485), and 30-day MA (HK$476.163), reflecting a clear downward pressure from short-term moving averages. Until the stock reclaims these key averages, its technical posture remains weak.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$463.485, the upper band at HK$487.479, and the lower band at HK$439.491. Tencent closed at HK$439.000, slightly below the lower Bollinger Band, placing it in the lower end of the channel. This indicates pronounced selling pressure but also suggests the stock is nearing a short-term oversold zone. Chasing additional shorts from here may not offer an ideal risk-reward ratio. The immediate key level to watch is today’s low of HK$438.400; a close below this level could extend the downtrend further.

On the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI is approximately 28.729, the medium-term RSI around 33.831, and the long-term RSI about 37.360—all indicating relatively weak momentum. While the short-term RSI is nearing oversold territory, signaling a sharp recent decline, there is still no clear sign of a rebound. As long as the stock fails to recover above the HK$454–HK$463 range, the technical structure will remain bearish.

In terms of trading volume, today’s turnover was approximately 3,965.38 million shares—significantly higher than some recent sessions. Combined with the price decline and close near the session low, this confirms that the drop was accompanied by active selling. This suggests the current pullback is not merely a low-volume correction but reflects substantial selling pressure. For the short term, the combination of rising volume and a break below the Bollinger Band lower rail makes the market more cautious about near-term support.

Investors have asked whether the stock could fall to HK$400. Based on current technical levels, HK$400 cannot yet be confirmed as a near-term target, as there remains a notable gap between the current price of HK$439.000 and HK$400. The immediate levels to monitor are today’s low of HK$438.400 and the Bollinger Band lower rail near HK$439.491. If the stock breaks below HK$438.400 and fails to quickly recover, downward momentum would intensify. However, to consider HK$400 as a short-term target, we would first need to see sustained weakness below HK$440 and an inability to rally back above HK$454. In other words, HK$400 is a downside extension target under bearish sentiment, not a confirmed immediate objective at this stage.

As for investors taking bear warrants aligned with the current downtrend, with a call-back price of HK$506, this positioning aligns with Tencent’s current price action. The stock has broken below key short-term moving averages and is now near the lower Bollinger Band, giving bears a technical edge. Since the call-back price of HK$506 is still far from the current level, immediate knock-out risk is low. However, with the price already near the lower Bollinger Band, any short-term technical rebound could cause significant volatility in bear warrant prices. Thus, such positions are better suited for trend-following holders, with close attention to whether the stock remains below HK$454.910 and HK$463.485. If the price reclaims this zone, the risk-reward profile for short positions will deteriorate.

In terms of short-term strategy, Tencent remains in a bearish pattern. Initial support levels are seen around HK$438.400 and HK$439.491. If these levels are breached with a lower close, the market would then have room to seek even lower lows. Upside resistance is first seen at HK$454.910, followed by HK$463.485—these two levels are key hurdles for any short-term recovery. If any rebound only reaches around HK$454 before pulling back, the bearish trend remains intact; only a sustained move above HK$463 would signal an initial shift from weakness toward tentative recovery.

Overall, Tencent’s short-term bearish trend is clear. After breaking below HK$440, bears remain in control. HK$400 should not yet be directly treated as a confirmed target; however, if HK$438.400 is lost and the share price continues to trade below the HK$454–HK$463 range, market discussion around a move toward HK$400 will intensify. At this stage, the more reasonable view is that maintaining a bearish bias remains favorable, but the stock is already approaching the lower Bollinger Band—traders should avoid overly aggressive shorting immediately after sharp declines.

4. After consecutive declines, BYD is nearing HK$90. The appropriate level to consider a short-term bounce is not by chasing higher prices, but rather by first watching whether HK$90 can hold firm.

