Finding an anchor point amidst the fission: with high oil prices, rising unemployment, and frozen consumer spending, what are the good investment targets left?

This is an era of division. On one side, surging oil prices, returning inflation, and shrinking consumption signal the crumbling of the old order; on the other, an explosive growth in AI computing power, a chip shortage, and tech giants massively ramping up capital expenditure herald the accelerated formation of a new world. Finding order within chaos and seeking relative certainty amid volatility is the task we must now accomplish.

I. The Fission of Old and New Worlds

On April 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve once again announced it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive 'wait-and-see' decision this year (Source: Federal Reserve FOMC Statement, April 29, 2026). What's stopping the Fed from cutting interest rates? In March, U.S. CPI rebounded from 2.4% to 3.3% year-over-year, with energy prices soaring 10.9% in a single month (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2026 CPI Report, April 10, 2026). The U.S., along with its allies, continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, while ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has dealt continuous blows to energy infrastructure. Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent crude oil average price forecast for March to April to $110 per barrel, a significant 62% increase from last year’s average (Source: Goldman Sachs Commodities Research Report, March 25, 2026). International agencies have thus found themselves sharply divided over their predictions for oil prices throughout 2026.

As for unemployment, appearances can be deceiving — at 4.3%, it's at a nine-month low (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Report, April 3, 2026) — but economists warn that this situation is unsustainable. From the latest Q1 2026 data, job vacancies in the U.S. have dropped to 6.866 million, with professional and business services seeing a sharp reduction of 318,000 positions, even as layoffs rise simultaneously (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS Report, April 28, 2026). The job market is quietly cooling down.

The situation in China is also far from optimistic. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by only 2.4% year-on-year, 2.6 percentage points lower than the GDP growth rate (Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Q1 2026 economic data, April 16, 2026). The retail growth rate in April is expected to further drop to 1.2% (Source: Monitoring data from China’s Ministry of Commerce, April 30, 2026). Consumers are becoming increasingly sensitive to external shocks – money loses value due to inflation, and they dare not spend.

II. The Twilight of the Old World

High interest rates, high inflation, and shrinking consumption—these signals have formed a rare “stagflationary shadow” on a global scale. However, unlike the stagflation of the 1970s, this time, the economic downturn has not been cushioned by traditional industries; instead, an unforeseen variable is reshaping the landscape.

III. The Truth Behind the Big Ledger: Explosive Growth in AI Capital Expenditure

While high inflation has dampened consumer spending, it has ignited another beacon – a surge in computing power demand.

Against this backdrop, tech giants have chosen to fully pivot towards infrastructure. The information disclosed in Q1 2026 earnings reports is nothing short of historic: Alphabet $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$, Amazon$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ , Meta $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ and Microsoft $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ The four tech giants are projected to spend between $650 billion and $725 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, with AI-related spending alone comparable to a country’s annual GDP (Source: Q1 2026 financial reports and management guidance from respective companies, late April 2026; Wall Street analysts’ consolidated estimates). NVIDIA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ reported a revenue of $215.9 billion for the fiscal year 2026, representing a 65% year-on-year increase (Source: NVIDIA FY2026 Annual Report, February 26, 2026). Taiwan Semiconductor $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ reported a 37% year-on-year revenue increase in January, and its Q1 net profit surged by 58.3% year-on-year (Source: TSMC monthly revenue report and Q1 2026 earnings release, April 16, 2026).

But this AI gamble is completely different from past tech expansions. In traditional economic logic, companies increase spending only when they see profits, whereas the current game in the AI industry is based on 'supply first, then demand'—large-scale capital expenditures are moving ahead of the demand curve.

Morgan Stanley’s March report, 'The Rotation of Bottlenecks in the Tech Industry,' outlined a clear path: HBM memory → EUV lithography machines → CPU orchestration → advanced packaging/substrates (Source: Morgan Stanley '2026 Tech Industry Outlook: Bottleneck Rotation,' March 10, 2026). Shortages in advanced packaging and 3nm process nodes are now fully erupting across core segments of the AI supply chain.

