MINIMAX turned weaker after breaking below the 787.000 midpoint; retail investors are waiting for the M3 model to rescue the stock, but it remains inadvisable to aggressively chase rebounds until the range between 779.000 and 787.000 is reclaimed.

It closed at HK$742.500 yesterday (the 19th), with a clear short-term weakening trend. The share price has fallen below the 10-day moving average (MA) of HK$779.750, the 20-day MA of HK$787.000, and the 30-day MA of HK$837.133, indicating that the previous rebound structure failed to sustain itself, and all key short-term MAs have now turned into overhead resistance. The Bollinger Bands’ midline sits at HK$787.000, with the upper band at HK$911.253 and the lower band at HK$662.747. The current price of HK$742.500 has already dropped below the midline, re-entering a relatively weak short-term zone. Although HK$742.500 remains above the support level of HK$725.000, the upside potential for a rebound remains limited unless the stock can break back above the HK$779.750–HK$787.000 range.

Judging from the comments, market sentiment toward MINIMAX is highly divided. Bulls still believe the AI large-model theme is not over yet, arguing that MiniMax offers multimodal capabilities and global C-end potential. Some investors are anticipating the M3 model, a return to June’s highs, and even a rally back above HK$800. Some even interpret yesterday’s low-volume decline as institutional shakeout. Such comments reflect that the market is still willing to position MINIMAX within the Hong Kong-listed AI large-model thematic group, alongside $KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (02513.HK)$ 、 $DEEPEXI TECH (01384.HK)$ other related concept stocks for observation. For some investors, MINIMAX is not just an ordinary short-term trading stock but still holds thematic upside within the AI narrative.

However, bullish comments also reveal a strong speculative mindset focused on catching a rebound. Some investors opened positions at HK$735, others bought two lots at HK$760 for a quick play, some noted that yesterday’s price held up better than usual, and others hoped for a late-day surge or an afternoon breakout to push the stock back above HK$800 this week. These comments suggest many investors are attempting to buy the dip around HK$725–HK$760, but most are speculating on a short-term bounce rather than confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Technically, the stock remains below HK$779.750 and HK$787.000; unless it reclaims this resistance zone, any so-called rebound should only be viewed as a short-term correction within a weak trading range.

Bearish sentiment in comments is becoming more pronounced. Many investors believe the stock suffers from low turnover, thin trading volume, and a complete lack of momentum—some even describe the price as steadily declining. Holders report being trapped after buying at HK$815 and HK$830, while others regret entering at HK$728 and failing to exit at HK$860, reflecting significant psychological pressure on capital that chased the stock at higher levels. The core issue behind these comments isn’t just the single-day decline, but rather the market’s waning confidence in MINIMAX’s ability to rebound. When a stock falls in line with its sector but fails to keep pace during rallies, retail investors naturally question whether it still holds its leading position.

Technically, MINIMAX’s first support level currently sits at HK$725.000. With the current price at HK$742.500, it is not far from this level, so near-term focus should be on whether HK$725 can hold. If HK$725 holds firm, the stock may consolidate sideways at this lower level before attempting a rebound. However, if it breaks below HK$725, weakness could persist, bringing attention to the lower Bollinger Band around HK$662.747. Comments mentioning HK$680, HK$650, and HK$600 precisely reflect how market focus has already shifted toward the next potential downside zones. Should HK$725 give way, discussions around these lower levels will likely intensify further.

On the upside, HK$779.750 and HK$787.000 represent the most critical resistance zone for recovery. HK$779.750 aligns with the 10-day moving average, while HK$787.000 coincides with both the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. For the stock to regain strength, it must first break above this range. A rebound from HK$742 to around HK$760—without surpassing HK$779–HK$787—would still lack confirmation. Only by reclaiming HK$787 would the technical setup allow for a potential recovery toward HK$837.133. Targets like HK$911.253 or the HK$1,100 mentioned in market chatter remain distant; discussing them prematurely is unwarranted until HK$787 is retaken.

Trading volume is one of MINIMAX’s biggest current issues. Recent volume has been notably low, sharply reduced compared to earlier high-volume days, indicating a decline on shrinking volume. This pattern carries dual interpretations. On the positive side, the absence of panic-driven volume spikes on the downside suggests selling pressure hasn’t been aggressively released. On the negative side, rebounds also lack volume support, signaling insufficient buying interest in the near term. For short-term traders, a low-volume decline doesn’t necessarily imply safety—if the market lacks active buyers, the stock might merely drift sideways in weakness near HK$725 without meaningful upside potential.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at approximately 40.931, indicating weak momentum but not yet reaching extreme oversold territory. This means MINIMAX hasn’t fallen to a technically oversold level where ‘it’s dropped a lot’ alone would justify buying the dip. Compared to stocks whose RSI has already plunged into deeply oversold zones, MINIMAX appears to be undergoing weak consolidation after breaking below its mid-Bollinger Band—not a high-probability bounce setup from oversold conditions. Therefore, chasing the stock here offers poor risk-reward unless it reclaims the HK$779.750–HK$787.000 zone, as rebound confirmation remains insufficient otherwise.

Regarding common market questions: First, can one establish a position at the current price? The HK$735–HK$742 range sits just above the HK$725 support, offering a technical rationale for small试探 positions—but with a clear stop-loss at HK$725. If HK$725 breaks, the ‘buy-the-dip’ logic should no longer be forced. Second, can the stock return to HK$800? Reaching HK$800 requires first clearing HK$779.750 and HK$787.000; only by reclaiming the mid-Bollinger Band would HK$800 become a viable near-term discussion point. Third, can the M3 model or AI theme drive a return to previous highs? While thematic sentiment may improve mood, without accompanying volume and a confirmed breakout above HK$787, the narrative hasn’t yet translated into actual capital commitment.

Overall, MINIMAX’s near-term risk-reward profile is neutral-to-bearish. The price has already broken below key short-term moving averages and the middle Bollinger Band, and the rebound structure has failed to sustain. Although support near HK$725 remains intact, the stock can only be viewed as undergoing weak consolidation at lower levels until it reclaims HK$779.750–HK$787.000. The near-term strategy should focus first on whether HK$725 holds. If it holds and the price subsequently breaks above HK$779.750 and HK$787.000, the technical setup could then support a move toward HK$837.133. Conversely, a break below HK$725 would extend the downtrend, shifting focus to HK$662.747. MINIMAX isn’t devoid of AI-themed appeal, but at this stage, investors should wait for price action to confirm strength—not chase based on stories alone.

Reply to some investors' views:

@卡皮布達: Has everyone fully loaded their positions yet?

There’s still no confirmation of a strengthening trend, so it’s unwise to rush into a full position—the HK$725 support level must hold first.

@231423850: Opened a position at HK$735—let’s see what happens.

At RMB 735, it's near the support level from above—suitable for a trial position, but set RMB 725 as your stop-loss.

@唔賭唔心息: Hoping for a rebound to 800

To reach 800, it must first break through RMB 779.750 and RMB 787.000; until then, confirmation remains difficult.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated using other sources of information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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