SMIC faces key resistance between HK$80.100 and HK$80.566; a breakout requires confirmation by trading volume.

SMIC closed yesterday (20th) at HK$75.150, up HK$6.650 or 9.71%. The stock rebounded sharply from a low of HK$67.600, reaching an intraday high of HK$77.450, and remained above HK$75 at the close, showing clear short-term rebound strength. Today (21st), the stock traded at HK$78.25, up 4.13%. The current price has moved back above the 10-day moving average (MA) at HK$73.245, the 20-day MA at HK$70.165, and the 30-day MA at HK$66.233, significantly improving the moving average structure. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at HK$70.165, with the upper band at HK$80.566 and the lower band at HK$59.764. The price has now risen back above the middle band and is again approaching the upper band, indicating the trend has shifted from prior weakness to a moderately strong rebound pattern.

Sentiment in comments yesterday (20th) turned notably bullish. Bullish targets clustered around HK$76, HK$77, HK$78, HK$80, and HK$82, with some even directly eyeing HK$85 and HK$90. This reflects retail investors’ immediate reaction to yesterday’s large bullish candle, especially as the sharp price rise was accompanied by heavy trading volume, reigniting market belief that SMIC has room for catch-up gains. Some comments also noted that SMIC’s performance has lagged behind Huahong Semiconductor, suggesting that if capital continues flowing into the semiconductor sector, SMIC still has potential for catch-up gains.

However, many bearish and skeptical voices remain in the comments, primarily focusing on two concerns. First, there is worry about a gap-up open followed by a sell-off tomorrow—retracing gains and taking profits quickly. Such comments reflect investor caution regarding the sustainability of a single-day sharp rally. Second, some express dissatisfaction that SMIC’s gains still lag behind Huahong Semiconductor, feeling that SMIC—as a market focal stock—lacks strength. Some even argue that if forced to choose between SMIC and Huahong, capital might favor Huahong. This relative strength comparison is crucial, as yesterday’s semiconductor sector rally did not distribute capital evenly; the market naturally gravitates toward the strongest and most elastic stocks.

Neutral comments focus more on short-term trading questions. Investors asked whether to take profits now, what price targets to watch, whether the stock could reach HK$100, if HK$75 can hold as support, and why the price has repeatedly failed to break above HK$80. These questions precisely reflect SMIC’s current technical hurdles. The zone near HK$80.100 to HK$80.566 represents the next major resistance area. In other words, SMIC has already completed the first step—rebounding from lows back above key moving averages—and now must determine whether the rally can extend beyond HK$80.

Technically, the next upside target lies around HK$80.100 to HK$80.566. This zone coincides with the upper Bollinger Band, which explains why market comments repeatedly mention HK$80. If trading volume remains robust, breaking through HK$80 is feasible. On the downside, immediate support is the 10-day MA at HK$73.245, followed by the Bollinger Band middle band and the 20-day MA at HK$70.165.

The most positive signal yesterday was the clear surge in trading volume. Many stocks rebounded, but with insufficient volume, leading the market to suspect it was merely a weak bounce. SMIC was different yesterday—its price increase was accompanied by significantly higher volume, indicating signs of capital flowing back into the semiconductor sector. However, after such a sharp rise on high volume, another risk emerges: short-term profit-taking pressure will likely increase. If trading volume continues tomorrow and the share price breaks above RMB 77.450 and stabilizes there, the market will be more willing to target RMB 80.000–80.566. Conversely, if volume noticeably declines and the price fails to break above RMB 77.450, the stock could easily experience high-level volatility.

Judging from sentiment in comments, SMIC currently faces both catch-up expectations and pressure from underperforming Huahong Semiconductor. Bulls believe capital is returning to the semiconductor sector and that SMIC, as a core name, has room for catch-up gains. Bears argue that SMIC often lags behind Huahong and repeatedly hits resistance near RMB 80. These two views aren’t contradictory—SMIC has indeed strengthened recently, but hasn’t yet broken through its key resistance level. Short-term traders shouldn’t immediately target RMB 90 or even RMB 100 just because of yesterday’s strong rally, nor should they dismiss the rebound solely due to underperformance versus Huahong. The real answer lies at RMB 77.450.

