May 20 [HK Stock Podcast] Part 2 – SMIC, Shanghai Electric, Meituan

4. SMIC rebounded back above HK$75; there is still a chance to reach HK$80, but it must first break through the intraday high of HK$77.45

SMIC closed at HK$75.150, up HK$6.650 or 9.71%. The share price rebounded sharply today from an intraday low of HK$67.600, reaching a high of HK$77.450, and closed above HK$75, indicating significantly improved short-term support. The current price has moved back above the 5-day moving average (MA) of HK$74.341, the 10-day MA of HK$73.245, the 20-day MA of HK$70.165, and the 30-day MA of HK$66.233. The short-term moving average structure has shifted from previous weakness to recovery, showing notably strong rebound momentum.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$70.165, the upper band at HK$80.566, and the lower band at HK$59.764. The current price of HK$75.150 has risen back above the middle band and is gradually approaching the upper band of HK$80.566. Investors asked whether there’s a chance to reach HK$80. From a technical perspective, reaching HK$80 is not entirely out of the question, but the key is for the share price to first break through today’s high of HK$77.450 and stabilize above HK$75. Only if the price breaks above HK$77.450 will there be a stronger short-term opportunity to move toward HK$80 and the Bollinger Band upper band of HK$80.566.

In terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term reading is approximately 63.695, with other readings around 61.987 and 59.154, reflecting renewed strengthening momentum, though not yet in extreme overbought territory. This suggests that after today’s sharp rally, SMIC still has conditions to sustain its rebound. However, given that the share price has quickly risen from a low of HK$67.600 to above HK$75, the risk-reward ratio for chasing the stock short-term is no longer as favorable as it was at lower levels. In terms of trading volume, the latest turnover has clearly expanded, supporting the sharp price increase and indicating that today’s rebound was backed by real buying interest, rather than just a weak technical bounce.

For bearish investors who believe the stock couldn’t even stabilize at HK$77, waiting until HK$68 to enter carries a certain defensive logic. Today’s high reached HK$77.450, but it closed at HK$75.150, indicating lingering selling pressure above HK$77. If tomorrow the share price fails to reclaim HK$77.450 and falls below the moving average zone of HK$73.245–HK$74.341, the rebound momentum will weaken. In that case, waiting until around HK$68 to consider entry would be more conservative than chasing at higher levels. However, if the price holds above HK$75 and retests HK$77.450, waiting too early for HK$68 might cause one to miss a short-term rally.

As for investors taking short positions via bear warrants with a call-back price of HK$84, the risk of this strategy lies in the fact that SMIC has already moved back above several short-term moving averages, and its technical trend is recovering. Although the call-back price of HK$84 remains a fair distance from the current price of HK$75.150, if the share price breaks above HK$77.450 and advances toward the upper Bollinger Band at HK$80.566, bear warrant holders will face mounting pressure. Therefore, deploying bear warrants is more suitable under the assumption that HK$77.450 won’t be breached; if the price stabilizes above HK$77, short positions should heighten their caution.

In terms of short-term strategy, SMIC currently faces a pivotal level near HK$77.450. If the share price breaks above and stabilizes beyond this level, the short-term target could shift upward toward the HK$80–HK$80.566 range. If it fails to break through HK$77.450 and retreats below HK$75, the stock will likely enter a phase of consolidation at higher levels. Only if it further breaks below the key support levels of HK$73.245 and HK$70.165 would the rebound structure show clear signs of weakening. Overall, today’s rebound was relatively strong, and there is technical potential for a move toward HK$80—but this isn’t yet confirmed. The key remains whether HK$77.450 can be convincingly breached. $BI-SMIC@EC2612A.C (19823.HK)$$CI-SMIC@EC2607C.C (25536.HK)$$HS#SMIC RC2610C.C (63039.HK)$$UB#SMIC RP2704D.P (63354.HK)$

5. Shanghai Electric surged sharply, breaking above HK$5. Short-term momentum remains strong, but the reward-to-risk ratio for entering at current prices has declined.

Shanghai Electric closed at HK$5.240, up HK$0.350 or 7.16%. The stock hit an intraday high of HK$5.330 and a low of HK$4.750, closing firmly above HK$5.20, signaling a clear acceleration in its short-term uptrend. The current price sits above the 5-day (HK$5.136), 10-day (HK$4.445), 20-day (HK$4.179), and 30-day (HK$4.105) moving averages, reflecting that the share price has fully reclaimed all key short-term moving averages and shifted from earlier sideways consolidation into a strong breakout pattern.

Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$4.179, the upper band at HK$4.935, and the lower band at HK$3.423. The current price of HK$5.240 has already pierced above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the stock has entered a strong short-term rally zone—but also suggesting that valuations are now stretched. If the price continues to hold above HK$5.00 and HK$5.10, the uptrend may persist; however, if it fails to extend gains after breaching the upper band, the stock could easily experience high-level volatility or a short-term pullback.

On the Relative Strength Index (RSI), short-term readings stand at approximately 88.255, with other sets at roughly 79.405 and 67.850, reflecting extremely strong momentum—but also nearing clearly overbought territory. This type of move favors investors who already hold positions, as the stock remains in a strong extension phase; however, for new entrants, the reward-to-risk ratio is no longer as favorable as it was during the initial breakout stage. In terms of volume, the latest trading volume stands at approximately 1,761.86 million shares, showing a notable recent increase. Coupled with the sharp price rise, this confirms the breakout is supported by active capital flows rather than being a mere low-volume rally.

