Copper: Watch NVIDIA's earnings release on May 20

[Market Recap] COMEX copper settled at USD 6.194 per pound overnight, down 1.92%; LME copper closed at USD 13,427 per tonne, down 1.18%. The most active SHFE copper contract settled at CNY 103,670 per tonne, down 0.71%; international copper closed at CNY 91,940 per tonne, down 0.69%. The basis after the close was CNY 280 per tonne, down CNY 70 per tonne from the previous trading day, with a basis rate of -0.27%. The SHFE/LME ratio stood at 7.69, versus 7.70 previously.

[Industry Updates]

1. Registered copper warrants at SHFE totaled 102,250 tonnes, up 97 tonnes from the prior day; SHFE copper inventory stood at 180,643 tonnes, down 690 tonnes from the prior week (as of May 15). LME copper inventory was 394,675 tonnes, up 1,275 tonnes from the prior day; LME registered copper warrants were 328,225 tonnes, up 350 tonnes from the prior day, with canceled warrants at 66,450 tonnes. COMEX copper inventory totaled 629,676 tonnes, up 2,481 tonnes from the prior day.

2. Copper prices retreated from recent highs yesterday, with the pace of decline slowing. Downstream sentiment improved slightly, and buying interest at lower levels remained decent, providing modest support to the physical market and slowing the decline in premiums. According to Shanghai Metals Market, the spot price range for Grade 1 electrolytic copper was CNY 103,800–104,700 per tonne, with an average of CNY 104,250 per tonne, up CNY 130 per tonne from the previous trading day, quoted at a discount of CNY 100 to CNY 20 per tonne against the SHFE June 2026 contract. As of midday close, premium-grade copper was quoted at a discount of CNY 50–20 per tonne, standard-grade copper at a discount of CNY 100–70 per tonne, wet-process copper at a discount of CNY 150–120 per tonne, and non-registered copper at a discount of CNY 200–180 per tonne.

3. According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories declined last week, standing at 393,400 metric tons—the highest level in over twelve years. Unlike most other metals, whose inventories are concentrated in Asia with relatively low levels in North America, LME copper inventories show a notably higher share held in North America. This structural shift is primarily driven by disruptions from U.S. tariff policies, prompting traders to engage in cross-market arbitrage and stockpile copper as a financial asset in the United States, thereby reducing available LME inventories in key consuming regions like Asia. Meanwhile, the latest data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange shows that copper inventories in Shanghai fell slightly during the week ending May 15, dropping by 0.38% to 180,643 metric tons—the lowest level in over four months. International copper inventories rose by 3,206 metric tons to 23,200 metric tons. Last week, COMEX copper inventories continued to climb, reaching a record high of 629,676 metric tons.

4. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 5.177%, its highest level since 2007.

[Nanhua Research View] On the day, silver led the decline, with most base metals falling. Copper prices rebounded to 104,500 before encountering stronger resistance, and significant capital outflows continued during the night session. On Nanhua’s research platform, both long and short positions listed on the 'Dragon-Tiger' rankings continued to decline. Foreign investors reduced their net long positions from elevated levels, while the top five conservative trading seats saw little change in their net long holdings. From a technical perspective, attention should be paid to resistance around 104,000–104,500–105,000 and support near 103,500–103,300–103,000. Traders should closely monitor the elasticity at these range boundaries; if open interest does not expand significantly going forward, continue to trade within the range by buying low and selling high.

Author: Fu Xiaoyan Z0002675, NH Research Institute

Important Disclaimer: The content and opinions in this report are for learning and reference purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks, and investments should be made with caution.

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