BYD closed at HK$90.550, up HK$0.350 or 0.39%. Today’s low was HK$90.300 and the high reached HK$93.200. Although the stock posted a slight rebound at the close, it remains clearly in a weak position overall. The share price had previously declined from a high of HK$113.400 and has faced persistent downward pressure recently, falling to around HK$90 in the short term. On the daily chart, the current price remains below the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$96.250, the 20-day MA at HK$99.565, and the 30-day MA at HK$102.530—all key short-term moving averages sit above the price, indicating significant resistance to any rebound.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$99.565, the upper band at HK$108.837, and the lower band at HK$90.293. BYD closed at HK$90.550, very close to the lower Bollinger Band of HK$90.293, signaling that the stock has already reached the lower end of the channel in the short term. This area is now the most critical technical observation point: if the HK$90 level holds firm, a technical rebound becomes possible; however, if the stock breaks below both the lower Bollinger Band (HK$90.293) and today’s low of HK$90.300 without recovering, the downtrend will likely extend further, reducing the risk-reward ratio for any bounce attempt.

On the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI stands at approximately 18.723, the medium-term RSI at about 30.430, and the long-term RSI at roughly 39.580. The short-term RSI has dropped to an extremely low level, indicating that selling pressure has become highly concentrated in the near term and that a technical rebound is indeed plausible. However, an extremely low RSI merely reflects a sharp decline—it does not guarantee an immediate bottom. To confirm a valid rebound, the stock must first stabilize around HK$90 and then break back above HK$93.200.

In terms of volume, today’s trading volume was approximately 2198.22 (in millions), showing no extreme spike. Although the stock has stabilized slightly near HK$90 after consecutive declines, volume has not significantly expanded, suggesting there is still no clear, strong buying support at this stage. This implies that while a bounce trade may be conditionally viable, it is premature to assume a bottom has already formed.

An investor asked where to consider a rebound play after eight consecutive down days. Based on the current technical structure, the most reasonable entry point is not to chase the rebound on the upside, but rather to observe whether the HK$90–HK$90.300 zone can hold firm. This range aligns closely with today’s low of HK$90.300 and the lower Bollinger Band at HK$90.293, forming the first short-term defense zone. If the stock halts its decline near HK$90 and subsequently breaks above HK$93.200, it could be viewed as an initial rebound signal. The next upside resistance would then be at HK$96.250—the 10-day moving average—and a further break above that level would open the path toward the 20-day MA at HK$99.565 and the Bollinger Band middle band.

Conversely, if the stock breaks below HK$90 and closes lower, attempting a rebound trade should not be forced. Losing even the lower Bollinger Band would indicate the downtrend is not yet complete, potentially requiring the price to seek new support levels further down. For investors looking to play a rebound, the HK$90 area can serve as the first observation point—but not an unconditional buy zone. A more prudent approach would be to wait for the price to hold above HK$90 and then confirm buying interest by breaking back above HK$93.200 before considering a rebound trade.

In short-term strategy, BYD currently remains a candidate for a weak technical bounce rather than having turned bullish. Initial support is seen at HK$90.300 and HK$90.293, with a key pivot level around HK$93.200. If the stock holds above HK$90 and breaks above HK$93.200, short-term rebound conditions would improve, with the first resistance at HK$96.250. If the price fails to surpass HK$93.200, any rally would remain a minor technical correction within a downtrend; if it breaks below HK$90, rebound strategies should be abandoned until a new, clear support level emerges.

Overall, BYD has entered a short-term oversold zone after consecutive declines, and the area around HK$90 is indeed a level worth watching for a potential bounce. However, there are still insufficient signals at this stage to confirm a trend reversal. A more favorable setup for a meaningful rebound would require the stock to hold above HK$90, reclaim HK$93.200, and then challenge HK$96.250. If these three steps do not materialize, the share price will likely remain in a weak, low-range consolidation, and it would be premature to conclude that a rebound has officially begun.

5. HSBC Holdings has stabilized above HK$140; the HK$155 target remains optimistic and first requires a breakout above the recent high of HK$144.017.

