Meituan is nearing support at 81 yuan; what retail investors fear most is not breaking below 80 yuan, but the fact that every rebound lacks strength to reverse the trend.

Meituan-W is trading at HKD 83.4, remaining in a weak sideways pattern in the short term. The stock price is below the 10-day moving average of HKD 84.100, the 20-day moving average of HKD 83.770, and the 30-day moving average of HKD 84.493, indicating continued weakness in the medium to short term. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is around HKD 83.770, the upper band is near HKD 87.025, and the lower band is approximately HKD 80.515. The current price is close to the lower band, reflecting persistent selling pressure in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 37, showing weak momentum but not yet reaching extreme oversold levels, suggesting that although the stock price has approached the support zone, there are no clear signs of panic bottoming.

Judging from the sentiment in the comments, Meituan’s main issue right now isn’t the complete absence of bullish voices, but rather the lack of strong supporting reasons for being bullish. Some investors are still watching net inflows of capital, CICC’s buying activity, Citibank’s target price, Alibaba’s upward movement as a catalyst, and the possibility of a recovery after consolidation within a large triangle pattern. These comments reflect that there is still some capital in the market that believes Meituan has conditions for a rebound, especially since the current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band and near support at around 81 yuan. If there is buying interest in the short term, a technical rebound could occur.

However, among the bullish comments, there is noticeable anxiety. Some hope for a reversal by the closing bell, others anticipate a rise to HKD 90, some are asking if it’s time to buy, while others believe the falling market needs Meituan to prop up the index. These sentiments reflect that bulls are waiting for the stock price to prove itself again, but the reality is that Meituan has yet to break above the critical level near HKD 84. As long as the stock remains below HKD 84, even if there is a rebound during the session, it should still be viewed as a pullback within a weak range rather than a structural strengthening.

Bearish comments better reflect the market's disappointment with Meituan. Several investors mentioned that Meituan falls quickly but rises slowly, unable to stabilize at 82 yuan, and some even worry about downside pressure nearing the 70-yuan level, breaking below 80 yuan, or targeting 75 yuan or lower. Some questioned the company’s growth potential, competitive pressures, and management’s narrative, indicating that market patience with Meituan has clearly diminished. For retail investors, the most painful part is not the single-day drop, but rather the limited upside during rebounds, followed by a swift return to support zones when falling, making the overall holding experience persistently negative.

One core sentiment is that Meituan lacks relative strength compared to other large-cap tech stocks or popular shares. Some comments mention Alibaba's significant rise and Xiaomi's increase while Meituan hasn’t moved, and others think that without support from other stocks, Meituan could fall further. This shows that the market isn't just looking at Meituan itself but comparing it with other stocks in the same sector. When other stocks rebound and Meituan remains weak, funds are more likely to shift towards relatively stronger stocks, naturally reducing buying interest in Meituan.

The观望comments focus on several questions: First, whether it’s time to enter the market now. Second, whether it will drop to HKD 75. Third, if breaking below HKD 80 presents a buying opportunity. Fourth, when earnings will be announced. Fifth, whether reaching HKD 100 is still possible. These questions indicate that retail investors are waiting for direction amid low prices but can’t confirm whether this represents an opportunity to buy low or a continuation of weakness. Particularly around HKD 80, which has become a psychological threshold for the market. If both HKD 81.050 and HKD 80.250 fail to hold, discussions about a drop to HKD 75 will naturally heat up.

From a technical analysis perspective, the first key level for Meituan currently is HKD 81.050. With the stock trading at HKD 82.150, it’s not far from this support level. If the price continues to retreat in the short term, the market will soon test the support around HKD 81. Given that the lower band of the Bollinger Bands is near HKD 80.515, the range between HKD 80 and HKD 81 has become a crucial short-term defensive area. If this range holds, Meituan may still have a chance to consolidate at lower levels before rebounding, with initial resistance at HKD 84.242, followed by the pivotal level near HKD 84 to reclaim.

However, if 81.050 yuan fails, the next support will be near 80.250 yuan. This means that once Meituan breaks below 81 yuan, market attention will immediately turn to the psychological level of 80 yuan. If 80 yuan also fails to hold, technical weakness will deepen further, and the bearish comments mentioning the 70-yuan level will become the market’s next psychological focus. At this stage, we cannot say with certainty that it will drop to 75 yuan, but as soon as 80 yuan fails, panic and stop-loss sentiment among retail investors will significantly rise.

On the upside, 84 yuan is currently the most crucial pivot point. To improve its short-term weakness, Meituan needs more than just intraday rallies—it must break through and stabilize above 84 yuan. Since the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages are concentrated near 83.770 to 84.493 yuan, this area has formed a dense resistance zone. If the stock price can reclaim 84 yuan, it would indicate that short- to medium-term pressure is being alleviated, paving the way to challenge resistance at 86.998 yuan. If each rebound toward 83–84 yuan fails, the pattern of weak sideways movement will continue.