In terms of short-term strategy, if SMIC holds support between HK$73.245 and HK$70.165 and breaks above HK$77.450, the rebound could extend toward the HK$80.100–HK$80.566 range. Only if it breaks above HK$80.566 on strong volume would higher targets become plausible. Conversely, if the stock fails to surpass HK$77.450 and drops below HK$73.245, the rebound’s momentum will weaken. If it falls further below HK$70.165, bearish pressure will re-emerge, with the next support level seen near HK$66.233.

Overall, SMIC’s move yesterday was a strong rebound, not just an ordinary correction. Its large gain, significant volume, and reclamation of key moving averages clearly signal short-term improvement. For retail investors, the priority now isn’t rushing to ask whether the stock can reach RMB 90 tomorrow, but rather watching whether it can hold above RMB 75, break through RMB 77.450, and sustain trading volume. Only if all three conditions are met will SMIC have a stronger chance of challenging levels above RMB 80.

SMIC (0981.HK) trading focus: In the short term, first defend the RMB 73.245–70.165 range. Holding above this zone supports maintaining a rebound strategy; the trend could test RMB 80.100–80.566. If the price falls below RMB 70.165, rebound momentum weakens, with next support around RMB 66.233.

Strategy 1 | Hold above RMB 73.245–70.165 to play for continued rebound

25682 | Strike Price: RMB 80.05 | Effective Leverage: 6.4x | Strike price close to the RMB 80 resistance zone. Suitable for deployment once the stock stabilizes near RMB 75, aiming to capture the continuation of the rebound from RMB 75 toward RMB 77.450 and RMB 80.

20113 | Strike Price: RMB 80.05 | Effective Leverage: 6.4x | Similarly high leverage, suitable for chasing momentum after the stock stabilizes above RMB 77.450. If volume continues to support the move, this warrant will respond directly to short-term upside.

26073 | Strike Price: RMB 80.05 | Effective Leverage: 6.6x | Highest elasticity, suitable for aggressive positioning after breaking above RMB 77.450, targeting the accelerated move toward RMB 80.100–80.566.

$DS-SMIC@EC2607B.C (26073.HK)$$HS-SMIC@EC2607A.C (20113.HK)$$UB-SMIC@EC2607A.C (25682.HK)$

Strategy 2 | Chase momentum above RMB 77.450 targeting RMB 80.100–80.566

26841 | Strike Price: RMB 78.93 | Effective Leverage: 3.6x | Strike price closer to current market price, suitable for a more stable momentum chase after breakout. May not offer the highest returns, but better suited for handling post-breakout pullback volatility.

27026 | Strike price HK$78.93 | Effective leverage 3.7x | Also close to the breakout zone; suitable for deployment after the stock price breaks above HK$77.450 and stabilizes, aiming to capture the medium-to-short-term upward move toward HK$80.

19950 | Strike price HK$80.00 | Effective leverage 6.0x | Strike price aligns directly with the HK$80 target zone; suitable for aggressive positioning after breakout confirmation, preferably used while the stock price approaches HK$80 but still maintains trading support. $UB-SMIC@EC2612A.C (26841.HK)$$HU-SMIC@EC2612A.C (27026.HK)$$BP-SMIC@EC2608A.C (19950.HK)$

Strategy 3 | Weakens if falling below HK$70.165, targeting around HK$66.233.

28739 | Strike price HK$73.81 | Effective leverage 3.0x | Strike price near current market price on the downside; suitable for relatively at-the-money bearish positioning around the time the stock price breaks below HK$70.165, primarily capturing the initial decline following a failed rebound.

28710 | Strike price HK$71.88 | Effective leverage 2.5x | Lower leverage; suitable for a more conservative bearish position when the stock price pulls back but hasn't shown a sharp drop yet, offering relatively higher tolerance to volatility.

28854 | Strike price HK$62.58 | Effective leverage 4.0x | Lower strike price with higher elasticity; suitable when the stock price clearly breaks below HK$70.165 and accelerates downward toward HK$66.233. Not appropriate for minor pullback scenarios. $HS-SMIC@EP2611B.P (28739.HK)$$BP-SMIC@EP2702A.P (28710.HK)$$UB-SMIC@EP2611A.P (28854.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should combine other information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

132K Views