4. Storage 'Super Cycle': From Inventory Games to Strategic Assets

Take memory chips as an example; the industry is entering a historically rare 'super cycle.' SK Hynix $SK Hynix (000660.KR)$ made a pessimistic but realistic statement that left a deep impression: 'This year, not a single customer's demand can be fully met' (Source: SK Hynix Q1 2026 Earnings Call, April 24, 2026). High-bandwidth memory capacity for 2026 has already been sold out in advance, and extreme shortages in standard DRAM continue to raise suppliers' bargaining power. The industry has started long-term contracts to lock in future supplies (Source: TrendForce Memory Market Monthly Report, February 2026).

By April, Micron $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 's CEO issued a warning: AI's demand for DRAM and NAND will exceed 50% of the total memory market space this year, while the supply bottleneck will not ease significantly until 2028 (Source: Micron FY2026 Q2 Earnings Analyst Meeting, April 3, 2026). Samsung Memory $Samsung Electronics (005930.KR)$ 's head also warned that severe shortages will persist at least until 2027 (Source: Samsung Electronics Q1 2026 Earnings Call, April 29, 2026).

Memory has become a new 'strategic asset.'

Price hikes have already begun: DDR5 contract prices surged by about 200% in Q4 2025 and continued to rise by 80% in Q1 2026 (Source: DRAMeXchange Contract Price Statistics, March 2026). Spot prices for 16GB DDR5 rose another 2.8% in April alone (Source: TrendForce Spot Daily Report, April 30, 2026). IDC forecasts that the price hike cycle will extend through 2026, spreading into 2027 and 2028 (Source: IDC 'Semiconductor Memory Market Outlook' report, April 12, 2026).

5. The Battle for Chip Capacity: AI Transformation

But 'storage' is just the tip of the iceberg. Data from TrendForce shows that global 2.5D advanced packaging capacity is severely tight. Although the monthly production capacity of CoWoS is expected to increase to 115,000 wafers by the end of 2026, it remains insufficient in the face of NVIDIA's aggressive orders—advanced packaging has now surpassed wafer manufacturing itself to become the most critical bottleneck in the entire AI supply chain (Source: TrendForce Advanced Packaging Market Tracker Report, March 2026).

The scramble for capacity has triggered deep structural consequences—the continuous consumption of semiconductor resources by AI computing power is causing a widespread crowding-out effect. The traditional consumer electronics market has become the biggest victim. IDC data shows that global smartphone shipments fell by 6.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with the total annual shipments significantly reduced to approximately 1.1 billion units, marking an annual decline of 12.9% (Source: IDC Global Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker Report, April 26, 2026).On one side, AI production lines are running at full capacity throughout the year; on the other, consumer electronics are experiencing a broad cooling-off. This is today’s semiconductor industry—not a shrinking overall market, but an extreme tilt in supply structure toward AI. For Asia’s semiconductor 'golden supply chain'—Japanese equipment, Korean storage, ** contract manufacturing, and Chinese mainland packaging and testing—this represents premium pricing power within the landscape. $EFund A SEMICON ETF (03486.HK)$

6. Finding Anchors Amidst Fragmentation

Amid macroeconomic uncertainty, investors need more than blind pursuit of high growth—they must identify which supply chains are undergoing 'irreversible structural upgrades.'

If a global economic recession eventually outpaces the rise in computing demand, tech stocks may still fall with the broader market. However, every time the economy turns downward, we see Intel $Intel (INTC.US)$ and AMD $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ continuously extending CPU delivery cycles to six months (Source: Intel Q1 2026 Earnings Call, April 24, 2026; AMD Q1 2026 Executive Interview Post-Earnings, April 30, 2026), while Samsung and SK Hynix repeatedly warn of tightening supplies. This genuine hardware shortage is not a short-term bubble—it’s a profound reshaping of the industry’s structure.

Amid this contradictory era, E Fund Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited offers a multi-dimensional and layered framework for strategic asset allocation.

E Fund (Hong Kong) Solactive Asia Semiconductor Select Index ETF (3486) Focusing on the golden combination of Japanese equipment + Korean memory + ** contract manufacturing + Mainland China production, this ETF provides one-click exposure to three key scarce factors: control, bargaining power, and valuation discounts.