Therefore, Meituan’s current risk-reward ratio is moderately low. It is already close to the lower support zone, so blindly shorting at these levels in the short term isn’t advisable, but at the same time, there’s no clear sign of strengthening either, making heavy bets on a rebound near 80–81 yuan premature. A reasonable approach is to first monitor whether 81.050 yuan and 80.250 yuan can hold. If they do, the stock may rebound toward 84 yuan; breaking through and stabilizing above 84 yuan would signal improvement in the short-term structure. If support near 80 yuan fails, weakness will deepen further, intensifying market concerns about 75 yuan.

Overall, what Meituan needs most right now isn’t more price targets or narratives but a genuinely effective price recovery. Retail investors can continue to monitor capital flows, earnings reports, and any boosts from Alibaba or other tech stocks, but for short-term trading, three key levels remain critical: HKD 81 as the first support, HKD 80 as the psychological defense line, and HKD 84 as the watershed for turning strong. Until Meituan reclaims HKD 84, it remains in a weak sideways trend; if it breaks below HKD 80, caution must be taken against further weakness extending into the HKD 70s. At this stage, the most important thing is to control position sizes and wait for confirmation of direction instead of being swayed by emotions near HKD 82.

@He Qian Kan@何前看: Jinsilver can now be monitored, but one shouldn’t act solely based on a single signal. Meituan needs to first defend the area around HKD 81 and then see if it can break above HKD 84.

@Tianhanshishuan@天寒士欢: A high net buy doesn't necessarily mean an immediate rise; the current stock price is still below multiple moving averages. The key is whether it can recover to HKD 84.

@DailyEarningFoodMoney@每日搵餐飯錢: In a falling market, if the index is to be propped up by Meituan, the share price must not fall below HKD 81, otherwise the support will be insufficient.

@Happy Amber@快乐的安伯: Alibaba$BABA-W (09988.HK)$A surge in Alibaba's shares could emotionally boost Meituan, but before Meituan itself returns above HKD 84, we cannot confirm its upward movement.

Key Focus for Meituan-W (03690):

Strategy One | Stabilize at HKD 81.050 and bet on a range rebound

Strike Price: HKD 83.43 | Actual Leverage: 4.2x | Strike price close to the critical level of HKD 84. Suitable for betting on a short-term rebound to around HKD 84 after the stock price holds above HKD 81. This is a relatively close-to-current-price rebound strategy.

Strike price 83.38 yuan | Actual leverage 4.4 times | Similarly close to short-term resistance, slightly higher elasticity; suitable for capturing the first rebound after support holds steady, but not advisable to chase aggressively before breaking through 84 yuan.

Strike price 87.04 yuan | Actual leverage 5.3 times | Further from current price but not excessively out-of-the-money; suitable when the stock price stabilizes around 81 yuan and further challenges resistance at 86.998 yuan.

$HSMTUAN@EC2612B.C (27505.HK)$$BPMTUAN@EC2612D.C (26790.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EC2610D.C (28065.HK)$

Strategy Two | Bet on recovery to 86.998 yuan after breaking through 84 yuan

Strike price 90.05 yuan | Actual leverage 7.2 times | Higher leverage; suitable for chasing a rapid recovery after surpassing 84 yuan, targeting a move toward resistance at 86.998 yuan.

Strike price 90.05 yuan | Actual leverage 7.3 times | Higher elasticity; suitable for use after breaking through 84 yuan with strengthening trading momentum; more suited for short-term trend-following rather than holding prematurely during consolidation.

Strike price 93.05 yuan | Actual leverage 5.6 times | Higher strike price but more balanced leverage; suitable for gradual recovery after the stock price breaks through 84 yuan, rather than betting solely on an intraday sharp rebound. $UBMTUAN@EC2608C.C (26464.HK)$$HSMTUAN@EC2608C.C (26603.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EC2610C.C (26527.HK)$

Strategy Three | Bet on weakness after falling below 81.050 yuan

Strike price 82.83 yuan | Actual leverage 6.6 times | Strike price very close to current price; suitable for shorting toward 80.250 yuan after breaking below 81.050 yuan; reaction is more direct.

Strike price 82.88 yuan | Actual leverage 6.9 times | Higher leverage; suitable for capturing a sharp downward movement after breaking below support, but if the stock price moves back above 81 yuan, risk will be reflected quickly.

Strike price 77.83 yuan | Actual leverage 3.7 times | Lower strike price, milder leverage; suitable for bearish positioning without being overly aggressive; applicable scenario is repeated testing near 80 yuan after breaking below 81 yuan.

$UBMTUAN@EP2607A.P (21519.HK)$$CIMTUAN@EP2607A.P (20793.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EP2612A.P (23001.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should combine other information, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$

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