Investors ask whether it’s still advisable to enter now and what upside targets to consider. Given the current trend, Shanghai Electric remains short-term bullish, but HK$5.240 should not be viewed as a low-risk entry point. The stock has already broken above the upper Bollinger Band, and the recent surge has been rapid. For new entries, a more reasonable approach would be to wait for a pullback to the HK$5.00–HK$5.10 range and confirm that support holds before considering entry. If the stock doesn’t retrace and instead continues rising directly, it must first break above today’s high of HK$5.330 to confirm further extension of the uptrend.

In terms of upside potential, the first target is today’s high of HK$5.330. If the share price breaks above HK$5.330 and stabilizes, the short-term strength could extend further—but given that the price is already significantly above the upper Bollinger Band, profit-taking pressure should be closely monitored with every subsequent move upward. Conversely, if the price falls below HK$5.10, it signals cooling momentum following the strong breakout; if it further breaks below HK$5.00 and the upper Bollinger Band at HK$4.935, the short-term trend could shift from a sharp rally into a pullback or consolidation phase.

For short-term strategy, existing holders can use the HK$5.00–HK$5.10 range as a defensive zone—if support holds, they can continue monitoring whether HK$5.330 will be breached. New entrants should avoid blindly chasing the rally after such a sharp move; better entry points would be either after a pullback that still holds above HK$5.00, or after a confirmed breakout above HK$5.330 with sufficient follow-through buying. Overall, Shanghai Electric shows clear short-term strength, but current prices represent a high-risk chase—reward-to-risk now hinges on whether the stock can hold above HK$5.00 and break through HK$5.330. $BI-SHEC@EC2702A.C (25379.HK)$$BP-SHEC@EC2702A.C (29184.HK)$

6. Meituan is holding above HK$83 but has not yet shown strength; HK$86 is the key short-term level to watch for entry.

Meituan closed at HK$82.850, up HK$0.200 or 0.24%. The stock reached a high of HK$83.700 and a low of HK$82.100 today, closing slightly above its opening price near HK$83.000. However, it remains in a narrow sideways trading range overall. The current price is below the 5-day moving average (MA) at HK$82.875, the 10-day MA at HK$84.085, the 20-day MA at HK$83.485, and the 30-day MA at HK$84.617, indicating that the stock has not yet moved back above key short-term moving averages and the short-term structure has not strengthened.

Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at HK$83.485, the upper band at HK$86.439, and the lower band at HK$80.531. The current price of HK$82.850 is below the middle band but still above the lower band, suggesting the stock is not in a sharp downtrend but consolidating sideways between HK$80.5 and HK$86.4. If the price can break back above the middle band at HK$83.485 and stabilize above the 10-day MA (HK$84.085) and 30-day MA (HK$84.617), the short-term technical picture would improve. However, if the stock remains capped below the HK$84–HK$86 range, the trend will likely stay choppy.

On the Relative Strength Index (RSI), short-term readings are around 43.187, with other readings at approximately 46.705 and 47.710, reflecting weak-to-neutral momentum without clear signs of strengthening. In terms of volume, the latest turnover was about 25.16 million shares, showing no significant surge in trading activity. Combined with the stock’s continued sideways movement, this suggests the market currently lacks sufficient momentum to push the price out of its range.

Some investors believe the stock needs to hold firmly above HK$86 before considering entry—a reasonable judgment. HK$86 is close to the Bollinger Band upper rail at HK$86.439 and also sits above the current cluster of short-term moving average resistance levels. Only if Meituan breaks and sustains above HK$86 can it be considered a genuine breakout from its recent consolidation range, improving the risk-reward ratio for short-term entries. Conversely, buying into repeated moves within the HK$82–HK$84 zone risks entering midway through a directionless range, offering limited upside potential.

Some investors are also monitoring bear warrants with a call price of HK$93. Given the current price action—Meituan failing to reclaim key moving averages—the short-term outlook indeed remains weak, providing some technical basis for bearish positions. Although the call price of HK$93 still offers a buffer from the current price of HK$82.850, a sudden breakout above HK$86 and further extension beyond the upper Bollinger Band would increase pressure on short positions. Therefore, deploying bear warrants is more suitable only if the stock fails to break above HK$86 and remains confined within the HK$84–HK$86 range. If the price stabilizes above HK$86, short positions should reassess their risk exposure.

In terms of short-term strategy, the key pivot level for Meituan lies around HK$86. Until the stock breaks above HK$86, it will remain in a sideways trading range, with initial support near HK$82 and further support at the Bollinger Band lower rail of HK$80.531. A break below HK$80.531 would shift the trend from consolidation to weakness, whereas a sustained move above HK$86 would signal a breakout from the consolidation zone and create conditions for renewed short-term strength. Overall, it is advisable not to rush into long positions at this stage; waiting for confirmation of a breakout above HK$86 offers a safer entry. For bearish setups, HK$86 should serve as the primary risk boundary. $UB#MTUANRC2609B.C (65259.HK)$$SG#MTUANRC2610F.C (64090.HK)$$SG#MTUANRP2812F.P (56158.HK)$$UB#MTUANRP2812C.P (55606.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should combine other information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$

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