HSBC Holdings closed at HK$141.700, up HK$3.000 or 2.16%. Today’s trading range saw a low of HK$141.000 and a high of HK$143.500, with the closing price remaining above HK$141, indicating improved short-term support. From a daily chart perspective, the current price has moved back above the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$139.517, the 20-day MA at HK$139.672, and the 30-day MA at HK$139.970. This positions the stock above key short-term moving averages, reflecting a clear improvement compared to its previous sideways consolidation near HK$138–HK$140.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$139.672, the upper band at HK$142.921, and the lower band at HK$136.424. HSBC closed at HK$141.700, approaching the upper Bollinger Band at HK$142.921, indicating solid short-term rebound momentum—but also placing it in a relatively elevated position within the band. If the price can break above HK$142.921 and further challenge the HK$143.500–HK$144.017 range, the short-term strength may continue. If not, the stock is likely to consolidate first between HK$140 and HK$143.

In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI is approximately 59.009, the medium-term RSI around 55.874, and the long-term RSI about 55.537—all reflecting a moderately strong but not overheated condition. This suggests HSBC is not in an extreme state following a rapid speculative surge, but rather exhibiting gradually improving short-term momentum. Nevertheless, despite the strengthening momentum, confirmation of a new upward move requires the share price to break through overhead resistance levels.

Regarding trading volume, today’s turnover was approximately 1,698 units—unremarkable compared to some earlier high-volume days—but combined with the price breaking above short-term moving averages, it still indicates recovering support at lower levels. Since volume has not expanded dramatically, it remains necessary to monitor whether the upward momentum can sustain, particularly whether trading activity can support prices above HK$143.

Investors noted the stabilizing price trend and set a target of HK$155, holding bull certificates with a call price of HK$123. From the current technical structure, HSBC has indeed re-established support above short-term moving averages, showing a clearer improvement compared to its earlier sideways consolidation phase. At the current price of HK$141.700, there remains a significant buffer above the bull certificate’s call price of HK$123, meaning immediate recall risk is low, and the positioning aligns well with today’s price action.

However, the HK$155 target remains relatively aggressive for now, as the share price must first overcome the Bollinger Band upper band at HK$142.921, followed by today’s high of HK$143.500 and the recent high of HK$144.017. Only if the price breaks above HK$144.017 and sustains the move can a breakout from the recent consolidation top be confirmed—making higher targets more credible. If the stock fails to breach the HK$144 area, HK$155 remains more of a speculative mid-to-short-term possibility rather than a technically confirmed outcome.

For investors holding bull certificates, the key observation zone at this stage is between HK$140 and HK$139.672. As long as the price holds above the 20-day and 10-day moving averages, the short-term structure remains relatively stable. A drop below HK$139.672 would signal a return beneath the Bollinger Band middle band, weakening short-term strength. A further breach below the lower band near HK$136.424 would significantly increase the risk associated with bull certificate positions.

In terms of short-term strategy, HSBC currently exhibits a pattern of consolidating after gaining strength and testing higher levels again. Immediate support lies at HK$140 and HK$139.672, while near-term resistance levels are at HK$142.921, HK$143.500, and HK$144.017. If the price breaks above HK$144.017 and stabilizes, short-term upside potential will open up, creating conditions to gradually advance toward higher targets. If it fails to break through the HK$144 area, the stock is more likely to continue oscillating between HK$140 and HK$144.

Overall, HSBC Holdings showed notably more stability in today's trading, with its share price reclaiming ground above key short-term moving averages. Coupled with a relatively strong RSI, a bullish outlook can still be maintained in the near term. While HK$155 is not entirely out of reach, it should not yet be treated as a confirmed target. The real key is first breaking above HK$144.017; if successful, the risk-reward ratio for bull certificates would improve further. If the share price falls back and loses support at HK$139.672, it would indicate that the current rebound has failed to sustain, requiring a reassessment and reduction in bullish conviction.

6. Ping An fell close to HK$60 after breaking below its short-term moving averages, with HK$58 potentially becoming the next bearish watch level.