E Fund (Hong Kong) Wind Digital Technology Index ETF (3434) $EFUND DIGITAL ETF (03434.HK)$ With 30 stocks spanning Hong Kong and the US, it deeply covers digital infrastructure, digital asset trading, and intelligent fund management, directly targeting the core track of large-scale capital expenditure. (Source: E Fund Hong Kong product documentation, 2026.)

E Fund (Hong Kong) Solactive Biomedical Innovation Select Index ETF (3186) $EFund Biophar ETF (03186.HK)$ It is the world’s only* ETF that simultaneously invests in leading biopharmaceutical companies listed in both Hong Kong and the US. The Hong Kong-listed components capture China's growth potential as the second-largest pharmaceutical market, while the US portion taps into cutting-edge pharmaceutical R&D and commercialization capabilities worldwide, providing an important global allocation solution within this sector amid macroeconomic turbulence. (As of March 5, 2026, E Fund (Hong Kong) Biopharmaceutical ETF is currently the only ETF globally covering biopharmaceutical stocks listed in both Hong Kong and the US markets; if similar products are launched, the accuracy of this statement may change; this statement excludes non-listed funds and private equity funds; data sourced from Bloomberg. Source: E Fund Hong Kong product information and Solactive index compilation rules, March 2026.)

E Fund (Hong Kong) MSCI Asia Pacific Select High Dividend Index ETF (3483) $E FUND (HK) MSCI Asia Pacific Select High Dividend Index ETF (03483.HK)$ Since officially being included in Stock Connect on May 6, 2026, it balances high dividend yields with relatively stable cash flow assets, offering investors a core portfolio anchor worth holding long-term in the current environment of high interest rates and persistent inflation uncertainty. (Source: Hong Kong Exchange Stock Connect inclusion announcement, April 29, 2026.)

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The funds mentioned in this content are sub-funds under the E Fund ETF Trust. The E Fund ETF Trust is an umbrella unit trust established under Hong Kong law. Sub-funds fall under Chapter 8.6 of the Securities and Futures Commission's (SFC) 'Code on Unit Trusts and Mutual Funds,' which defines them as passively managed ETFs. Units of the sub-funds are traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange like stocks. The investment objective is to provide returns closely tracking the performance of the respective underlying indices (before fees and expenses).

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E Fund (Hong Kong) Solactive Asia Semiconductor Select Index ETF (3486) https://www.efunds.com.hk/tc/products/53/important/

As the Sub-fund’s investments are concentrated in securities of companies primarily engaged in specific sectors within the Hong Kong and East Asian semiconductor industries, it may be particularly affected by certain factors, thus exposing the Sub-fund to industry and geographic concentration risks. Therefore, its net asset value may be more volatile compared to broadly diversified funds.

EFund (Hong Kong) Wind Digital Technology Index ETF (3434) https://www.efunds.com.hk/tc/products/50/important/

Since the sub-fund tracks the performance of two regions (Mainland China and the United States) and focuses on the digital technology theme, it is subject to concentration risk. Compared with broadly-based funds (e.g., global equity funds), the sub-fund may be more volatile due to its greater susceptibility to adverse conditions in Mainland China and the United States or fluctuations in the technology sector impacting the index value. The value of the sub-fund may be more easily affected by settlement risks, custody risks, and unfavorable economic, political, policy, foreign exchange, liquidity, tax, legal, or regulatory events affecting the markets in Mainland China and the United States.

E Fund (Hong Kong) Solactive Biomedical Innovation Select Index ETF (3186) https://www.efunds.com.hk/tc/products/52/important/

As the sub-fund’s investments are concentrated in securities of biopharmaceutical companies in Hong Kong and the United States, which may be significantly impacted by technological changes, increased government regulation, and intense competition from rivals, the sub-fund is exposed to industry and geographic concentration risks. Therefore, its net asset value may experience higher volatility compared to broadly-based funds.

EFund (Hong Kong) MSCI Asia Pacific Select High Dividend Index ETF (3483) https://www.efunds.com.hk/tc/products/47/important/

Distributions from the sub-fund may be paid out of capital. Investors should note that paying distributions from capital is equivalent to returning or withdrawing part of an investor's original investment or any capital gains generated from such original investment, and such distributions will result in an immediate reduction in the net asset value of the relevant units.

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