Ping An closed at HK$60.800, down HK$0.350 or 0.57%. Today’s high reached HK$62.300 and the low touched HK$60.700, with the closing price near the day’s low—reflecting weak near-term support. From a daily chart perspective, the current price is below the 10-day MA (HK$63.090), 20-day MA (HK$62.858), and 30-day MA (HK$62.570). All three short-term moving averages are now above the share price, indicating that the stock has retreated below key averages and remains in a bearish short-term trend.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band sits at HK$62.858, the upper band at HK$66.388, and the lower band at HK$59.327. Ping An closed at HK$60.800, already approaching the lower Bollinger Band but still slightly above HK$59.327. However, it is now close to this lower boundary. If the share price continues to break below today’s low of HK$60.700 in the near term, the next test would likely be around HK$59.327. Should the price also breach the Bollinger Band’s lower band, the widely cited HK$58 level could become the next bearish target.

In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI stands at approximately 21.628, the medium-term RSI at about 37.881, and the long-term RSI at roughly 44.153. The short-term RSI has dropped to a low level, reflecting the rapid pace of recent price declines and clearly weak near-term momentum. However, this also suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory on a short-term basis. If buying interest emerges near HK$60, a technical rebound cannot be ruled out. Thus, while bears currently hold the advantage, chasing short positions here is no longer low-risk.

On volume, today’s turnover was approximately 33.5068 million shares—not extremely elevated, but the low close near recent lows indicates that market buying interest has yet to strengthen noticeably. If the stock subsequently breaks below HK$60 accompanied by rising volume, bearish pressure would gain further confirmation. Conversely, if the price stabilizes near HK$60 on reduced volume and then reclaims above HK$62, the near-term downtrend could begin to ease.

Investors expect Ping An to fall back to HK$58 and have opened puts at HK$60 with a strike price of HK$54.95. From the current technical structure, this bearish stance aligns with the stock’s recent break below short-term moving averages. The share price now trades below the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day MAs, indicating that immediate resistance is concentrated between HK$62.570 and HK$63.090. As long as the stock fails to reclaim this zone, bears retain a technical edge.

However, HK$58 has not yet been fully confirmed as a target. The first key level now is today’s low of HK$60.700, followed by the Bollinger Band lower band at HK$59.327. Only if the price breaks below HK$59.327 and fails to recover would HK$58 shift from an emotional target to a more technically plausible downside objective. If support emerges between HK$59 and HK$60 and the price rebounds back toward HK$62, the attractiveness of these put positions would diminish.

Considering the put option with a strike price of HK$54.95, this position reflects a bearish extension strategy. If the stock breaks below HK$60 and continues declining toward HK$58, such bearish plays would have greater room to perform. However, if the price merely approaches the lower Bollinger Band and then rebounds—especially if it closes back above the short-term MA zone of HK$62.570–HK$63.090—bearish positions would need active risk management. Given that the stock is already near the Bollinger Band lower band and the short-term RSI is low, it is unwise to aggressively chase puts based solely on current weakness.

In terms of short-term strategy, Ping An remains in a bearish setup. Immediate support levels are at HK$60.700, followed by HK$59.327; a break below HK$59.327 would increase the credibility of the HK$58 target. On the upside, initial resistance lies at HK$62.570, HK$62.858, and HK$63.090—a dense confluence of short-term moving averages and the Bollinger Band midline. Unless the stock reclaims this zone, any rebound is likely to be viewed as a corrective move within a broader downtrend.

Overall, Ping An’s short-term trend remains weak, and a drop back to HK$58 is not out of the question—but this would first require a confirmed break below the lower Bollinger Band at HK$59.327. For investors who opened puts at HK$60, the current price movement is temporarily favorable; however, the stock is already approaching a short-term support zone. A more prudent approach is to closely monitor HK$60.700 and HK$59.327 as key reference levels. If the price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band, bears could target HK$58. Conversely, if the price rebounds back toward HK$63, it would signal that the bearish position is losing its technical edge.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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